US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3866

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003866 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S "NON-PARTISAN" PARTY: FLASH IN THE PAN OR 
KEY BROKER IN POST-ELECTION LANDSCAPE? 
 
REF: TAIPEI 03796 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Taiwan's newest and fifth largest party, the 
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NPSU), is facing an uphill 
battle to eke out enough seats this election to remain a 
viable political force in the post-December Legislative Yuan 
(LY).  The NPSU will have to exceed the expectation of most 
pundits and polls, which are projecting only five to seven 
seats, to obtain the eight seat minimum threshold for a party 
to form a caucus in the LY.  Nevertheless, even without 
enough seats for a caucus, the NPSU may emerge as a key 
power-broker in Taiwan's post-election landscape if either 
the Pan-Blue or the Pan-Green are a few seats short of a 
majority and the NPSU manages to hold its fragile cohesion in 
the face of intense lobbying targeted at individual members 
that is likely to come from both camps.  End Summary. 
 
A "Non-Partisan" Party or a Collection of Self-Interests? 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
2. (C) The NPSU is headed by Chang Po-ya, former Health and 
Interior Minister, and was formed in June of this year by a 
motley crew of eleven independent lawmakers who previously 
had formed a "non-partisan" caucus in the LY.  The NPSU 
legislative agenda focuses on livelihood issues, such as 
education, worker training, and economic development, and 
takes what NPSU Chairwoman Chang said is a "neutral" stance 
on national security issues, such as the arms procurement 
legislation.  (Note: In fact members of the NPSU generally 
support the purchase plan, but at reduced levels.) 
Chairwoman Chang told AIT on December 3 that the NPSU seeks 
to hold the middle ground in Taiwan politics, looking after 
the interests of Taiwan's people and working with both the 
Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps. 
 
3. (C) Playing "non-partisan" politics, however, is probably 
more difficult for the NPSU than Chang portrays.  One major 
challenge is the fact that many NPSU legislators and 
candidates are ex-members of the mainstream parties and 
continue to have ties and share ideological positions with 
their former colleagues.  Former KMT (Lin Bing-kun, Lu 
Hsin-min, and Lin Ming-yi), People First Party (Chen 
Cheng-sheng and Chiu Chuang-liang), and Democratic 
Progressive Party (Cheng Yu-cheng and Chu Hsing-yu) 
politicians, a good number of whom were expelled from their 
parties for violating ethics regulations, comprise the 
backbone of the NPSU membership.  Cheng Yu-cheng, for 
example, told AIT on November 30 that on major issues of 
importance he votes with the Greens if the NPSU does not take 
a Pan-Green position.  Cheng added that the NPSU party 
headquarters strategy is often hijacked by the self-interest 
of the legislators themselves, who joined together into a 
caucus, and later a party, mainly to acquire the ability to 
sit on drafting committees in order to expand their 
bargaining power to further their individual agendas. 
 
Election Challenge: Staying Alive 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The NPSU is facing an uphill battle to win the eight 
seat minimum that LY regulations require for the formation of 
a party caucus, which would boost its ability to be a major 
player in the post-election legislature.  Twenty-six 
candidates, including nine incumbents, are running under the 
NPSU banner in districts throughout the island.  Chairwoman 
Chang and NPSU Secretary-General J.J. Chen projected an 
optimistic figure of ten seats, but conceded that currently 
only five to six candidates -- the former independents Yen 
Ching-piao, Chen Chin-ding, Cai Hao, May Chin, and Walisi 
Beilin, and former KMT legislator Lin Ping-kun (Penghu 
County) -- look strong.  Secretary-General Chen said former 
PFP legislator Chiu Chuang-liang (running in Taoyuan County), 
former PFP member Chen Cheng-sheng (Nantou County), and 
former KMT failed candidate Lin Ming-yi (Yunlin County) have 
a chance of surging ahead in the final week to grab a seat in 
their districts. 
 
5. (C) Despite optimism from the NPSU party leadership, NPSU 
party candidates on the borderline, especially those with 
former party affiliations, are unlikely to win through.  With 
a party establishment that appears weak on policy cohesion, 
financial support, and campaign coordination, NPSU candidates 
are left to rely on their own local bases of support and to 
campaign on their own issues, a point which both Chairwoman 
Chang and NPSU Secretary-General Chen conceded.  Cheng 
Yu-cheng in Taipei County, for example, is essentially 
running his campaign as a Pan-Green candidate and makes 
little, if any, reference to his NPSU party membership.  Both 
pollsters and pundits AIT has consulted project that at best 
the NPSU will win between five to seven seats.  DPP Survey 
Center Director Pan I-hsuan told AIT on December 2 that 
support for many NPSU candidates, especially the incumbents 
who were originally elected as KMT, PFP, or DPP party 
members, is shifting back to the major parties as election 
day nears and voters are calculating that they need to give a 
majority to either the Pan-Blue or Pan-Green.  Chang and 
Chen's statement that only former independents (vice 
partisans) appear secure of wining seats implicitly echoes 
Pan's assessment. 
Post-Election Power-Broker? 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The NPSU, even if it does not win the minimum number 
of seats needed for a caucus, will nevertheless attempt to 
play off the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps in order to 
establish itself as a power broker in post-election politics. 
 If one side falls a few seats short of a majority, the NPSU 
leadership clearly expects to be wooed and said it would be 
in a position to recruit more independents into the party. 
Chairwoman Chang, while declining to acknowledge what, if any 
deal, is already being arranged, hinted that the NPSU would 
seek to make "arrangements" that served the best interests of 
the Taiwan people.  Secretary-General Chen was more 
forthcoming and admitted that his party would be looking for 
a cabinet-level position, such as Interior Minister, for its 
Chairwoman.  NPSU legislator Cheng Yu-Cheng told AIT that the 
NPSU was already talking with the Pan-Green to secure the 
Vice-Presidency of the Legislative Yuan in exchange for 
lending its support to the Pan-Green coalition, although he 
was unwilling to speculate on which legislator the NPSU would 
put forward for the Vice-Presidency.  National Security 
Council Secretary-General Chiou I-jen separately suggested a 
similar arrangement (Reftel). 
 
7. (C) Any attempt by the NPSU to bargain for concessions 
from the Pan-Green or Pan-Blue camps, however, is likely to 
be compromised to some extent by the loose cohesion and 
discipline of its individual members.  Secretary-General Chen 
in his discussion with AIT emphasized that post-election 
negotiations needed to be conducted at the party-to-party 
level, rather than with the individual members, indicating 
that NPSU leadership is worried that its members can be 
bought-off one-by-one. 
 
Comment: Hanging Together, or Separately Hanging 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8. (C) The NPSU and its precursor, the "non-partisan" caucus 
in the LY, have yet to play a major role in Taiwan politics. 
While its leadership proclaims to take the high ground and 
not play partisan politics, the party has so far provided 
little more than vague livelihood-related campaign issues and 
themes that their own candidates have largely failed to take 
to heart.  Yet, Chairwoman Chang and General-Secretary Chen 
clearly believe that if neither camp emerges with a 
legislative majority this week, the NPSU will find itself 
occupying prime political real-estate.  The key challenge for 
NPSU leadership will be to convince its legislators that 
maintaining party cohesion will more fully satiate their 
self-interests than individually selling out to the highest 
bidder.  If the leadership fails to do so, the NPSU is 
unlikely to become a power-broker in the new LY. 
PAAL