US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3898

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003898 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: PAN-GREEN JUST SHORT OF A MAJORITY IN LY ELECTION 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: With the battle for control of Taiwan's 
Legislative Yuan (LY) entering its final days, neither the 
Pan-Green nor Pan-Blue camp is likely to win an outright 
majority (113 or more out of 225 seats) on December 11. 
Although the race in several key districts is still too close 
to call, AIT's best estimate is that the Pan-Green will take 
110 LY seats, up 10 from their 2001 performance, versus 103 
for the Pan-Blue, down 12, with the remaining 12 seats going 
to independents.  The final numbers could vary plus 4 or 
minus 3 for either camp, the key variable being the 
effectiveness of efforts to allocate votes (pei-piao), which 
in the past the Pan-Green has been able to execute more 
effectively than the Pan-Blue.  End Summary. 
 
Our Estimates vs. The Polls 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Pan-Green has been running a well-orchestrated 
campaign and, despite overly aggressive nominations in the 
northern districts, is likely to gain 10 seats over its 2001 
performance for a total of 110.  Based on how the individual 
contests throughout the island are likely to play out, the 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) could make the biggest 
gains and increase its number of directly elected legislators 
from 69 to 75, while the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) could 
go up from 8 to 10.  If, as most analysts expect, the DPP 
draws 38-40 percent of the popular vote and the TSU 8-9 
percent, then the DPP will secure 20-22 proportional seats 
and the TSU 3-5. Adding the proportional vote seats to the 
district seats, the DPP could take a total of 96 seats and 
the TSU 14.  Factoring in a plus 4, minus 3 variation to 
account for the unpredictability of the highly contested 
races, makes for a total range of 107 to 114 seats.  An 
outright Pan-Green LY majority is therefore possible, but 
unlikely as all of the highly contested races would have to 
break in the Pan-Green's favor.  (Septel will provide a 
region-by-region wrap-up.) 
 
3. (C) The Pan-Blue, in comparison, has been generally 
conservative in its nominations, but nevertheless is likely 
to lose 12 seats for a total of 103.  Plagued with a plethora 
of "maverick" Pan-Blue candidates running as independents, 
weakening grass-roots organizations, and continuing 
internecine fighting between Kuomintang (KMT) and People 
First Party (PFP) candidates over vote allocation, the 
Pan-Blue has been running an ineffective campaign.  Although 
the KMT could actually win 55 seats, an improvement of 2 over 
2001, the heaviest losses are likely to come from the PFP, 
which AIT estimates could grab only 24 directly elected 
seats, a drop of 11.  If, as most analysts expect, the KMT 
draws 30-32 percent of the popular vote and the PFP 13-15 
percent, then the KMT will secure 16-18 proportional seats 
and the PFP 6-8. Adding the proportional vote seats, the KMT 
could have an overall total of 72 seats and the PFP 31. 
Factoring in a plus 4, minus 3 possible variation, the total 
range of Pan-Blue seats is 100 to 107, suggesting that the 
Pan-Blue is all but assured of losing its majority. 
 
4. (C) This estimate falls within the range of commercial 
polls and various party projections. The 110 number for the 
Pan-Green is within the upper range (99-113) of most 
commercial polls and the lower range (110-116) of DPP 
internal projections.  In comparison, the Pan-Blue estimate 
of 103 falls within the middle range (97-107) of commercial 
polls, slightly above the DPP's range (95-101), and in the 
lower range (102-109) of KMT internal projections. 
Commercial polling on Taiwan, unlike AIT's estimate, makes 
strait projections based on survey responses and does not 
factor the effect of vote allocation, which all political 
observers agree favors the Pan-Green and will be the key 
determinant of the final outcome.  The DPP Survey Center, 
which does include vote allocation in its projections, 
estimates 113 for the Pan-Green (DPP 97, TSU 16) and 99 for 
the Pan-Blue (KMT 68, PFP 31).  After speaking with DPP 
Survey Center Director Pan I-hsuan on December 2, it appears 
to AIT that, as in the 2004 presidential race, the DPP's 
internal figures are overestimating the Pan-Green advantage 
by 1 to 2 percent. 
 
Comment: Where will the Independents Go? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Taiwan's multi-member district system makes elections 
notoriously hard to predict, and every election has been 
marked by surprises as voters and parties make last minute 
adjustments in an attempt to out-guess the odds.  One key 
variable will be the performance of independent candidates. 
While polls are trending away in the final days of the 
campaign away from independents and towards both partisan 
camps, in many districts independents will still play a 
spoiler role for the major candidates.  They could also form 
an important voting bloc after the election, if neither side 
secures a majority.  Of the 12 independents most likely to 
win, seven lean Blue while five lean Green.  The DPP, with 
its access to central government resources, has the better 
chance of swaying both types, but whether it will be able to 
secure a stable majority may not be clear until well after 
December 11. 
PAAL