US embassy cable - 04NEWDELHI7755

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007755 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL, ECPS, IN, PK, Kashmir, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: PROPOSED BUS SERVICE STALLED BY DOCUMENT DISPUTE; 
RAIL LINK MOVING SLOWLY 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 5796 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The December 7-8 talks in New Delhi on 
beginning a bus service between the two parts of Kashmir made 
no progress after the governments failed to break the impasse 
over documentation and modalities for crossing the LOC.  Each 
side offered what they termed compromise solutions, but none 
were mutually acceptable.  Demonstrating continued 
political-level commitment to Indo-Pak rapprochement, the GOI 
embraced a proposal for LOC-crossing certificates that first 
surfaced in the Track-II "Neemrana" dialogue.  Commenting 
that India favored opening the road largely for economic 
reasons, a member of the GOI delegation told D/Polcouns that 
it became evident during the meeting that Islamabad would not 
agree to any mechanism that could allow the LOC to become a 
de facto border.  The December 2-3 meeting on the proposed 
Munnabao-Khokhrapar train connection was only slightly more 
successful, in that both sides agreed to open links, but not 
on a timeframe to do so.  New Delhi complains that Islamabad 
is demanding unnecessary infrastructure changes that will 
drag out the rail link for at least three years, and cites 
this as evidence of GOP opposition to people-to-people links. 
 Five working-level sessions remain before the two Foreign 
Secretaries meet in Islamabad on December 27-28 to review 
 
SIPDIS 
Round 2 of Composite Dialogue talks.  End Summary. 
 
Deadlocked by Document Dispute 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) Despite recent public comments by NSA Dixit and 
Foreign Ministers Natwar Singh and Kasuri that the proposed 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service would start "soon," 
observers in New Delhi were not surprised when the December 
7-8 talks in New Delhi on the technical aspects of such a 
service failed to yield results over documents required for 
crossing the LOC (reftel).  The GOI dropped its past 
insistence for visas, suggesting instead a separate entry 
certificate issued by the respective High Commissions, but 
wanted passports as a form of identification for issuance of 
this document.  New Delhi also conceded that the entry 
permit, and not the passport, would be stamped at crossing, 
and also offered that the permits could be issued at stations 
set up in J&K to remove the hardship of Kashmiris having to 
journey to New Delhi for documentation.  The Pakistanis 
responded that the use of passports for identification was 
inconsistent with their characterization of Kashmir as a 
"disputed territory" and insisted (according to the Indian 
government) that this service be available only to 
"Kashmiris" (without elaborating how to define this 
population).  No date was set for resumption of talks on this 
issue although we expect it to be addressed in the next 
session of the Dixit-Aziz "back-channel." 
 
3.  (C) J&K Resident Commissioner Parvez Dewan (protect) told 
D/Polcouns on December 8 that the meeting was cordial and 
friendly, but observed that Pakistan had made no comparable 
compromises.  The sides met for about two hours on December 
7, and for only a few minutes on December 8, on the grounds 
that it made no sense to resume talks given the impasse.  He 
said Islamabad had refused to accept the use of any passports 
at all, because that would endow the LOC with the legal 
status of a border, which Pakistan adamantly opposes. 
Commenting that India was eager to open the road for economic 
reasons, Dewan called Pakistani proposals to use UN documents 
as in the case of Cyprus and Red Cross certificates as in the 
case of Korea "unacceptable."  The Pakistani High Commission 
confirmed to us that the GOI turned down these two models -- 
as well as a restoration of the pre-1953 "Rahdari" system by 
which travelers used documents issued by local officials on 
both sides of the LOC -- as "not applicable in the context of 
J&K."  All-Parties Hurriyat Conference leader Mirwaiz Umar 
Farooq told us December 8 that he was partial to the Rahdari 
system. 
4.  (C) Indian media were quick to claim that the GOP came to 
New Delhi intending to keep the discussion "political" as 
opposed to "technical."  Journalists noted that three of the 
four members of the Pakistani delegation were from the 
Foreign Ministry, while their nine Indian interlocutors were 
led by a Joint Secretary in the Transport Ministry and 
included members from the Foreign and Home Ministries and the 
J&K government, which suggested the GOI was prepared to 
address specific details. 
 
Who Travels on Which Transport Company 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Discussion further bogged down over who would be 
permitted to travel on the bus.  New Delhi sought to treat 
the service as any other public conveyance and allow all 
Indian citizens access, which would reinforce its position on 
passports as identity documents.  Islamabad, in contrast, 
wanted the bus to carry only residents of Kashmir.  The 
prospect of non-Kashmiris crossing the LOC raised the 
likelihood that passports, and not documents issued in 
Kashmir, would be required.  Dewan added that Islamabad 
called for a national bus company to be the carrier, because 
it did not wish the J&K Road Transport Company to travel 
between the two sides, commenting that this was impossible, 
because all of India's bus companies are state level.  This 
was only one of the "red herrings" the Pakistani delegation 
introduced into the talks, he stated.  (The current 
Delhi-Lahore bus is operated by the respective state 
transport companies.) 
 
