US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3919

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003919 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION REGIONAL OVERVIEW 
 
REF: TAIPEI 03898 
 
Classified By: AIT Director David J. Keegan, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The projected shift in the balance of power 
between the Pan-Green and Pan-Blue camps in the Legislative 
Yuan (LY) reflects changing electoral dynamics within 
Taiwan's five main regions.  In the north the two sides will 
likely split the vote as they did in the last LY elections 
held in 2001.  The Hakka districts and central Taiwan, in 
comparison, are where the Pan-Green is poised to make the 
biggest gains and where the contest is being played out most 
fiercely.   The south continues to be dark Green and the 
Pan-Green will have difficulty further whittling down the 
already meager Pan-Blue presence.  The smaller east coast 
districts, outlying islands, and the aborigine vote continue 
under Pan-Blue domination, although the Pan-Green could make 
some minor inroads. End Summary. 
 
Pan-Green Seeking to Capitalize on Presidential Gains 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
2. (C) Having made large gains in traditionally Pan-Blue 
strongholds during the presidential election earlier this 
year, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) hopes to parlay 
that support into a majority in the LY.  Although most 
analysts place the Pan-Green about three seats shy of a 
majority, the Green is likely to deprive the Pan-Blue of its 
current majority (See Reftel for an overview of the 
island-wide numbers).  The Pan-Green has run a well 
orchestrated campaign.  Although it could be hurt by 
overnominations in the north, it is likely to hold its 
commanding lead in the south and erode most of the Pan-Blue 
advantage in the Hakka districts and central Taiwan, where it 
picked up 40 and 50 percent, respectively, of the popular 
vote in the presidential election this year.  In comparison, 
the Pan-Blue has nominated conservatively, but is suffering 
from organizational challenges and renegade candidates that 
will siphon off traditionally Blue votes. 
 
Northern Taiwan: Splitting the Big Prize 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) With a total of 48 seats in Taipei County (28 seats, 
one more than the last election) and Taipei City (20 seats), 
northern Taiwan has been a site of fierce fighting.  The 
north, nevertheless, appears likely to repeat the 2001 split 
between the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green, going 24-23 in the Blue's 
favor with one independent.  In Taipei County (but not city) 
the Pan-Blue parties have shown remarkable restraint in 
coordinating their nominations, resulting in a strong slate 
of candidates.  The Pan-Green, by contrast, has nominated 
aggressively in all northern districts, hoping to get closer 
to their goal of a majority.  With successful vote 
distribution in Taipei County, the Pan-Green might be able to 
take an extra seat, but it seems more likely that the 
unusually disciplined Pan-Blue will win an additional seat or 
two, shifting the balance in the county from its current 
14-13 favoring the Pan-Green to a 14-14 split or even 13-15. 
Equally under pressure in Taipei City, the Pan-Green will be 
struggling to preserve its 9 seats while the Pan-Blue is 
likely to win 10 seats and may pick up one more at the DPP's 
expense, with the last seat going to a Blue-leaning 
independent. 
 
The Hakka Districts: DPP Eating Away at Blue Advantage 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4. (C) Heavily populated by the ethnic Hakka minority, the 
counties of Taoyuan (13 seats), Hsinchu (3 seats), and Miaoli 
(4 seats) and the city of Hsinchu (3 seats) hold a total of 
23 seats and have been the focus of the DPP administration's 
efforts to expand beyond its ethnic Taiwanese base.  The 
DPP's campaign to recruit more Hakka grass-roots support and 
promote Hakka cultural events yielded marked gains in the 
presidential election this year and will likely translate 
into more legislative seats on December 11.  In Taoyuan 
County the DPP is poised to gain one seat at the expense of 
the People First Party (PFP), which will lose one or two 
seats, reducing the current 8-5 Pan-Blue advantage to 7-6. 
In Hsinchu and Miaoli Counties the DPP has a good chance of 
improving upon its previous performance, reversing the 2-1 
Pan-Blue lead in Hsinchu to 1-2 and reducing the 3-1 Pan-Blue 
advantage to a 2-2 draw.  Hsinchu City remains the only area 
where the status quo, 2-1 in favor of the Blue, will remain 
intact. 
 
