US embassy cable - 04ACCRA2401

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002401 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, GH 
SUBJECT: KUFUOR AND NPP STILL LEAD IN GHANA'S ELECTION 
 
REF: A. A) ACCRA 7444 B) ACCRA 2366 
 
     B. C) ACCRA 2367 D)ACCRA 2390 
 
Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e. 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  As of 4:30 pm on December 9, with 185 of 
230 constituency results reported, President Kufuor of the 
New Patriotic Party (NPP) remains in the lead in Ghana's 
December 7 election. The NPP has won 114 parliamentary seats. 
The Electoral Commission is expected to officially declare a 
winner by late December 9 or early December 10. The NDC has 
challenged JoyFM radio station's decision to call the 
election for Kufuor. Despite former President Rawlings' 
reported attack on the fairness of the election, NDC leader 
Mills is likely to concede defeat peacefully.  We and several 
other missions will issue a statement of support for this 
election once results are final.  End summary. 
 
Updated Results 
--------------- 
 
2. (U) JoyFM has already called the presidential race for 
President Kufuor.  However, the opposition NDC disputes this 
finding.  As of 4:30 pm local time, the Electoral Commission 
had not announced a final winner.  JoyFM reports the 
following results, based on counting at 185 of a total of 230 
constituencies: 
 
Presidential 
------------ 
 
Candidate               Percentage Vote 
 
John Kufuor (NPP)                   54.2 
John Evans Atta Mills (NDC)         43.0 
Edward Mahama (PNC)                 1.84 
George Aggudey (CPP)                0.86 
 
Parliamentary 
------------- 
 
(185 of total 230 seats contested) 
 
Party       Number of Seats Won As of 
 
NPP         114 
NDC         68 
PNC         4 
CPP         1 
 
Police Perspective on Violence 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (SBU)  In a meeting December 8, Ghana's Deputy Inspector 
General of Police Patrick Achaempong told PolChief that he 
was pleased there was little violence during the election. 
He clarified that there was one incident of significant 
violence on the eve of the election and three serious 
incidents of violence on election day, resulting in a total 
of six deaths.  On December 6, false rumors spread in one 
constituency of the Volta region that the Regional Minister 
and his campaign manager were thumb printing ballots in the 
campaign manager's house.  In response, a mob vandalized the 
house.  A supporter of the local independent candidate was 
killed and three others injured (one of whom later died from 
his injury).  Achaempong confirmed that two people were 
killed on election day in Tolon, near Tamale, although he was 
not clear whether they died from election-related violence or 
from an ethnic dispute.  The Electoral Commission office in 
Tolon was torched.  In the nearby Kumbungu constituency on 
December 7, a group of motorcycling NPP supporters argued 
that minors were being allowed to vote at one polling 
station.  One of them shot to death an NDC supporter and was 
subsequently lynched by a local crowd, reportedly supporters 
of the NDC.  Achaempong also confirmed media reports of a 
shooting in Bawku town, Upper East region, when a 
parliamentarian initially could not find her name on the 
register.  An unknown person shot one of her two soldier 
bodyguards, slightly injuring him. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Achaempong thought it unlikely there would be 
significant violence in the post-election period, especially 
since it appears there will be no second round of voting. 
Tamale remains somewhat tense.  NDC and NPP supporters in 
Tamale fired shots into the air last night, either out of 
jubilation or frustration.  A UNDP contact told PolChief he 
saw around 500 NDC supporters driving through Tamale on the 
evening of December 8.  There were a few other incidents of 
shots being fired with no injuries on election day in the 
Tamale area.   An Electoral Commission office was burnt down 
in Brong Ahafo region on December 8.  There could be other 
minor incidents of election-related violence in the coming 
few days. 
Statements from Foreign Missions 
-------------------------------- 
 
5. (U)  We plan to issue a congratulatory statement in 
support of this election once the results are final.  The EU 
and Canada are preparing similar statements.  The UNDP plans 
to issue an informal election report to the Electoral 
Commission.  Some independent British Members of Parliament 
who observed the election may also issue statements. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (SBU)  At this point, Kufuor looks likely to win a first 
round victory.  The NPP has already improved its position in 
parliament (from 103 to 114).  The NPP did well in Central, 
Western, Ashanti, Eastern, and Brong Ahafo regions, while the 
NDC swept Upper East, Upper West, Volta and Northern regions. 
 We will report with more analysis of the results on December 
10. 
 
7.  (C)  NDC leader and former president J.J. Rawlings has 
left Ghana for a previous engagement in Congo Brazzaville. 
On December 8, his Public Affairs Director issued a statement 
that Rawlings questioned the election results and believed 
"the NPP was hell-bent on stealing the 2004 elections by 
manipulating its outcome through diverse, fraudulent and 
corrupt means." It is not clear whether Rawlings authorized 
this statement, although it tracks with statements he made 
before the election.  The NDC has urged patience until the EC 
declares certified results.  Despite Rawlings' alleged 
ranting, the size of the victory and the generally peaceful, 
free manner of the election (with thousands of domestic 
observers and intense media scrutiny) leave little room for 
the NDC to dispute the overall outcome.  Our statement and 
those of other foreign missions will also reinforce Ghana's 
election outcome.  NDC candidate Mills, assuming he loses, 
will likely concede defeat peacefully. 
YATES