US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3865

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003865 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: JASON HU GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC ON PAN-BLUE PROSPECTS 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu told the AIT 
Deputy Director December 1 that the Pan-Blue may well retain 
a working majority in the next LY session.  Regardless he 
would urge KMT Chairman Lien Chan and those around him to 
resign, though they may resist.  Whether or not the PFP 
performs well in the December 11 election, Hu also downplayed 
prospects for a KMT-PFP merger.  Hu said that the KMT can not 
compete with the DPP on election campaigning, especially when 
the DPP deploys the Taiwan identity card.  Nonetheless, 
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou will be a strong presidential 
candidate for 2008.  Hu added that he was considering running 
for Taipei Mayor in 2006.  End Summary. 
 
Pan-Blue's Working LY Majority 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu (Chih-ch'iang) told the 
AIT Deputy Director December 1 that he expected the Pan-Blue 
to secure 105 to 110 seats in the upcoming Legislative Yuan 
(LY) race.  Using the higher estimate of 110, he predicted a 
80/30 KMT to People First Party (PFP) breakdown.  Hu also 
expected the independents to win 15 seats, which would give 
the Pan-Blue a 125-seat working majority.  Hu was confident 
that the independents would continue to vote with the Blues 
on legislation, and discounted the numbers that would be 
tempted to vote with the Greens given that the DPP were the 
ruling party. 
 
3. (C) Commenting on the voter allocation strategy (pei-piao) 
adopted by the DPP in this final week of campaigning, Hu said 
that pei-piao is more difficult for the KMT.  He explained 
that in the "old days" KMT could "instruct" its supporters to 
allocate their votes according to the organizations to which 
they belong.  However, he explained that the KMT can no 
longer give such instructions and must instead "appeal" to 
its supporters to vote systematically.  Moreover, after four 
years of DPP rule, government bureaucracies and civic 
organizations are no longer exclusively KMT, and the party 
cannot be sure how many party members are in a specific 
organization. 
 
Et Tu Brute: KMT Leadership Post LY election 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Hu said that, while it is difficult to discuss KMT 
leadership until after the LY election, he strongly advocates 
that, whatever the outcome, KMT Chairman Lien Chan, KMT 
Secretary General Lin Fong-cheng, and all the people around 
 
SIPDIS 
them must resign.  Hu said that if the Pan-Blue retained 
control of the LY, Wang Jin-pyng would remain as the speaker 
and Lien might stay on as chairman beyond the end of his term 
in July 2005.  However, if the Pan-Blue did not have the 
majority, Wang would lose his speaker's job and become just 
another legislator.  Hu said that Lien would not necessarily 
step down immediately in the event of a Pan-Blue electoral 
defeat, but he is likely to go when his term expires in July 
2005. 
 
5. (C) Hu told the Deputy Director that as early as spring 
2003 he was urging Lien to take on the role of "kingmaker" 
rather than the king.  Hu said that Lien replied to him in 
English, "find me a king."  Hu said even though he is one of 
Lien's men, if Lien did not resign in July 2005, he would 
urge him to go.  Hu said that, although he would feel like 
Brutus betraying Caesar, he would do it for the sake of the 
KMT's future.  Hu said that he believes that Taipei Mayor Ma 
Ying-jeou is most qualified to succeed Lien as chairman, and 
to be KMT candidate for president in 2008.  Hu was confident 
that being a Mainlander would not diminish Ma's prospects in 
southern Taiwan. 
 
6. (C) Hu, however, hinted that tensions existed between Lien 
and Ma, and that Lien "would not be so happy to see Ma 
succeed him as KMT chairman."  Given this situation, Hu said 
that a compromise might be worked out so that Wang Jin-pyng 
would serve as chairman for a year or two before handing over 
the reins to Ma.  Or, Hu said, another compromise scenario 
might be that Wang serve as chairman with the understanding 
that Ma would be the 2008 presidential nominee.  However, Hu 
also suggested Ma needed the chairman job to have a title and 
resources to compete for presidency.  Hu declined to guess 
who the vice presidential candidate might be in this case. 
 
End of Soong 
------------ 
 
7. (C) Whatever happens to the KMT after the December LY 
election, Hu said he cannot see a role in the KMT for PFP 
Chairman James Soong.  Hu said that the KMT-PFP merger will 
not materialize.  Hu reasoned that if the PFP does better 
than expected in the LY election, Soong will continue to be 
active politically and the PFP members will not want to merge 
with the KMT.  If the PFP performs poorly in the election, Hu 
continued, the PFP will have no bargaining chip and will not 
like the merger terms that the KMT is likely to dictate. 
 
