US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3944

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003944 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: South Taiwan Races Intense but Voters Subdued 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) On the eve of Taiwan's legislative elections, 
Southern Taiwan's races are intensely competitive, 
though most analysts predict little change in the 
overall Pan-Green/Pan-Blue ratio of seats here.  For 
all but the top one or two candidates in each district, 
the races in much of the South remain very close, with 
factors such as vote allocation, vote buying and the 
impact of independents, making the outcomes difficult 
to predict.  Overall voter interest is weak, however, 
with voter turnout expected to be low.  Violence, once 
a regular feature of Southern Taiwan elections, has 
been minimal.  Major rallies held in Kaohsiung City and 
County on December 9 featuring President Chen 
highlighted the twenty-fifth anniversary of the 
Kaohsiung Incident, but were remarkably subdued.  End 
Summary. 
 
Many Races Remain Too Close to Call 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) On the eve of Taiwan's legislative elections, 
many Southern Taiwan races remain too close to call, 
particularly in Kaohsiung City (11 seats) and County (9 
seats), and Tainan and Pingtung Counties (8 and 6 seats 
respectively).  In each of these areas, only a couple 
candidates appear strong enough to win with comfortable 
margins, with the bulk of the remaining candidates all 
within reach of the few thousand votes likely necessary 
to win a seat.  The impact of vote allocation 
arrangements, hidden vote buying, and independent 
candidates (who score high in name recognition, but may 
not necessarily do well at the polls), is 
unpredictable.  However, most local political analysts 
expect the overall current balance in Southern Taiwan 
between Pan-Green and Pan-Blue legislative seats to 
change very little.  Pan-Green parties currently hold 
28 of the 48 seats in Southern Taiwan, or just under 60 
percent. 
 
Rallies Marked Kaohsiung Incident Anniversary 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Major rallies were held by the ruling 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Kaohsiung County 
and City on December 9.  The rallies featured President 
Chen and other key DPP figures, including Premier Yu 
Hsi-kun, Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh, DPP Secretary 
General Chang Chun-hsiung, and Presidential Office 
Secretary General Su Tseng-chang.  In Kaohsiung County, 
 
SIPDIS 
Chen appeared on-stage with all five of the DPP's 
candidates and emphasized the importance of voters 
allocating their votes according to their 
identification card numbers, to ensure all five DPP 
candidates would win.  The two Taiwan Solidarity Union 
(TSU) candidates were not included, as the Pan-Green 
parties are not cooperating on vote allocation in 
Kaohsiung County. 
 
5.  (SBU) In Kaohsiung City, a march and rally on 
December 9 highlighted the 25th anniversary of the 
Kaohsiung Incident.  Attendance at the march was 
extremely low and, as a result, it was shortened. 
Attendance at the evening rally was also much lower 
than expected.  AIT/K estimates around 20,000, mostly 
older Pan-Green supporters, were present.  The crowd 
responded positively to President Chen's remarks, which 
reiterated familiar Chen campaign themes including the 
call for replacing "China" with "Taiwan" in the names 
of state-owned enterprises and overseas representative 
offices, which he pledged to push provided the Pan- 
Green had a legislative majority. 
 
6.  (SBU) Noting that he had been proud to serve as 
defense counsel to the victims of the Kaohsiung 
Incident, Chen urged voters to give the Pan-Green a 
legislative majority so Taiwan could continue its march 
toward democracy.  With a legislative majority, Chen 
said, he would move to put into place a constitution by 
2008 suitable for Taiwan's situation.  Chen also 
pledged to establish a Taiwan National Human Rights 
Commission, a National Human Rights Hall and a Taiwan 
Truth Investigation Committee.  The latter, Chen 
implied, would investigate events during KMT rule in 
which dissidents were mistreated, including the 
Kaohsiung Incident. 
 
7.  (SBU) Overall, participants were not nearly as 
enthusiastic as in similar rallies held earlier this 
year for the Presidential election.  Surprisingly, a 
significant number of participants actually stood up 
and left in the middle of President Chen's remarks, due 
to the late hour. 
 
Campaigning Intense, But Violence Minimal 
----------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Although the close races in many parts of the 
South have given a frenetic pace to some of the 
candidates' campaigns, there have been almost no 
clashes between supporters of opposing sides.  One 
exception was in Pingtung County on December 9, when a 
People-first Party (PFP) candidate led supporters to 
the local DPP headquarters to protest remarks by a DPP 
candidate.  Some pushing and shoving between protestors 
and Pan-Green supporters occurred, but police equipped 
with riot gear kept the two sides apart mostly.  There 
were a few injuries, but the incident did not last 
long.  Despite this and a few other confrontations that 
involved yelling between supporters of opposing 
candidates, there is no indication that any major 
violence is likely to occur. 
 
Low Voter Turnout Expected 
-------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Overall, the races in Southern Taiwan, even 
though intensely competitive, do not appear to have 
fired up the voters.  A common theme AIT/K has heard in 
discussions with local political officials and voters 
throughout the South is that there is little public 
interest and enthusiasm in this election, outside of 
core campaign workers.  Weariness from the presidential 
campaign and its aftermath earlier this year is a major 
factor.  Also, the low public opinion of the 
legislature is also playing a role; a just-released 
Gallup/Transparency International poll showed 63 
percent of Taiwan voters consider the Taiwan 
legislature as the institution most influenced by 
corruption.  None of the local party officials or 
political analysts AIT met expected voter turnout in 
this election to exceed 65 percent, and in many areas 
expected it to be closer to 60 percent. 
 
Comment - Another Vigorous Taiwan Election 
------------------------------------------ 
 
10.  (SBU) The intensely-waged campaigns underway in 
Southern Taiwan for tomorrow's legislative election 
demonstrate again the vitality of Taiwan's democracy. 
The lack of violence, once common in hotly-contested 
Taiwan elections in the South, is notable.  It may 
reflect a maturing of the democratic process here, with 
election campaigns being seen more and more as a 
regular, routine part of political life.  On the other 
hand, it may also be a result of the general lower 
level of interest and enthusiasm local voters have 
demonstrated toward this year's legislative campaigns. 
 
Forden