US embassy cable - 04ACCRA2390

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002390 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: GH, PGOV 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KUFUOR AND NPP LEADING IN GHANA'S 
ELECTION 
 
REF: A. A) ACCRA 7444 B) ACCRA 2366 
 
     B. C) ACCRA 2367 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  As of 4:30 pm December 8, with slightly 
over half the constituency results reported, President Kufuor 
of the New Patriotic Party is in the lead in Ghana's December 
7 election.  The CPP presidential candidate has conceded 
defeat.  So far, the NPP has also done well in the 
parliamentary election. The Electoral Commission has not yet 
announced final results and may not complete its tally until 
December 9.  Some of the alleged incidents of violence we 
reported ref A turned out to be false rumors.  The EC 
Chairman estimates voter turnout may be over 80 percent.  End 
summary. 
 
The Results So Far 
------------------ 
 
2.  (U)  Ghana's next president needs 50 percent of the 
popular vote, plus one vote, to win.  As of 4:30 pm local 
time, JoyFM radio station offered the following results, 
based on counting at 141 of a total of 230 constituencies. 
(Note:  The Electoral Commission is certifying constituencies 
very slowly.  EC Chairman Afari-Gyan told PolChief on 
December 8 that media reports of election results are very 
accurate because they get results from the collation centers. 
 The EC will not likely have final results until December 9. 
End note.) 
Presidential 
------------ 
 
Candidate         Percentage Vote 
 
John Kufuor (NPP)             55.1 
John Evans Atta Mills (NDC)   42.52 
Edward Mahama (PNC)           1.58 
George Aggudey (CPP)          0.77 
 
Parliamentary 
------------- 
 
(141 of total 230 seats contested) 
 
Party       Number of Seats Won As of 4:30 pm 
 
NPP         87 
NDC         50 
PNC         3 
CPP         1 
Others 
 
Incidents of Violence 
--------------------- 
 
3.  (U)  EC Chairman Kwadwo Afari-Gyan told PolChief there 
was not as much violence in this election as he feared. 
There were isolated cases of minor violence on December 7. 
Near Tamale in Northern Region, motorcyclists began shooting 
near a polling station.  Locals burned their motorcycles and 
detained them in the house of a chief until police arrived 
and arrested two of them.  There were minor scuffles in 
isolated polling stations, including in a hotly contested 
seat in Ashanti region.  Electoral officials were pelted with 
stones in one Brong Ahafo collation center and were rescued 
by police. 
 
4.  (SBU)  We have only been able to confirm with some 
certainty two incidents of significant violence in the 
December 7 election.  Our observers in Tamale confirmed with 
local police that an NPP and an NDC activist were killed when 
an NPP party worker shot an NDC worker at a polling station 
and then was beaten to death by another NPP supporter.  As 
reported reftel, in Bawku (Upper East region) gunshots 
disrupted voting when a member of parliament initially could 
not find her name on the voting register.  According to GTV 
(confirmed by the EC Chairman), one soldier was injured.  The 
night before the election, there was an election-related 
shooting in Volta region. 
 
5.  (SBU)  There were many unsubstantiated rumors of 
violence.  The police commander in Dzodze, Volta Region, told 
one of our observers that the radio story reporting that the 
Regional Minister's bodyguard had killed two people was a 
false rumor.  He also discounted information which we heard 
from the UNDP that an NDC activist had shot and killed 
someone in Volta region.  He noted that one person with a 
bandage said he had been shot by the NPP but was only hit by 
a sharp object. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Security forces intervened on occasion to prevent 
possible violence.  In Tamale, one observer witnessed police 
round up six men who allegedly were plotting to steal ballot 
boxes, armed with a sword and hand tools  One observer in 
Volta region confirmed that police in the area intervened to 
stop some armed NDC supporters who wanted to disrupt voting. 
According to the local police commander, security forces also 
averted some possible election-related violence at the 
Ghana/Togo border. 
 
Generally Free and Fair Process and High Turnout 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
7.  (SBU)  We continued to hear reports of some minor 
irregularities, like ballot boxes which disappeared after 
counting and lapses in voting materials.  Other foreign 
observers (although not our observers) reported numerous 
irregularities at the collation centers, where ballot boxes 
were taken after counting, including missing ballot box seals 
and recounting without the presence of party agents. 
 
8.  (SBU)  While there are no voter turnout statistics yet, 
the EC Chairman estimated turnout at over 80 percent 
nationwide.  Media and other local commentators widely 
praised the election as generally free and fair and 
indicative of deepening maturity in Ghana's democracy.  One 
NDC supporter remarked to PolChief after the election that 
"Ghana is the winner.  We have matured."  The EC Chairman 
told PolChief his "prayers had been heard" in running a 
smooth election, especially given the massive task of 
deploying 100,000 EC volunteers in 21,000 polling stations. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (SBU)  At this point, it appears that Kufuor will win, 
with strong showings in swing areas of Central and Western 
regions, as well as Ashanti and Eastern regions.  Compared to 
the first round of voting in 2000 (which featured seven 
candidates instead of four), Kufuor is so far polling better 
(he won 48.17 percent of the vote in 2000) and Mills is doing 
worse (he polled 44.5 percent last time).  However, many 
constituencies have not yet reported results, including about 
half of the constituencies in the NDC strongholds of Volta 
and Northern regions.  Although not without some problems, 
this election was truly impressive.  Ghanaians were 
determined to have a good election, as evidenced in the very 
high turnout and the generally positive, peaceful atmosphere 
on election day.  Despite concerns prior to the election, the 
voter register appeared reasonably complete.  Afari-Gyan has 
no doubt that the losing presidential candidate will concede 
defeat peacefully, although this remains to be seen.   A 
number of parliamentary candidates, as well as CPP leader 
George Aggudey, have already conceded defeat.  We cannot 
discount further incidents of violence as the results 
continue to come out. 
 
 
YATES