Plead for A Responsible Opposition 
---------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) AIT Deputy Director urged Hu and the KMT to embrace 
the role of a responsible opposition party.  The Deputy 
Director urged the KMT not to disrupt the legislative process 
just for the sake of being disruptive and not to become 
passive and allow the DPP to push through legislation without 
responsible public debate.  Hu said that he had recently 
publicly admonished Lien for adopting an entirely reactive 
attitude toward DPP policy proposals.  Hu said that after he 
urged Lien not to follow "the DPP's butt," Ma and Taoyuan 
County Magistrate Eric Chu (Li-lun) telephoned to say that Hu 
had vocalized what they feel in their hearts but dared not 
say. 
 
9. (C) Hu reassured the Deputy Director that the Pan-Blue 
will make it impossible for President Chen Shui-bian to pass 
any potentially destabilizing revisions to the constitution. 
Hu said that even if the Pan-Green has an LY majority, Chen 
will still find it difficult to overcome the three-fourths 
threshold necessary for constitutional change. 
 
KMT's Achilles Heel 
------------------- 
 
10. (C) Hu bemoaned the fact that the DPP are such "good 
campaigners."  He said that the KMT never imagined that 
Taiwan identity and the "love Taiwan" (ai Taiwan) theme would 
be such a powerful mantra.  He said that it worked in the 
2000 presidential race, the 2001 LY election, the 2004 
presidential campaign, and now it is being trotted out again 
in this LY election.  Hu said that the KMT hoped that the 
Taiwan identity issue would run dry but instead its power has 
become an endless "black hole," sucking in Pan-Blue strength. 
 
12. (C) Recounting the 2004 presidential election, Hu said 
that the "two bullets" changed the outcome of the campaign. 
Hu said that according to internal KMT polls, the Pan-Blue 
was leading by seven to eight percent.  Based on these 
numbers, Hu explained, the Pan-Blue calculated that even if 
some people were swayed by the incident to cast sympathy 
votes for Chen, the Pan-Blue would still win.  Hu said that 
the Pan-Blue thought that the DPP would use the shooting 
incident to cancel or postpone the election, and said the 
Pan-Blue leadership was stunned when the DPP announced it 
wanted the balloting to proceed as scheduled.  Hu revealed 
that only James Soong concluded that the election should be 
canceled.  Hu said that when the rest of the Pan-Blue leaders 
asked Soong why he thought it should be canceled, Soong, in 
typical fashion, replied that the Pan-Blue should oppose 
anything the DPP wants.  Hu said that Lien overruled Soong on 
this issue because Lien wanted the election to proceed as 
planned. 
 
Musical Mayors 
-------------- 
 
13. (C) Hu commented that although he has declared his 
intention to run for reelection next year he said it only to 
keep everyone from jockeying to replace him so they would 
focus on the LY election.  Hu told the Deputy Director that 
his advisors are urging him not to run again, and instead 
rest for a year before running for Taipei City Mayor in 2006. 
 Hu said that if he does decide to run in Taipei City, then 
Eric Chu might run for Taichung City Mayor. 
 
Comment: Future for Ma Li-chiang? 
--------------------------------- 
 
14. (C)  In the winter of 2002, Jason Hu coined the persona 
Ma Li-chiang (by taking the first character from Ma's name, 
the second character from Eric Chu's name, and the third 
character from his own name -- together the phrase means 
"strong horsepower").  The local media immediately dubbed Ma 
Li-chiang as the KMT heir presumptives and presidential 
hopefuls for 2004, 2012, and 2024.  However, in spring 2003 
Lien ignored Ma Li-chiang and instead paired with Soong for 
the 2004 presidential campaign.  To this day, the KMT 
leadership continues to ignore Ma Li-chiang and their call 
for internal party reform.  In addition to being ignored by 
their own party leaders, Ma Li-chiang must also overcome the 
challenge of ethnic politics.  While admitting that KMT 
election campaigns have so far stumbled whenever the DPP 
deploys the Taiwan identity card, Hu asserted that being a 
Mainlander has not prevented him from being elected Taichung 
City Mayor and that it will not prevent Ma from being 
successful in his presidential quest.  However, in order for 
Ma Li-chiang be in a position to test the proposition and 
challenge the DPP, they must first resolve the KMT's 
leadership question. 
PAAL