US embassy cable - 04TEGUCIGALPA2757

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 002757 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC, EB/TPP, INR/B AND DRL/IL 
STATE PASS USTR 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAM 
DOL FOR ILAB 
GUATEMALA FOR AGATT SHUETE 
TREASURY FOR DDOUGLASS 
ROME for Embassy The Vatican 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, ECON, PGOV, EAID, KIPR, EAGR, ELAB, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: CAFTA Debate Heats Up Ahead of Possible December 15 
Vote; Ratification Remains Likely But Vote Could Be Delayed 
 
REF: A) Tegucigalpa 2483 
 
     B) Tegucigalpa 2315 
 
1.  Summary:  As the Honduran Congress considers CAFTA and 
moves closer to a vote, both supporters and opponents of the 
agreement have been making their views known in public fora 
and through the press.  In recent weeks CAFTA has been 
publicly denounced by Roman Catholic Cardinal Oscar 
Rodriguez (considered to be one of the leading Latin 
American candidates to be the next Pope), campesino leaders, 
and a ruling party congressmen, who is a presidential 
candidate.  In response, administration officials have 
stepped up their efforts at outreach and promotion, ahead of 
a ratification vote which they hope will take place on 
December 15.  Though the opposition has turned up the volume 
on their objections, administration officials are still 
expressing confidence that CAFTA will be approved.  Post 
also expects that the National Congress will approve CAFTA 
when it votes on this issue.  The vote could be delayed 
until late January/early February.  End summary. 
 
2.  In the weeks since October 28, when legislation for the 
approval of U.S.-Central America Free Trade Agreement 
(CAFTA) was submitted to Congress (ref A), groups and 
individuals opposed to CAFTA have increasingly been making 
very vocal public statements to express their opposition to 
the agreement. 
 
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Cardinal Rodriguez: CAFTA "Anything but free" 
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3.  On November 26, in comments widely covered by the 
Honduran press, Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez declared that the 
so-called Free Trade Agreement is "anything but free". 
While attending the annual assembly for Central American 
bishops in Costa Rica, Rodriguez stated that CAFTA "is only 
free for the party which has power, and Central Americans do 
not.  How can we talk about free trade when protectionism 
persists in the United States?" 
 
4.  Rodriguez acknowledged that the agreement will provide 
benefits for certain sectors of the Central American 
economies, but not, he claimed, to the agricultural sector, 
where poor Central American farmers will be forced to 
compete against subsidized products from the United States. 
"It will be impossible for our farmers to compete under 
these conditions." 
 
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Campesino Organization: "An Economic Conquest" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  The General Secretary of the Coordinating Council for 
Honduran Campesino Organizations (COCOCH), Felix Vasquez, 
has announced that a march on Congress will be held December 
14, the day before administration officials say that 
Congress will vote on CAFTA.  Speaking to the press on 
December 1, Vasquez denounced CAFTA as an "economic 
conquest" of Honduras, saying that "small and medium-sized 
businesses will disappear, since no protection of our 
products or our markets was negotiated" in the agreement. 
Vasquez claims to have collected ten thousand signatures on 
a petition against CAFTA, which he hopes to present to 
President of the Congress (and National Party presidential 
candidate) Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo at the culmination of the 
march on December 14. 
 
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Gilberto Goldstein: "CAFTA is premature" 
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6.  The only presidential candidate to have spoken publicly 
about CAFTA is National Party Congressman Gilberto Goldstein 
(considered to have very little chance of winning his 
party's nomination).  Goldstein came out against CAFTA in 
comments published in the press on November 29, arguing that 
the details of the agreement have not been sufficiently 
explained to all sectors of the Honduran economy, and that 
poor Honduran farmers have not been adequately trained and 
prepared for the transition that CAFTA will bring.  He 
further suggested that Central America is politically 
unready for such an agreement, saying that, "Before signing 
any commercial treaty that involves all Central Americans, 
we should first solidify and unify ourselves, we who form 
the great Republic of Central America, in which we have 
invested 50 years without achieving our desired goal." 
 
7.  Comment: While Post understands that President of the 
Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is working closely to promote 
congressional approval of CAFTA, neither he nor any of the 
other leading presidential candidates, such as National 
Party candidate Miguel Pastor or leading Liberal Party 
candidate Mel Zelaya, have spoken publicly about the 
agreement.  See septel for reporting on their comments 
during private meetings with EmbOffs.  End Comment. 
 
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GOH Continues to Get Its Message Out 
------------------------------------ 
 
8.  At the same time, administration officials have 
intensified their efforts to promote CAFTA and explain its 
contents to a skeptical public.  (Note:  A September CID- 
Gallup poll put public support for CAFTA in Honduras at 49 
percent, the lowest level of support in Central America. End 
Note.)  Minister of Trade and Industry Norman Garcia and 
Minister of Agriculture Mariano Jimenez have now held closed- 
door outreach meetings with every party in Congress (ref B), 
though some Congressmen still complain to the press that 
they lack a sufficient understanding of the agreement. 
Other GOH officials, including the Minister-Advisor for 
Promotion of Foreign Investment Camilo Atala and the usually 
reticent Chief CAFTA Negotiator Melvin Redondo, have been 
appearing on radio and television news programs explaining 
the benefits of CAFTA.  In the last week of November the 
Ministry of Trade and Industry published a special six-page 
section in all four national newspapers, entitled "Myths and 
Realities About the Free Trade Agreement." 
 
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Pushing for a December 15 Vote 
------------------------------ 
 
9.  Minister Garcia told EconOffs that Congress will vote on 
CAFTA on December 15, and other Trade Ministry officials say 
that President Ricardo Maduro has scheduled a meeting with 
congressional leaders to discuss the agreement on December 
14.  Melvin Redondo has even announced the December 15 date 
publicly, a clear sign that administration officials are 
pushing Congress to act before the year-end recess. 
However, National Party Congressman Juan Orlando Hernandez, 
the "Whip" of the Congress, has said that a vote on CAFTA is 
unlikely during the week of December 13-17, as there is 
still some vocal opposition to the agreement, including 
within the National Party delegation.  According to 
Hernandez, while the executive branch is pushing for a quick 
vote on the agreement, congressmen, who have to face voters 
soon on the issue (primary elections are in February 2005), 
are much more reluctant. 
 
Pierce