US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3917

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003917 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: SOUTHERN TAIWAN 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 03340 
 
     B. TAIPEI 03867 (AIT/K) 
 
Classified By: AIT Kaohsiung Principal Officer Robert W. Forden, Reason 
: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Heading into the last few days of the 
Legislative Yuan (LY) campaign, little change is expected 
overall in Taiwan's southern districts, the Pan-Green's 
traditional stronghold.  Southern Democratic Progressive 
Party (DPP) officials say the party already reached the point 
of "saturation" in the 2001 election and assess that there is 
little territory to be gained.  Tactical maneuvers in areas 
such as nomination strategy and "peipiao" vote allocation 
schemes will likely result in gains and losses in individual 
districts, but overall these will probably even out, giving 
neither side a significant net gain in the south.  The real 
battlegrounds in this year's contest for control of the LY 
will be in northern and central Taiwan.  End Summary. 
 
KMT/DPP Balance Not Likely to Change in Chiayi 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (C) Chiayi City's two seats are currently divided between 
the DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT) and both incumbents are 
running for reelection.  The KMT's Huang Ming-hui seems 
assured of keeping his seat, because the People First Party 
(PFP)'s decision not to field a candidate means he faces no 
serious competition for the Pan-Blue share of the vote.  In 
contrast the DPP's incumbent, former Formosa TV Chairman 
Trong Chai (Tsai Tong-rong), faces an unusual Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) rival for the Pan-Green vote.  The 
TSU's Ling Tzu-chu is an attractive, well-spoken 
 
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second-generation Mainlander and retired military officer who 
now owns an English cram school and runs a radio station. 
However Chai, also an outspoken advocate for Taiwan 
independence, seems likely to be able to fend off this threat 
and keep his seat. 
 
3. (C) Three of Chiayi County's four seats are currently held 
by the DPP, and the KMT's decision to run three newcomers 
means it will likely stay that way.  Of the three, Weng 
Chung-chun, who has the endorsement of the incumbent, is the 
only one expected to win.  Even the KMT County Chairman, Huan 
Chung-hsien, acknowledges that the other two nominees are 
long-shots, as the party has only "enough votes for one and a 
half candidates."  DPP incumbent Chang Hua-guan and newcomer 
Lin Kuo-chin are widely expected to win, but the other DPP 
incumbent, Tsai Chi-fang, is in danger of losing to Ho 
Jing-sung, an incumbent DPP maverick running for the 
Non-partisan Solidarity Union (NSU), or to the TSU's nominee. 
 
Tainan City Incumbents All Safe 
------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Observers on both sides expect that all six of Tainan 
City's incumbents will win re-election, maintaining the 
current 4-2 Pan-Green advantage.  The three DPP candidates 
and one TSU candidate agreed early in the campaign to 
distribute votes in a "peipiao" vote allocation strategy, 
which they believe will assure them of victory (See Ref A for 
more on the importance of "peipiao").  The KMT's two nominees 
also seem on track for reelection.  The biggest variable, 
however, will be the performance of the PFP's nominee, Kao 
Szo-po.  Because the Pan-Blue have not settled on an 
inter-party peipiao scheme, it is unlikely Kao will be able 
to take one of the Pan-Green seats.  He is far more likely to 
displace one of the KMT nominees, but his chances of even 
that are slim because of the PFP's unpopularity in Tainan. 
 
DPP May Lose a Seat in Tainan County ... 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The DPP seems unlikely to repeat its surprise success 
in the last election in winning five of the eight Tainan 
County LY seats.  At that time, the KMT heavily 
overnominated, and four of its six candidates lost by just a 
few thousand votes each.  This time, the KMT hopes to take 
back some of that territory by nominating only four 
candidates.  Additionally, Lee Ho-Shun, an at-large KMT 
legislator who failed to get renominated, is running under 
the NSU banner.  The DPP nominated all four incumbents (the 
fifth seat was vacated by Mark Chen when he was appointed 
Foreign Minister) as well as one newcomer.  Most observers 
expect the county to split 4-4 this time because of the KMT's 
conservative nomination strategy.  However, the current 5-3 
Pan-Green advantage might be maintained if the PFP nominee 
diverts enough votes from KMT candidates to give a seat to 
the dark-horse TSU candidate, college professor Tseng 
Hsing-chao. 
 
