US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3900

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003900 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/RSP/TC 
DEPT PASS AIT/W 
/ 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: KAOHSIUNG MAYOR ON LY ELECTION AND CABINET CHANGES 
 
 
Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER. 
REASON:  1.5(d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) In a December 1 meeting with visiting AIT Director 
Paal, Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh downplayed the possibility 
he would move to Taipei early next year to serve as Premier, 
suggesting that Yu Shyi-kun would continue in the position 
after the expected February cabinet reshuffle.  Hsieh said 
DPP Secretary General Chang Chun-hsiung would become the next 
Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker.  Hsieh predicted the ruling 
party would achieve a majority of votes in the next LY by 
picking up support from independents and KMT defectors, even 
if the Pan-Green did not achieve a majority on its own. 
Hsieh estimated the DPP would win between 95-101 seats, 
including six in Kaohsiung, and the TSU 13-17, with the bulk 
of the Pan-Green gains coming in central and northern Taiwan, 
rather than the South.  Hsieh repeated familiar assertions 
that President Chen's more extreme and provocative remarks in 
the LY campaign were simply election rhetoric and that next 
year would present more opportunity for progress on 
cross-Strait issues.  End Summary. 
 
Hsieh Predicts Strong Gains for DPP in LY 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh (Hsieh Chang-ting), who is 
also one of the DPP's four LY campaign managers and 
Vice-Chairman of the ruling party, expressed optimism to 
visiting AIT Director Paal December 1 about Pan-Green 
prospects in the upcoming LY election.  Noting that he was 
being run ragged circling the island to participate in 
non-stop election events, Hsieh said he expected the DPP to 
make major gains in the upcoming election, taking at least 95 
seats and possibly as many as the 101 that President Chen had 
recently set as a goal. 
 
3. (C) Hsieh noted that, except for Kaohsiung County, the DPP 
was unlikely to pick up any seats in the south; most of the 
gains would come in the central region and to a lesser 
extent, the north.  In Kaohsiung City, Hsieh predicted the 
Pan-Green would win 6-8 of the 11 seats (Note: the Pan-Green 
won eight seats in 2001.  End Note.), with a higher number 
coming at the cost of the People-first Party (PFP) rather 
than the Kuomintang (KMT).  Hsieh noted that the DPP was 
taking some real gambles in a few places, such as Hsinchu and 
Miaoli, where the DPP had nominated two candidates but that 
there was as much possibility both could lose as there was 
that both could win. 
 
But TSU Falling Short 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), Hsieh said, was not 
likely to do as well as some had originally expected.  While 
former President Lee Teng-hui had originally predicted the 
TSU could pick up between 27-36 seats, latest estimates were 
 
SIPDIS 
that the TSU would win nor more than 13-17.  (Note: Polls 
taken later in the week by the DPP may have altered Hsieh's 
lower TSU estimate.  End note.) 
 
Sovereignty Issue Key to Mobilizing Base 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Hsieh said that the election turnout was likely to be 
low for Taiwan, around 65 percent, that there were few "swing 
voters" and that getting a large turnout of the Pan-Green 
base would be key.  In this context, the Taiwan "sovereignty" 
issue, highlighted by President Chen, was useful.  Vote 
allocation ("pei-piao") would also be a critical factor.  The 
DPP had used the strategy effectively in four previous 
elections.  He added that the Pan-Blue has had much less 
success with the tactic in recent elections, with many of its 
most popular candidates losing in 2001 due to zealous, but 
poorly coordinated, attempts to pei-piao. 
 
With or Without Majority, Ruling Party will Control LY 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
6.  (C) Whether or not the Pan-Green achieves an LY majority 
in the election, Hsieh was confident the ruling party would 
obtain a majority with the help of sympathetic independents 
and renegade KMT members.  Given that LY reform would cut LY 
seats in half before the next election, many Pan-Blue LY 
members would assess that they were unlikely to get nominated 
next time and this would encourage them to cooperate with the 
ruling party to benefit from ruling party resources.  Hsieh 
noted, however, that the ruling party would likely find it 
difficult to manage the LY, even if it obtained a simple 
majority. 
 
