US embassy cable - 02HARARE104

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000104 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, MARR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE: 
MILITARY IMPLICITLY BACKS ZANU-PF IN MARCH 9-10 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
REF: '01 HARARE 3689 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: IN A JANUARY 9 PRESS CONFERENCE, 
ZIMBABWE'S SECURITY CHIEFS SAID THEY WOULD NOT TOLERATE 
THE ASCENSION OF A PRESIDENT WHO DOES NOT "OBSERVE THE 
OBJECTIVES OF THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE."  THE LENGTHY 
STATEMENT MARKED THE MOST DRAMATIC DEPARTURE OF 
ZIMBABWE'S MILITARY FROM ITS GENERALLY APOLITICAL 
HISTORY.  THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE ANNOUNCED THE DATE OF 
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 9 AND 
10 AND SAID THAT THE HARARE MAYORAL AND COUNCIL 
ELECTIONS WOULD BE HELD CONCURRENTLY, IN CLEAR DEFIANCE 
OF A SUPREME COURT ORDER.  MEANWHILE, PARLIAMENT VOTED 
TO SUSPEND ITS OWN STANDING RULES TO PERMIT THE RE- 
INTRODUCTION OF ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS VOTED DOWN BY 
THE MDC ON JANUARY 8.  THE DRACONIAN PUBLIC ORDER AND 
SECURITY BILL (POSB) COULD PASS THE HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY AS 
EARLY AS TODAY, JANUARY 10.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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REVERSING APOLITICAL STANCE, MILITARY BACKS ZANU-PF 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2.  (C) IN A JANUARY 9 PRESS CONFERENCE, ZIMBABWE'S 
SECURITY CHIEFS, INCLUDING DEFENSE FORCES CHIEF VITALIS 
ZVINAVASHE, ARMY COMMANDER CONSTANTINE CHIWENGA, AIR 
FORCE COMMANDER PERENCE SHIRI, AND POLICE COMMISSIONER 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00104  01 OF 02  101348Z 
AUGUSTINE CHIHURI, SAID THEY WOULD NOT ACCEPT A 
PRESIDENT WHO DID NOT SHARE THE "OBJECTIVES OF THE 
LIBERATION STRUGGLE."  THE LENGTHY STATEMENT, READ BY 
ZVINAVASHE, OUTLINED THE HISTORY OF THE FIGHT FOR 
INDEPENDENCE AND CRITICIZED THE LOCAL MEDIA FOR 
PORTRAYING THE MILITARY IN A BAD LIGHT, LISTING SEVEN 
CASES OF MEDIA "ABUSES" OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.  IN 
AN OVERTLY POLITICAL MOVE, THE MILITARY ALSO ENCOURAGED 
PARLIAMENTARIANS "TO ENACT LAWS THAT PROTECT OUR 
SOVEREIGNTY AND INDEPENDENCE," UNDOUBTEDLY REFERRING TO 
REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION CURRENTLY BEFORE THE HOUSE. 
 
3.  (C) ZVINAVASHE CONCLUDED BY SAYING: "... ANY CHANGE 
DESIGNED TO REVERSE THE GAINS OF THIS REVOLUTION WILL 
NOT BE SUPPORTED ... WE WISH TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR TO 
ALL ZIMBABWEAN CITIZENS THAT THE SECURITY ORGANIZATIONS 
WILL ONLY STAND IN SUPPORT OF THOSE POLITICAL LEADERS 
THAT WILL PURSUE ZIMBABWEAN VALUES, TRADITIONS AND 
BELIEFS FOR WHICH THOUSANDS OF LIVES WERE LOST ... LET 
IT BE KNOWN THAT THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN THE LAND IS A 
STRAIGHTJACKET WHOSE OCCUPANT IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE 
OBJECTIVES OF THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE.  WE WILL 
THEREFORE NOT ACCEPT, LET ALONE SUPPORT OR SALUTE, 
ANYONE WITH A DIFFERENT AGENDA THAT THREATENS THE VERY 
EXISTENCE OF OUR SOVEREIGNTY, OUR COUNTRY AND OUR 
PEOPLE."  (COMMENT: ALTHOUGH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND MDC 
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WERE NOT MENTIONED BY NAME, 
THE MILITARY LEADERS' LANGUAGE IMPLICITLY STATED THEY 
WOULD SUPPORT ONLY MUGABE OR A ZANU-PF SUCCESSOR IN THE 
ELECTION AND NOT SOMEONE FROM THE MDC.  TSVANGIRAI DOES 
NOT HAVE WHAT THE MILITARY WOULD CALL "LIBERATION 
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STRUGGLE CREDENTIALS," I.E. A HISTORY OF FIGHTING THE 
IAN SMITH REGIME OF THE 1960S AND 1970S.  END COMMENT.) 
 