... And One or Two More in Kaohsiung City 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The Pan-Green is even less likely to repeat its 
impressive 2001 victory in Kaohsiung City, where captured 
eight of eleven LY seats.  As in Tainan, the Pan-Green's 
success in Kaohsiung was largely a result of the Pan-Blue's 
mistakes, including reckless overnomination.  This time the 
KMT and PFP have nominated more conservatively and the 
Pan-Green will struggle just to hold onto seven seats.  It 
could drop to six or even five if its "peipiao" strategy is 
not implemented well.  Lately, some of the leading candidates 
in both the DPP and the TSU have begun complaining about 
their parties' widely-publicized peipiao plans. 
Additionally, there are two Pan-Green leaning independents 
who are doing well in the polls and who might undermine 
support for the DPP and TSU.  However, the Pan-Blue is not 
widely expected to make large gains because it faces threats 
from ex-KMT mavericks and independents as well.  It seems 
therefore that the most probable outcome is for the DPP and 
TSU to lose a seat or two, but more likely to Pan-Green 
 
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leaning independents rather than to the KMT or PFP.  These 
will, then, likely vote with the Pan-Green once the LY 
convenes. 
 
Big Gains for DPP in Kaohsiung County 
------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) The Pan-Green faces nearly the opposite situation in 
Kaohsiung County (Ref B), which is currently split 5-4 in 
favor of the Pan-Blue.  In 2001, poor nomination strategy and 
vote distribution lost the DPP two seats to the KMT that it 
might otherwise have won.  This year the DPP is expected to 
do a much better job allocating votes among its five 
candidates and will likely get all of them, plus one TSU 
candidate elected.  These gains will come largely at the 
expense of the KMT's three nominees, of whom only one is 
likely to be reelected.  The PFP's two candidates, with solid 
bases of support in the ethnic Mainlander and Hakka 
communities, are expected to keep their seats. 
 
Musical Chairs in Pingtung - DPP May Lose a Seat 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
8. (C) Rural Pingtung County's declining population resulted 
in a reduction from seven to six seats.  Observers on both 
sides think the loss will likely come at the expense of the 
DPP, which currently holds four seats, despite its best 
efforts at peipiao.  The KMT's two seats are considered 
safer, although party officials worry that their nominee Wu 
Chin-lin might be negatively affected by the scandal 
surrounding his brother, a former Magistrate hiding from a 
corruption conviction.  Independent incumbent Tsai Hao, a 
local cable television mogul widely rumored to have links to 
organized crime, is still expected to take the last seat 
despite a recent indictment for vote-buying in the 2001 LY 
election. 
 
Taitung and Penghu Will Remain Blue 
----------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Taitung County's one seat is occupied by KMT 
legislator Huang Chien-ting.  Few observers doubt that he 
will win reelection, despite the surprise decision of the 
Magistrate to defect from the PFP to the DPP and subsequently 
endorse the DPP LY candidate, Hsu Jui-kuei, who himself 
defected from the PFP earlier this year.  The situation in 
Penghu County is similar.  The incumbent there is Lin 
Pin-kun, a former KMT member running under the NSU banner 
with unofficial KMT support.  Lin was ejected from the KMT 
after being sentenced to 15 years for corruption in 1998, but 
because of appeals and other legal delays, he has yet to 
serve his sentence.  Despite this, few observers outside the 
DPP campaign office expect him to lose his seat to the DPP 
challenger. 
Comment: No Big Gains to be Made in South 
----------------------------------------- 
10. (C) Comment: DPP dominance in most of southern Taiwan was 
established years ago and is now at a point of "saturation." 
Further gains for the Pan-Green in the south are likely to be 
difficult to achieve.  The remaining Pan-Blue vote resides in 
distinct demographic groups, such as Mainlanders, retired 
government and state-enterprise workers, etc. that will be 
difficult to move away from their close and long-standing 
ties to the KMT.  The DPP seems to have realized this and 
nominated relatively conservatively in most southern 
districts, seeking only to defend the territory it currently 
holds.  The major exception to this is Kaohsiung County, 
where the DPP is trying to capture two seats it lost in the 
last election due to bad vote allocation.  This likely gain 
will be offset by probable losses in other districts like 
Tainan County and Kaohsiung City, where the KMT is making up 
for past overnomination blunders.  With the exception of such 
tactical maneuvering, however, the major battles for control 
of the LY in this campaign will be fought in northern and 
central Taiwan, and not in the south. 
 
Forden 
PAAL