US embassy cable - 04NEWDELHI7750

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007750 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, MASS, EAID, PREF, ASEC, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: SHYAM SARAN "SPEAKS FROM THE HEART" ON NEPAL 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 6002 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Speaking informally at a just-concluded 
track-II conference on Nepal, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran 
argued that New Delhi and Kathmandu must work more closely 
together to defeat the Maoists, that Nepalese mistrust of 
India is misplaced, and that economic development could help 
Nepal overcome the insurgency, according to MEA 
Undersecretary (Nepal) Manu Mahawar.  Mahawar predicted that 
King Gyanendra would visit New Delhi, probably during the 
latter part of December, and indicated that the GOI would use 
that opportunity to encourage the King not to curtail Prime 
Minister Deuba's authority.  This comes against a growing 
expectation in Indian non-governmental circles that PM 
Deuba's days are numbered.  Mahawar noted that 160 Nepalese 
police officers had just completed training in Hyderabad, and 
said another 300 officers would enter the pilot program in 
mid-December under India's new police training initiative. 
New Delhi remains concerned about the nexus between 
anti-India insurgent groups and Nepalese Maoists, he 
emphasized.  End Summary. 
 
Shyam Saran "Speaks From the Heart" 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran "spoke from the heart" 
on the need to defeat the Maoist insurgency when he 
inaugurated a December 5-6 track-II conference on Nepal, MEA 
Undersecretary (Nepal) Manu Mahawar told Poloff on December 
7.  Mahawar described the Foreign Secretary's comments as his 
personal views, but said the remarks were "completely 
consistent" with the official GOI line.  He attributed this 
consistency to Saran's significant role in the formulation of 
India's policy toward Nepal. 
 
3.  (C) According to Mahawar, Saran outlined a four point 
approach to dealing with the Maoists: 
 
-- India and Nepal must coordinate more closely in order to 
resolve the Maoist problem; 
 
-- The Maoists must understand that they cannot win 
militarily and that the longer they avoid negotiations, the 
weaker their bargaining power will become.  This requires 
sustained military pressure on the Maoists, and concrete 
military successes by the Royal Nepal Army (RNA); 
 
-- The Palace and the political parties must put aside their 
differences, and present a united front to the Maoists; 
 
-- Development is one means of overcoming the Maoist threat. 
Kathmandu should "hitch itself" to India's economy in order 
to promote economic growth. 
 
According to Indian media reports, Saran also argued that 
Nepalese mistrust of India is misplaced and that Nepal should 
view India as an ally in the fight against the Maoists.  A 
December 6 "Hindustan Times" article reported that Saran 
urged the inclusion of "progressive" Maoists into the 
mainstream. 
 
4.  (C) Conference participants included journalists and 
academics from India, as well as representatives from major 
Nepalese political parties, including the UML and Nepali 
Congress Party.  "Foreign participants" were not allowed to 
attend. 
 
King Still Expected in New Delhi 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Although the dates have yet to be finalized, the MEA 
still expects a visit of King Gyanendra to New Delhi, 
probably sometime in the latter half of December.  Mahawar 
speculated that the GOI would emphasize the need for unity 
between the Palace and the political parties, further 
encourage the King not to undermine the Prime Minister, and 
highlight the need for Nepalese security forces to be more 
effective against the Maoists.  It would be "regressive" if 
the King weakened PM Deuba's authority, he observed, arguing 
that a change in PM would only exacerbate the situation. 
 
6.  (C) The King's expected visit comes against a growing 
feeling in New Delhi-based non-governmental circles that PM 
Deuba's days are numbered.  According to Jawaharlal Nehru 
University Professor SD Muni, Deuba's removal is 
"inevitable."  He predicted that Deuba would not be removed 
from office until after the January 13th deadline for the 
Maoists to come to the negotiating table, and speculated that 
Deuba set the deadline to buy himself time.  The MEA's 
Mahawar also noted a high degree of skepticism surrounding 
the King's intentions toward Deuba by participants in the 
track-II conference. 
 
Police Training In Progress 
--------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Offering an update on Nepal's police training project 
in Hyderabad (reftel), Mahawar reported that the first batch 
of 160 officers had graduated from the program on December 2, 
after ten weeks of training.  The second batch of 300 
officers is scheduled to begin training the third week of 
December, he said.  Once the second batch graduates, the GOI 
will evaluate the program before deciding whether to continue 
the project, now in its pilot phase. 
 
Working Together to Strengthen the Border 
----------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Echoing more senior Indian officials, Mahawar 
expressed concern about the recent creation of the Communist 
Party of India (Maoist) -- formed from the merger anti-India 
People's War Group and Maoist Communist Centre -- alleging 
that Nepalese Maoists had facilitated the merger.  He 
underlined GOI concerns over organizations such as the 
Coordinating Committee of Maoists Partners and Organizations 
in South Asia (CCOMPOSA), that promote links between 
insurgent factions, and claimed that nearly one-fourth of the 
country is affected by such groups.  Seventy-five districts 
are "severely affected," he stated, adding that both India 
and Nepal were deploying troops to "sensitive areas" along 
the border in an effort to strengthen security there. 
MULFORD