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PRESIDENTIAL, HARARE ELECTION DATES SET 
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4.  (C) ON JANUARY 9, THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE ANNOUNCED 
THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE 
WEEKEND OF MARCH 9 AND 10, ONE WEEK BEFORE THE LAST 
POSSIBLE DATE.  THE OFFICE ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE 
NOMINATION COURT, WHICH HAS 21 DAYS TO OFFICIALLY 
RECEIVE NOMINATIONS FOR PARTIES' CANDIDATES, WOULD BEGIN 
SITTING ON JANUARY 31.  IN CLEAR DEFIANCE OF A DECEMBER 
7 SUPREME COURT DECISION THAT SAID THE HARARE MUNICIPAL 
ELECTIONS MUST TAKE PLACE BY FEBRUARY 11 (REFTEL), THE 
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE SAID THE HARARE MAYORAL AND COUNCIL 
ELECTIONS WOULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON MARCH 9 AND 10 FOR REASONS OF 
COST. 
 
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REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION CLOSER TO PASSAGE 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1662 
 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PC-01    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W 
                  ------------------55D9D1  101349Z /38 
O 101242Z JAN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0704 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000104 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, MARR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE: 
MILITARY IMPLICITLY BACKS ZANU-PF IN MARCH 9-10 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00104  02 OF 02  101349Z 
 
5.  (U) ZIMBABWE'S PARLIAMENT MOVED CLOSER TO PASSING 
THREE DRACONIAN BILLS DESIGNED TO MAXIMIZE THE RULING 
PARTY'S ADVANTAGES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  ON 
JANUARY 8, THE GENERAL LAWS AMENDMENTS BILL, WHICH WOULD 
AMEND THE ELECTORAL ACT, WAS DEFEATED IN A FLOOR VOTE BY 
36 TO 22.  ACCORDING TO REPORTS, JUSTICE MINISTER 
PATRICK CHINAMASA, WHO IS ALSO LEADER OF THE HOUSE, 
UNDERESTIMATED THE NUMBER OF ZANU-PF MPS IN ATTENDANCE 
AFTER A LONG NIGHT OF DEBATE WHEN HE SUBMITTED THE BILL 
FOR A FINAL VOTE.  THE RARE SETBACK FOR ZANU-PF IS 
TEMPORARY, HOWEVER; ON THE NIGHT OF JANUARY 9, THE HOUSE 
VOTED 73-53 TO SUSPEND PARLIAMENT'S STANDING RULES TO 
PERMIT THE BILL'S RESUBMISSION TODAY (JANUARY 10). 
UNDER THE STANDING RULES, A DEFEATED BILL CANNOT BE 
RESUBMITTED UNTIL THE NEXT SESSION OF PARLIAMENT BEGINS, 
USUALLY IN JULY.  MDC MP DAVID COLTART DESCRIBED THE 
SUSPENSION AS "UNCONSTITUTIONAL" AND SAID ZIMBABWE HAD 
BECOME "A DEMOCRACY IN NAME ONLY." 
 
