US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1603

UNCLAS MAPUTO 001603 
 
SIPDIS 
MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 
SENSITIVE 
FOR AF/FO AND AF/S 
MCC PASS TO BRIGGS AND GAULL 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, MZ, Guebuza, Elections 04 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBICAN GENERAL ELECTIONS: PARALLEL VOTE 
TABULATION GIVES WIN TO GUEBUZA 
 
REF: MAPUTO 1587 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Not for Internet Distribution 
 
1. (U) On December 9 the Carter Center-supported National 
Electoral Observatory released its parallel vote tabulation 
(PVT). The PVT, based on a sample of 775 individual polling 
station results collected by 1600 observers, gives FRELIMO's 
Guebuza 63.6 percent of the presidential vote, with RENAMO's 
Dhlakama garnering a mere 31.7 percent. FRELIMO came out the 
winnner in the parliamentary races too, with 60 percent 
compared to 29 percent for the RENAMO-UE coaltion. No other 
party reached the five percent threshold of parliamentary 
votes needed to qualify to win seats in the National 
Assembly. According to the Carter Center, the PVT has a 
three percent margin of error. Within this margin it should 
accurately represent the actual vote. The Observatory's 
report, however, points to the need to investigate anomalous 
voter turnout in Changara, Tete province (refs). 
 
2. (SBU) Later on December 9, during a radio interview with 
the BBC, Dhlakama rejected the validity of the PVT, asserting 
it was based on fraudulent data. Dhlakama also called for 
new elections, with President Chissano to remain in office 
another 6 months until the results of a repeat election could 
be "sorted out." Dhlakama claimed massive fraud, citing 
cases of intimidation, ballot stuffing, and manipulation of 
polling results during the tabulation process. (Comment: 
Though ballot stuffing appears to be a plausible explanation 
for the unlikely results in Changara and in one or two other 
places, we have not received credible reports of widespread 
intimidation or of tampering with the tabulation process. 
End comment.) 
 
3. (SBU) Under law, provincial election results should have 
been announced by December 9. No province met this deadline. 
Vote tabulation at the national level, with partial results 
from the provinces, began in Maputo on December 8. However 
it was halted shortly after it began due to technical 
difficulties and was not resumed until late in the afternoon 
of December 9. 
LA LIME