Central Taiwan: Battleground to Produce a Draw 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5. (C)  Central Taiwan, with a total of 39 seats (one more 
than the last election), is where the previous 20-15 Pan-Blue 
advantage, with 3 independents, is most likely to be reduced 
to a slim 18-17 Pan-Blue margin with 4 independents.  The DPP 
will be seeking to duplicate its success in the presidential 
election, when it boosted its support in these districts, and 
will depend on the effectiveness of its vote allocation 
system.  The Kuomintang (KMT) will need its grassroots 
organizations to remain a force in voter mobilization to 
fight off the challenge.  In Taichung City (8 seats, one more 
than the last election) the Pan-Green has 3 safe seats versus 
4 seats for the Pan-Blue, with the remaining seat likely to 
go to a Green-leaning independent, making for an effective 
4-4 split.  In Taichung County (11 seats) the DPP recently 
decided to "forsake" (chi-pao) one of its candidates and 
increased its changes of drawing a 5-5 split with the 
Pan-Blue, a reduction from the current 6-4 Pan-Blue 
advantage, with one independent getting the remaining seat. 
 
6. (C) In Changhua (10 seats) and Nantou (4 seats) Counties, 
the Pan-Green has nominated several incumbents and added 
strong moderates in the hopes of taking an extra seat.  The 
KMT, by comparison, has overnominated, and the presence of 
ex-KMT mavericks threatens to undermine its position. 
Nevertheless, the most likely outcome for both counties 
appears to be a repeat of the status quo from 2001: a 5-4 
Pan-Blue advantage in Changhua with 1 independent and a 2-2 
draw in Nantou.  Yunlin County (6 seats), where vote-buying 
and criminal gangs reign supreme, is the hardest county to 
predict, but will likely go 3-2 in the Pan-Green's favor with 
one independent, a reversal of the current 3-2 Pan-Blue 
advantage. 
 
Southern Taiwan: Pan-Green Reached Saturation Point? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
7. (C) Most analysts see little prospect for major changes in 
the south, where seven counties and cities combine for a 
total 46 seats (one less than the last election).  The DPP 
made significant gains in its traditional stronghold three 
years ago, and is basically looking to hold ground.  Analysts 
estimate the Pan-Green could drop one seat, but the Pan-Blue 
can lose two seats, with one seat moving out of the region 
and another two going to independents.  This would actually 
raise the Green margin of victory over the Blue from 11 seats 
(28-17 with two independents three years ago) to 12 seats 
(27-15 this year with four independent). The Pan-Green is 
likely to pick up seats in Kaohsiung County, where the 
unexpectedly high vote total of then-DPP newcomer Lin Tai-hua 
led to the defeat of two other DPP candidates.  This time, 
the DPP is working to spread the Green votes more evenly and 
is taking advantage of a KMT nomination blunder.  After LY 
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng decided to run on the proportional list 
for this election and the KMT did not nominate a candidate 
from Wang's local network, the Taiwan Solidary Union (TSU) 
has lured parts of Wang's grassroots supporters to its side. 
The DPP is faring less well in those areas where the Pan-Blue 
overnominated in the last election, especially Kaohsiung City 
and Tainan County.  It expects to lose 1-3 seats in these 
areas. 
 
East Coast and the Rest: Still Going Blue 
----------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The east coast counties and cities (9 seats), three 
outlying island chains (3 seats), and the aborigine 
island-wide districts (8 seats) have long been, and continue 
to be, the preserve of the Pan-Blue.  Keelung City (3 seats), 
Haulien County (2 seats), and Taitung County (1 seat) are 
very predictable races with the Pan-Blue maintaining its 2-1, 
1-1, and 1-0 advantage.  Ilan County (3 seats, down 1 from 
the last election), is the only place where the DPP can 
increase its lead over the Pan-Blue by coming out with a 2-1 
advantage.  The single-seat island districts will go to the 
KMT (Kinmen district), PFP (Lienchiang), and former KMT 
independent (Penghu).  Despite its efforts to lobby aborigine 
groups, the DPP has made little headway in penetrating 
grassroots organizations and has only one secure aborigine 
seat out of the 8, an increase of one over its previous zero 
baseline. 
 
Comment: Will the Trend Continue? 
--------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Occupying the executive seat of government since 2000, 
the DPP has poured resources into the northern, Hakka, and 
central districts in the hopes of expanding its own support 
and weaning local interests away from the remnants of the 
KMT's organizational base.  Those efforts began to bear fruit 
in the 2004 presidential election, will likely translate into 
marked gains in the LY, and could continue in next year's 
mayor and county magistrate elections.  AIT has already begun 
to see some Pan-Blue county magistrates in these districts 
taking a more circumspect role in the local LY races with an 
eye toward their own re-election campaign next year.  These 
critical local leaders want to retain, even increase, their 
county's access to central largesse and to avoid alienating 
centrist and light green voters they will need in 2005.  The 
recent defection of Taitung County magistrate from the PFP to 
the DPP and the rumors that the Hsinchu County magistrate 
will also shift loyalties after the LY election suggest 
Pan-Blue strongholds will be coming under increasing 
pressure. 
PAAL