US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3940

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 003940 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: PAN-BLUE BEATS EXPECTATIONS AND RETAINS MAJORITY 
IN LY 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) The Pan-Blue alliance lost only one seat and retained 
a majority with 114 of 225 seats, a surprising performance in 
the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY) election.  Most 
commercial and internal party polls, as well as analytical 
assessments (including AIT's) had expected the Pan-Blue 
alliance to suffer more significant losses, possibly enough 
to give the rival Pan-Green the majority.  Instead, the 
Pan-Green alliance gained only one seat, bringing it to a 
total of 101 seats.  The Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NPSU) 
took six seats and the remaining four seats went to 
independents.  Voter turnout reached a record low at 59 
percent, seven points below the 2001 LY election and 21 
percent lower than the March 20 presidential election. 
Septel will assess the policy implications of the new LY 
makeup. 
 
2. (C) Although the overall balance in the LY barely changed 
in this election, there were significant shifts within both 
alliances, with the major parties consolidating power at the 
expense of their junior partners.  The Democratic Progressive 
Party (DPP) captured 89 seats, a gain of two, and the Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) took 12, a loss of one.  The biggest 
winner, however, was the Kuomintang (KMT), which won 79 
seats, a gain of eleven, entirely at the expense of the 
People First Party (PFP), which took 34 seats, down twelve 
from its previous 46.  The New Party (NP) incumbent on Kinmen 
Island held onto the last Pan-Blue seat. 
 
3. (C) Comment: The KMT's success in this election is the 
result of KMT restraint and TSU recklessness.  The KMT 
decided to adopt a conservative nomination strategy.  It 
nominated a total of 74 candidates for the district elections 
this year, down from 101 in 2001.  The DPP, by contrast, 
increased its nominations from 83 in 2001 to 92 this year. 
It might have been successful in reaching its goals had the 
TSU not been so aggressive, nominating far more candidates 
 
SIPDIS 
than they could reasonably expect to win.  Throughout the 
campaign, DPP officials were confident in their chances 
because they assumed the TSU would not win a significant 
share of the vote. 
 
4.  However, the last week of the campaign saw a surge in 
support for the TSU, largely at the expense of the DPP.  Most 
of the TSU candidates who benefited, however were too 
numerous to get elected, but they often pulled several 
previously secure DPP candidates under the election threshold 
with them.  It is likely that the DPP might have won as many 
as six or seven additional seats without this TSU 
overnomination, pulling the Pan-Green even with the Pan-Blue. 
 The PFP's nomination strategy was actually the most 
conservative of all the parties, generally aiming only to 
hold onto its existing seats.  Nevertheless, it suffered 
throughout the election from flagging popularity and many of 
its supporters in the end returned to the KMT fold. 
PAAL