Infrastructure Problems Also Remain 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) Analysts pointed out that even if an agreement on the 
political and technical aspects of the bus service were 
hammered out, it would take months to refurbish the currently 
unused road that transits the LOC.  Laborers are reportedly 
working overtime to complete repairs to the Indian side of 
the road, which even military vehicles cannot currently 
traverse.  Meanwhile, the bridge that actually crosses the 
LOC faces at least four months of repair work, and its 
location straddling the LOC will undoubtedly complicate the 
process, according to J&K-based journalists. 
 
Other Roads Won't Open 
---------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The lack of agreement over travel documents continues 
the impasse over what could become a network of cross-LOC 
transport connections.  In recent weeks the GOI has proposed 
buses running Kargil-Skardu, Poonch-Mirpur, and Jammu-Sialkot 
routes, but the deadlock over documents will hamstring 
progress on all these CBMs. 
 
Side Proposal for Kashmiris Floated 
----------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Separately, "Asian Age" reported on December 7 that 
the GOI had put forward an idea for designated points along 
the LOC where divided Kashmiri families could meet on a 
regular schedule.  This would be a marked improvement over 
the current practice of families arriving at their respective 
sides of the LOC and calling to each other from across a 
river or check-point. 
 
Proposed Train Link Gathering a Little Steam 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) The December 2-3 talks in Islamabad on the proposed 
Munnabao-Khokhrapar rail link connecting Rajasthan and Sindh 
were more successful, with the delegations announcing on 
December 3 that they had agreed to an "early resumption of 
the rail link" and to replace and refurbish the rail 
infrastructure.  The agreement remained hampered, however, by 
Islamabad's estimate of "two to three years" to lay new gauge 
track to accommodate such rail service.  This represented a 
significant delay over Natwar Singh's recent pronouncement 
that this southern Indo-Pak land crossing could commence 
business by October 2005 -- which the GOI says would be 
possible if the two sides stuck to the current meter gauge 
system. 
 
Remaining Composite Dialogue Discussions 
---------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (U) The below schedule for the remaining meetings in 
Round 2 of the Composite Dialogue reflects the rescheduling 
of the anti-narcotics and Foreign Secretaries meetings: 
 
December 9-10 (New Delhi): Meeting of the Committee of 
Experts regarding trade issues. 
 
December 13-14 (New Delhi): Meetings between narcotics 
control authorities. 
 
December 14-15 (Karachi): Joint survey of the boundary 
pillars in the horizontal section of the Sir Creek area. 
 
December 14-15 (Islamabad): Expert-level meeting on nuclear 
CBMs, including discussion on a draft agreement for prior 
notification of missile tests. 
 
December 15-16 (Islamabad): Expert-level meeting on 
conventional CBMs. 
 
December 27-28 (Islamabad): Foreign Secretaries meeting to 
review issues discussed this month and to set a schedule for 
another round of talks, possibly to begin in February 2005. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (C) As NSA Dixit confirmed to the Ambassador on December 
7 (reftel), PM Manmohan Singh remains personally committed to 
opening the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road, but it will not 
become a reality until both sides climb down further from 
their positions.  This will require engagement at the 
political level on both sides, although there are voices in 
the GOI that are calling for India now to call Pakistan's 
bluff and agree to its demands.  The MEA, in particular, is 
concerned that Islamabad opposes new connections between the 
two sides of Kashmir because this would tend to deflate the 
jihadist movement.  The issue of bus and rail service may 
arise again at the December 27-28 Foreign Secretaries talks 
in Islamabad or in the Dixit-Aziz back-channel, but the 
enduring deadlock over documents for cross-LOC travel is 
inextricably linked to each nation's views on Kashmir, and 
compromise will be difficult.  This will delay further the 
large number of Kashmiris who wish to travel across the LOC 
for family, tourism, and economic reasons. 
 
12.  (C) As the Composite Dialogue continues, it is becoming 
increasingly difficult to avoid the conclusion that Pakistan 
is holding concrete progress on important CBMs hostage to 
Indian concessions on Kashmir.  Atmospherics in India remain 
remarkably positive, but the intrinsically zero-sum nature of 
Kashmir is preventing the CD from living up to its potential 
to build new constituencies for peace and reduce the risk of 
renewed crisis. 
MULFORD