Yu Shyi-kun Likely to Stay on as Premier 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) In response to a question about possible cabinet 
changes, which traditionally come with the formation of a new 
LY, Hsieh downplayed rumors that he was in line to replace Yu 
Shyi-kun as premier.  Hsieh said Yu had served for many years 
as a subordinate to President Chen, while Hsieh had always 
been a colleague on equal footing, implying that he would 
find it hard to work directly under Chen's authority.  Hsieh 
did state unequivocally that DPP Secretary General Chang 
Chun-hsiung would become the next Speaker of the LY, 
emphasizing that Wang Jyn-ping had no chance to stay on in 
that position. 
 
Chen Rhetoric, Just Campaigning 
------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Hsieh repeated familiar assertions that the more 
extreme and controversial statements of President Chen on 
constitutional reform and "sovereignty" issues in recent 
weeks were simply campaign rhetoric and should not be given 
too much weight.  Chen had assessed that voter turnout of the 
Pan-Green base was essential to obtaining a Pan-Green 
majority and that appeals to the more extreme "green" voters 
would help ensure that turnout.  Hsieh expected that next 
year would provide more opportunity for Chen to find ways to 
make progress in easing cross-Strait tensions, as there would 
be no more "national-level" elections for a couple of years. 
 
Hsieh in Minority Opposing Constitutional Reform 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
9.  (C) Personally, Hsieh said, he believed the DPP should be 
more confident in its dealings with China and not worry about 
criticism from Pan-Green fundamentalists.  He believed China 
does not want and cannot risk war, since it has far too many 
problems already with which it must deal.  Taiwan needs to 
find ways to achieve what it wants, but leave China with 
"face", by avoiding the appearance that it is abandoning the 
"one China" myth.  In fact, Hsieh said that he did not 
support the idea of changing Taiwan's constitution and 
believed Taiwan should just work within the "one China" theme 
that currently existed in its constitution.  Hsieh readily 
admitted he was in the minority in the DPP on this point, 
however. 
 
Comment: A Moderate DPP Candidate for President? 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
10.  (C) Hsieh, a former DPP Chairman and Vice Presidential 
candidate, remains one of the DPP's most influential leaders 
and is a leading candidate to follow Chen in a bid for 
President.  However, he is also more moderate than Chen and 
clearly differs from Chen on a number of core issues, 
including constitutional reform.  Hsieh has been widely 
rumored to be a possible replacement for Yu Shyi-kun as 
premier in February, and before now had done little to 
contradict those rumors.  Why he is now, for the first time, 
downplaying the possibility is unclear.  It may simply be 
that the time is nearing for Chen to make a choice and Hsieh 
does not want to appear overly ambitious.  Or, a decision may 
have already been made to keep Yu on. 
 
11.  (C) Hsieh's predictions on the LY election are 
consistent with what we have heard from other high-level DPP 
officials and appear to reflect accurately the DPP's polls. 
His confidence that, with or without a majority, the 
Pan-Green will dominate the LY is also likely well-placed, 
since the ruling party's resources assure that many 
independents and even Pan-Blue LY members will find it 
difficult not to cut deals on discrete issues with the 
government. 
 
12.  (C) Hsieh's advice not to take President Chen's campaign 
rhetoric too seriously is something we have heard over and 
over again from DPP officials before each of the last several 
elections.  Unfortunately, Taiwan always seems to be in 
election campaign mode and we doubt next year, with National 
Assembly elections and local Magistrate and council races, 
will be any different.  In addition, Chen's "campaign 
rhetoric" rarely remains just that -- last year's campaign 
rhetoric on constitutional reform and referenda quickly 
became ruling party policy and, soon thereafter, law. 
 
Forden 
PAAL