US embassy cable - 04QUITO3168

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003168 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MARR, EC, Democracy 
SUBJECT: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECUADORIAN 
DEMOCRACY 
 
REF: QUITO 3081 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reason 1.4 (b&d) 
 
1.  (S) President Gutierrez' call for a special Congressional 
session, while controversial, is unlikely to directly 
threaten political stability.  Nevertheless, this event bears 
watching, given the proven potential for Congressional 
conflicts to lead to unforeseen consequences on stability in 
this country.  In our view, the opposition is not poised to 
convert Congressional controversy into mass mobilization in 
the short run, pushing off prospects for serious instability 
at least into the new year.  Serious potential challenges to 
political stability remain, however.  We have persistently 
encouraged Gutierrez and the opposition to respect 
constitutional due process, and see further opportunities for 
the USG to fortify Ecuadorian democracy in the near future. 
End Summary. 
 
Special Session Controversial 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) SepTel reports the controversial call by President 
Gutierrez for a special session of Congress on December 8 to 
discuss various judicial reforms.  The controversy stems from 
the methods favored by the government to replace the members 
of the Supreme Court, largely affiliated with the PSC. 
Constitutional controversy centers on whether the Congress 
has authority to interfere in Court activities under the 1998 
constitution.  Gutierrez is apparently willing to press its 
tentative and simple majority to take further steps into a 
constitutional grey area, if only to maintain its momentum in 
the run-up to selection of the Congressional leadership on 
January 5.  Defense Minister Herrera immediately expressed 
full military for the government. 
 
3.  (C) The opposition, meanwhile, seems unprepared to 
capitalize on the situation.  However, the indigenous 
movement remains divided and focused on changing its 
leadership later this month, delaying the potential for 
massive anti-government protest.  The Democratic Left is 
still being consolidated under the new leadership of 
Guillermo Lanzaduri, who was recently elected party president 
after a dismal effort as President of Congress.  And the main 
opposition PSC has yet to recover after the early demise of 
its impeachment effort.  Party leader Febres Cordero has 
become a target of opportunity for the government, rallying 
elements of the opposition behind the government's effort to 
limit his party's power in the judiciary. 
 
More Challenges Ahead 
--------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Several events over the coming month are likely to 
increase the potential for political instability, including: 
 
-- the effects of a rumored Cabinet shakeup, especially if it 
affects the defense minister  (the economic team will not 
change, according to Gutierrez); 
 
-- the looming fight over Congressional leadership positions, 
which affects all Congressional factions; 
 
-- the anti-government potential of the indigenous movement; 
 
-- the Government's proposed (but unrevealed) referendum to 
promote political reforms, possibly including reorganization 
of the courts, giving the President the power to dissolve 
Congress, and permitting re-election of the President; 
 
-- the destabilizing prospect of the possible return from 
exile of former president Abdala Bucaram. 
 
Opportunities 
------------- 
 
5.  (C) While the challenges to this government's longevity 
remain daunting, we see many opportunities to promote respect 
for political stability and democratic institutions. 
 
-- The Ambassador strongly cautioned the President to respect 
democratic due process in their last meeting, on December 2. 
 
-- We have redoubled our outreach with members of the 
alliance and the opposition, encouraging all to respect 
constitutional limits. 
 
-- We will closely monitor the special session on December 8 
and the indigenous movement's selection of new leaders on 
December 19-20. 
 
-- After a hiatus in contact with PSC leader Febres-Cordero, 
who masterminded the ill-fated impeachment effort, CG 
Guayaquil and PolCouns will re-engage with him. 
 
-- Former President Bush's private visit to Guayaquil has 
been rescheduled for January 14, and may include a meeting 
with Gutierrez. 
 
-- DAO and MLGRP will continue to closely monitor key 
military units and the military hierarchy's posture for signs 
of concern or opposition. 
Comment 
------- 
6.  (S) The President's efforts to purge the judiciary of PSC 
influence do raise serious constitutional issues, and will 
certainly not contribute to democratic stability.  U.S. 
interests mandate continued vigilance and engagement, but we 
are reluctant to inject ourselves publicly into the 
still-evolving Congressional debate over judicial and 
political reform.  The President's congressional gambit could 
well fail, and at a minimum risks a change in political 
momentum which could rejuvenate the opposition.  Serious 
destabilization of the government, however, is more likely to 
come from the streets than from Congressional debate (barring 
renewed impeachment efforts), where the distracted indigenous 
movement traditionally holds sway, or from the military, 
which shows no signs of unrest. 
 
KENNEY