6.  (C) ON JANUARY 9, HOUSE MEMBERS STAYED THROUGH THE 
NIGHT TO DEBATE THE PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY BILL 
(POSB), WHICH WOULD GIVE THE POLICE SWEEPING POWERS TO 
CONTROL AND BAN PUBLIC GATHERINGS AMONG OTHER REPRESSIVE 
MEASURES.  THE PAPERS OFFICE OF PARLIAMENT TOLD POLOFF 
THAT THE BILL MADE IT THROUGH ITS SECOND READING, AND 
WAS NOW WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY LEGAL COMMITTEE, WHICH IS 
CONSIDERING UNSPECIFIED AMENDMENTS.  THE BILL WAS DUE TO 
BE TABLED JANUARY 10 FOR A THIRD AND FINAL READING 
BEFORE PROCEEDING TO A VOTE.  HELEN DINGANI, THE DEPUTY 
CLERK OF PARLIAMENT, TOLD POLOFF THAT THE ACCESS TO 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00104  02 OF 02  101349Z 
INFORMATION BILL WOULD NOT LIKELY BE CONSIDERED UNTIL 
NEXT WEEK. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C) THE MILITARY'S SUDDEN DECLARATION THAT IT WOULD 
NOT SUPPORT A PRESIDENT WITHOUT LIBERATION CREDENTIALS 
REPRESENTS A PERILOUS PRECEDENT FOR DEMOCRACY IN 
ZIMBABWE.  IT IS A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM THE MILITARY'S 
LONG, GENERALLY APOLITICAL TRADITION AND CALLS INTO 
QUESTION ITS COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC VALUES.   WITHOUT 
NAMING NAMES, THE TOP BRASS OF THE SECURITY SERVICES 
HINTED THAT THEY WOULD NOT SUPPORT MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI IF HE WERE ELECTED.  THE STATEMENT SOUNDS 
 
SIPDIS 
LIKE A WARNING TO MDC SUPPORTERS: VOTING FOR TSVANGIRAI 
WOULD BE POINTLESS SINCE WE WOULD REMOVE HIM IF HE WERE 
ELECTED.  THE MILITARY CHIEFS IMPLICITLY UNDERSCORED THE 
IMPORTANCE THEY ATTACH TO CONTINUED ZANU-PF RULE, 
WHETHER MUGABE IS AT THE HELM OR NOT.  MOST OF THE 
CURRENT MILITARY LEADERS SPRUNG FROM THE ZANLA AND ZIPRA 
GUERRILLA MOVEMENTS OF THE 1960S AND 1970S, AND ALL HAVE 
BENEFITED FINANCIALLY FROM ZANU-PF'S 22 YEARS OF 
UNBROKEN RULE AND PRESUMABLY WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN 
THE STATUS QUO.  WHETHER THE MORE JUNIOR RANKS SHARE 
THIS VIEW REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION.  REGARDLESS OF THE 
MOTIVES BEHIND THE MILITARY'S POLITICAL STATEMENT, IT 
FURTHER CONTAMINATES AN ALREADY POISONED ELECTORAL 
ENVIRONMENT. 
 
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8.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED:  AS FOR HOLDING THE HARARE 
MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ON THE SAME DATE AS THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION, ZANU-PF IS ONCE AGAIN IGNORING COURT ORDERS IT 
FINDS INCONVENIENT AND THEREBY IS DENYING THE MDC ANY 
OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD MOMENTUM FROM AN ELECTION IT WOULD 
UNDOUBTEDLY WIN BY A LANDSLIDE.  DESPITE A FEW SETBACKS 
IN PARLIAMENT (INCLUDING ADVERSE REPORTS FROM THE LEGAL 
COMMITTEE), ZANU-PF IS BACK ON TRACK FOR PRODUCING THE 
LEGAL FRAMEWORK THAT WILL PROVIDE THE GOVERNMENT MAXIMUM 
ADVANTAGE FOR THE ELECTION WHILE CLOSING OFF MORE 
AVENUES OF DISSENT FOR THE OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY. 
END COMMENT. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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