US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3897

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003897 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY RACE TIGHTENS IN TAICHUNG CITY 
 
REF: TAIPEI 03466 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: With three days left before election day, the 
field of viable candidates for the eight Legislative Yuan 
(LY) seats in the battleground city of Taichung has narrowed 
to nine from eighteen (See Reftel).  Although the Pan-Blue 
camp appears poised to retain the four seats it won in the 
2001 election, the new seat added to Taichung City this year 
will probably go to the Pan-Green (if the Green-leaning 
independent is counted in the Green camp), changing the 
Pan-Blue four-to-three advantage into a four-four draw. 
However, one KMT incumbent is overwhelmingly popular and may 
draw too many votes away the weakest of her ticketmates.  The 
Blue to Green balance could tilt three to five, but such an 
outcome remains only a small possibility.  End Summary. 
 
Narrowing Field: 3 Candidates Fight for 2 Seats 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2. (C) Since AIT last visited Taichung City in early 
November, the field of viable candidates has narrowed to four 
Pan-Greens, an independent who is a former Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) Taichung mayor, and four Pan-Blues. 
Of these nine candidates, six are safely assured of seats, 
leaving the remaining three to fight for the last two seats. 
The two DPP incumbents, Shieh Ming-yuan and Lee Ming-hsien, 
are running strong campaigns and likely to win. All local 
observers told AIT that the independent, Chang Wen-ying, is 
highly popular and should also easily secure a seat.  Both 
media and KMT internal party polls provided to AIT place 
Chang among the top three slots.  KMT incumbent Lu Shiow-yen 
is consistently in the top position and both the People First 
Party (PFP) candidates in the upper-middle of the pack round 
out the six assured winners.  The race for the remaining two 
seats boils down to a contest between the DPP newcomer Wang 
Shih-shun, Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) incumbent Ho 
Min-hao, and KMT newcomer Tsai Jin-lung. 
 
An Independent Squeezes the Greens 
---------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Chang Wen-ying's continued prominence and popularity 
has made it much more difficult for the Pan-Green to ensure 
victory for all four of its nominees (one TSU and three DPP). 
 The official Pan-Green candidates will most likely take 
three seats.  DPP Taichung City Chairman Chen Da-jun on 
December 1 estimated that Chang is getting half her support 
from Pan-Green voters, reducing the pool of votes available 
to the DPP and TSU.  Although Chen said 30 percent of DPP 
voters in Taichung are willing to participate in vote 
distribution, versus 10 percent for the KMT, Chen assessed 
that the DPP nominees lack a large enough vote pool to allow 
the weakest two to secure seats.  The DPP has included the 
TSU incumbent, Ho Min-hao, in its vote distribution plans 
 
SIPDIS 
and, according to Chen, Ho and DPP newcomer Wang Shih-shun 
will be fighting for the eighth seat, which Ho is likely to 
win.  DPP Survey Center Director Pan I-hsuan confirmed Chen's 
assessment on December 2. 
 
KMT's One Weak Link 
------------------- 
 
4. (C) Although the KMT has been conservative in its 
nominations in Taichung, newcomer Tsai Jin-lung is in danger 
of not winning a seat if votes are not distributed from the 
popular front-runner Lu Shiow-yen.  Taichung City Mayor Jason 
Hu told AIT that the KMT has done extensive polling in the 
city and found that 18 and 29 percent of Lu supporters are 
very willing or somewhat willing to distribute votes.  The 
party estimates that if both those groups distribute their 
votes, Tsai Jin-lung, who is on the borderline, will move up 
into the sixth position, pushing down the DPP's Shieh 
Ming-yuan to seven and forcing the DPP's Wang or the TSU's Ho 
into eight.  Even with a lower participation rate, Mayor Hu 
was still optimistic Tsai would come in seventh or eight, 
displacing one of the lower ranked Green candidates.  Hung 
Chao-nan, the incumbent KMT legislator who decided not to 
stand again this year, was considerably less optimistic. 
Hung told AIT that Lu Shiow-yen's Mainlander supporters would 
never vote for the Taiwanese Tsai.  Hung said his own local 
Taiwanese KMT supporters have not warmed up to Tsai. 
 
PFP Daniel Hwang: The Comeback Kid 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The PFP in Taichung city, unlike elsewhere, is in a 
relatively comfortable position.  Both of its candidates, 
Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiau) and Shen Chih-hwei, are running 
strongly in the polls and do not have overlapping bases of 
support, said PFP Taichung City Chairman Lin Ping-yuan. 
Hwang, a handsome and charismatic incumbent running for a 
third term, has city-wide support from many white-collar 
professionals and young female voters.  Shen is a veteran 
lawmaker who is running on her constituent service record and 
enjoys support from the city's large number of retired 
military families.  Lin said both are not in danger of losing 
their seats and the PFP has no plans to distribute votes 
between them or with the KMT. 
 
Comment: A Draw, of Sorts? 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (C) AIT's contacts in Taichung clearly see independent 
Chang Wei-ying as a Pan-Green, and Chang offered this past 
weekend to re-join the party after the election.  With Chang 
assured of a seat, the most likely outcome in Taichung is a 
four-four distribution of seats between the Pan-Blue and 
Pan-Green camps.  AIT's local Pan-Blue contacts have already 
begun to portray such an outcome as a "success" for the local 
party establishment and a sign they can hold their own 
against the Greens.  A four-four draw, however, actually 
means an extra seat for the Pan-Green side and another step 
closer to their goal of a legislative majority. 
PAAL