US embassy cable - 04OTTAWA3286

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 003286 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/UMB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, UP, CA, Canadian Ukrainian Community, Elections 
SUBJECT: CANADA TO SEND A LARGE CONTINGENT TO OBSERVE 
UKRAINE ELECTION RUN-OFF 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary.  The Canadian Government, and especially 
the large Canadian Ukrainian community, are eager to play a 
major role in ensuring the December 26 run-off elections run 
smoothly and fairly.  However, Canada's decision to send a 
significantly larger observer contingent to Ukraine than 
previously announced may pose organizational problems for the 
Canadian government.  Many questions remain, including the 
number of official and unofficial observers, and the training 
that they will receive.  A potential problem could be the 
perception that Canadian observers may not be neutral in 
their activities.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U)  Foreign Minister Pierre Pettigrew, in conjunction 
with International Cooperation Minister Aileen Carroll, 
announced on December 6 that the Government of Canada (GOC) 
is prepared to send up to 500 Canadians to monitor the 
Ukraine election run-off on December 26.  The size of the 
monitoring contingent is unprecedented for Canada.  The GOC 
had been planning to send a contingent of 75 observers, at 
the request of the OSCE, after having sent some 40 observers 
to the run-off on November 21 (in addition, approximately 50 
Canadian private citizens traveled to the Ukraine as well). 
Normally, the GOC sends fewer than 10 individuals to monitor 
an election.  The move to increase the size of the GOC 
contingent came after public calls from the Ukrainian 
Canadian Congress (UCC), supported by several key members of 
parliament, for the GOC to send as many as 1,500 observers to 
the Ukraine. 
 
3.  (SBU) The relatively sudden decision of the GOC to 
increase from 75 to 500 the number of Canadians to be sent to 
the Ukraine may in itself pose problems for the GOC. 
Conservative MP Peter Goldring, who traveled to Ukraine to 
monitor the run-off on November 21, told us that his office 
is already receiving dozens of calls from potential 
volunteers.  The Ukraine Desk officer at Foreign Affairs 
Canada (FAC) also advised poloff that his phone has been 
ringing off the hook in the last day or so.  Goldring 
believes that the GOC may not be prepared to adequately 
screen and train such a large number of observers before the 
December 26 elections.  Somewhat paradoxically, Goldring also 
expressed his concern about why the GOC agreed "only" to send 
500 observers.  In an interview in the local press, he said 
that he believed that 1,500 Canadian observers is the bare 
minimum that the GOC should send to the Ukraine. 
 
4.  (SBU) A related issue to how many observers will go 
centers on the question of who will comprise the observer 
contingent.  Minister Carroll, in making the announcement, 
said that observers would be drawn from all qualified 
Canadians, and would be recruited by CANADEM, a non-profit 
organization that has previously handled election monitoring 
for the GOC.  (The Ukraine Desk noted to poloff that FAC 
prefers to rely upon CANADEM to handle personnel issues 
involving recruiting and training election monitors.) 
According to the its web site, CANADEM is seeking individuals 
who have either previous elections experience and/or 
Ukraine-related experience.  CANADEM also indicates that in 
addition to the official observation mission organized by the 
OSCE, a second mission of Canadian observers may also be 
deployed, possibly attached to the Central Elections 
Committee of the Ukraine. 
 
5.  (SBU)  However, Liberal MP Borys Wrzesnewskyj, in a 
pre-announcement conversation with us, noted that the 
Canadian observer contingent will be composed largely of 
Ukrainian-Canadians, and organized by the UCC.  UCC Executive 
Director Ostap Skrypnyk further noted that the UCC is 
undertaking a completely separate recruiting effort (replete 
with its own application form on its web site, with no 
mention of the application process underway at CANADEM), but 
that the UCC is in quote informal negotiations unquote with 
the GOC to have UCC observers included in the CANADEM 
mission.  It's unclear at this point how may UCC observers, 
if any, will be absorbed into the CANADEM force. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Wrzesnewskyj (a first generation Canadian of 
Ukrainian descent) believes that it is essential that 
Canadians of Ukrainian heritage comprise the observer 
contingent.  He stated that he has traveled to the Ukraine 
five times in the past six weeks and is convinced that the 
success of Canadian observers is directly related to their 
Ukrainian heritage, and has little to do with them being 
Canadian.  Due to their regional connections and language 
skills, the Ukrainian-Canadian observers had much more 
freedom of movement and action than other OSCE observers, and 
were therefore  quote three to four times as effective as 
individual OSCE counterparts unquote.  He pointed out that 
the Ukrainian Supreme Court used a large amount of documents 
prepared by Ukrainian-Canadian observers, because of the 
volume produced, the clarity of the information, and the 
perception of impartiality. 
 
7.  (SBU) Underscoring this last point on the subject of 
impartiality, Goldring noted that Wrzesnewskyj had been 
photographed hugging Viktor Yuschenko, and questioned his 
impartiality as an observer.  Goldring also mentioned that 
NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis, who likewise had traveled to 
Ukraine to observe the November 21 run-off, routinely wore 
orange scarves while in the House of Commons, clearly 
demonstrating her support for Yushchenko, in Goldring's 
opinion. 
 
8.  (SBU) Exactly how many official observers the GOC ends up 
sending to Ukraine is still being worked out, as is the 
question of the number of concurrent unofficial observers 
that the UCC may end up sending.  With a Ukrainian population 
in Canada exceeding one million, the election turmoil in 
Ukraine has been followed closely in the local press (not to 
mention extensive Internet and BLOG coverage).  The UCC is 
making a concerted effort to have as many Canadian-Ukrainians 
as possible travel to Ukraine, and has called for up to 
10,000 international observers to go to monitor the upcoming 
election. 
 
9.  (SBU) Comment.  The logistical challenges to the GOC will 
be significant, given the limited lead time (according to the 
CANADEM web site, the observers will arrive in Ukraine 
on/about December 21), the size of the monitoring contingent, 
and the somewhat competing interests between CANADEM and the 
UCC.  More importantly, however, will be the perceived 
impartiality of the Canadian observers (whether official or 
unofficial), particularly if there isn't adequate time for 
the GOC to screen and train such a large contingent. 
Ostensibly, the election observers should project their 
impartiality, but it is possible, given the pro-Yushchenko 
sentiments in Canada reported widely in the local press, that 
many observers may well be supporters of Yushchenko.  If even 
a few of the Canadian observers are overtly partisan (even by 
wearing orange apparel), their best intentions could be 
compromised.  Any perceived bias will likely be exploited by 
anti-Yushchenko elements in Ukraine, and Moscow, as further 
evidence (in their view) of western interference into 
internal Ukraine political affairs. 
 
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DICKSON