US embassy cable - 04RANGOON1569

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001569 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREF, PHUM, BM, ASEAN 
SUBJECT: THAI PRIME MINISTER MEETS WITH SENIOR GENERAL THAN 
SHWE IN RANGOON 
 
REF: BANGKOK 08270 
 
Classified By: COM CARMEN MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B.D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  On December 9, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin 
Shinawatra visited Rangoon and met with State Peace and 
Development Council (SPDC) Chairman Senior General Than Shwe. 
Thaskin reportedly assured Than Shwe that Thailand would 
continue a policy of non-interference in Burma's internal 
affairs on such matters as prisoner releases, but Aung San 
Suu Kyi's continued house arrest was an international matter 
and needed to be resolved. The  RTG had been trying to 
arrange a Thaskin/Than Shwe meeting in Rangoon since the 
"Bangkok Process" fell apart in April and probably wanted to 
come away from the meeting with the feeling that some sort of 
useful dialog had been established.  According to the Thai 
Ambassador, Thaksin came to the conclusion that Than Shwe and 
his military regime "only manage the country, they do not 
make any policy" which Dhirakaosal elaborated as meaning that 
Than Shwe and the rest of the generals just focused on 
maintaining power with no vision for the future.    End 
summary. 
 
2. (C)   On the excuse of attending the "World Buddhist 
Summit" Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, visited 
Rangoon for four hours on December 9 at the invitation of 
Burmese Prime Minister Lt. General Soe Win and met with State 
Peace and Development Council (SPDC) Chairman Senior General 
Than Shwe.  According to Thailand's ambassador in Rangoon, 
Suphot Dhirakaosal, after a ceremonial appearance and speech 
at the opening ceremonies of the Summit, Thaksin was asked to 
cool his heels (steaming all the while, we are told) and wait 
for Than Shwe to greet the Laotian Prime Minister and 
Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister.  According to Dhirakaosal, 
the word from the Burmese was that, if Thaksin could not 
wait, he could meet with SPDC Vice-Chairman Maung Aye instead. 
 
3. (C)  When Thaksin and Than Shwe finally came together, in 
the closed fifty minute meeting Thaksin was accompanied only 
by Thai Foreign Minister Surakiat Sathirathai and by Thai 
Foreign Ministry official Minister Counselor Damrong 
Kraikruan (the senior working-level officer responsible for 
Burma affairs) as notetaker (although newspaper photos prior 
to the meeting show a ten member Thai delegation flanked by 
eight senior Burmese officials). Than Shwe was accompanied by 
Vice Senior General Maung Aye, Prime Minister Lt. General Soe 
Win, Lt. General Thein Sein (SPDC Secretary 1), and General 
Thura Shwe Man (Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces). 
According to Dhirakaosal (who was excluded), Thaskin wanted a 
small meeting and also wanted to signal the importance of 
civilian authority over the military by asking the military 
members of the Thai delegation to be "sent out."  Than Shwe 
also sent a message of how little importance the regime 
places on its Ministry of Foreign Affairs by dismissing the 
Burmese Foreign Minister from the meeting in which his Thai 
counterpart participated. 
 
4. (C)   According to Dhirakaosal, although Than Shwe seemed 
willing to engage in some discussion of the issues of 
democratization and economic reform,  Maung Aye took every 
opportunity to turn  any conversation to the need for 
internal stability and the danger posed by Aung San Suu Kyi 
(ASSK), the NLD, and other pro-democracy groups.  Dhirakaosal 
said that, according to Maung Aye, if ASSK were released the 
country could revert back to the days when the Burmese Army 
was fighting the Burmese Communist Party insurgency and "the 
rivers were filled with blood."  Maung Aye asked numerous 
times, "who will guarantee our internal stability?" 
 
5. (C)  Dhirakaosal said Thaskin had assured Than Shwe that 
Thailand would continue a policy of non-interference in 
Burma's internal affairs on such matters as prisoner 
releases, but that the matter of ASSK's continued house 
arrest was an international matter and needed to be resolved. 
 According to Dhirakaosal, Thaskin told Than Shwe it is a 
"matter of credibility."  Dhirakaosal added that he believed 
that PM Soe Win actually did not know that ASSK's house 
arrest had been extended when he was questioned about the 
matter at the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane and that the 
extension of ASSK's house arrest was an action of Maung Aye. 
Dhirakaosal also said that he was extremely skeptical that 
the number of released prisoners was anywhere near the 
regime's claim of over 9,000 (Note: the GOB now claims over 
14,000. End note.) and he felt it was unlikely the regime 
would provide any detailed information as to the names or 
whereabouts of the thousands allegedly freed. 
 
6. (C)  Dhirakaosal also said that Thaksin assured Than Shwe 
that Thailand would continue its policy of not harboring 
armed insurgents on its border with Burma.  According to 
Dhirakaosal, PM Thaksin did not raise matter of the 
negotiations between the regime and the Kachin National Union 
(KNU) because "the KNU have nothing to negotiate ... they are 
gone." 
 
7. (C)  Ambassador Dhirakaosal expressed his disappointment 
at the lack of any real substance resulting from the visit 
and irritation with Maung Aye's constant harping on the need 
for internal stability as a reason for not releasing Aung San 
Suu Kyi. Dhirakaosal characterized Thaksin as coming to the 
conclusion that Than Shwe and his military regime "only 
manage the country they do not make any policy"  which 
Dhirakaosal elaborated as meaning that Than Shwe and the rest 
of the generals just focused on maintaining power with no 
vision for the future.  According to Dhirakaosal, the idea of 
a second meeting of the Bangkok Process was not being 
considered until the regime had something to offer that would 
establish international credibility vis-a-vis the release of 
political prisoners and progress towards democratization. 
 
8. (C)   Comment:  Dhirakaosal was particularly frustrated by 
Maung Aye's ability to divert discussion from democratization 
and economic issues.  He conveyed the impression that the 
discussion between Thaksin and Than Shwe might have been more 
substantive on these matters absent the intervention of Maung 
Aye.  However, that Than Shwe and Maung Aye were playing good 
cop/bad cop (bad cop/ worse cop?) is also a strong 
possibility - allowing Than Shwe to avoid making any promises 
or concessions.  The  RTG had been trying to arrange a 
Thaskin/Than Shwe meeting in Rangoon since the Bangkok 
Process fell apart in April and probably wanted to come away 
from the meeting with the feeling that some sort of useful 
dialog had been established. Judging from Dhirakaosal's 
comments, it seems Thaksin has been disappointed. End 
Comment. 
 
9.  This cable was coordinated with Emabssy Bangkok. 
MARTINEZ