US embassy cable - 04OTTAWA3285

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 003285 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CONFIDENTIAL NOFORN 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SERIAL:  (U)  IIR 6 815 0017 05. 
 
COUNTRY:  (U) CANADA (CA). 
 
IPSP:  (U) IFC1330; IFC1322; IFC1312; IFC1350; IFC1912; IFC1517; IFC151 
2; IFC1343; IFC1344. 
 
 
TAGS: DOD, Canadian Military 
SUBJECT: IIR 6 815 0017 05/CANADIAN AIR FORCE F/A-18 
MODERNIZATION MOVES AHEAD AMID FLEET LIFE CONCERNS (U) 
 
WARNING:  (U) THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY 
EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.  REPORT IS CLASSIFIED C O N F I D E N 
T I A L/NOFORN. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
                     DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
DOI:  (U) 20041123. 
 
REQS:  (U) DHCD127055; DHCD127051; DHCD204008; DHCD127041; 
DHCD127046; DHCD204011; A-TRI-1343-020-04; A-TRI-1342-044-04. 
 
SOURCE: A. (C/NF) //6 815 0199//SENIOR HOST NATION MILITARY 
OFFICER WITH DIRECT ACCESS TO THE INFORMATION REPORTED. 
PREVIOUS REPORTING HAS BEEN RELIABLE. 
 
B. (C/NF) //6 815 0357// SENIOR HOST NATION MILITARY OFFICER 
WITH DIRECT ACCESS TO THE INFORMATION REPORTED.  PREVIOUS 
REPORTING HAS BEEN RELIABLE. 
 
C. (C/NF) //6 815 0362// SENIOR HOST NATION MILITARY OFFICER 
WITH DIRECT ACCESS TO THE INFORMATION REPORTED.  PREVIOUS 
REPORTING HAS BEEN RELIABLE. 
 
D. (U) DAILY NEWSPAPER, TORONTO STAR, TORONTO, ONTARIO, 
CANADA, 20041124 (U), IN ENGLISH.  WIDELY READ AND FACTUAL 
NEWSPAPER WITH LIBERAL VIEWS. 
 
SUMMARY: (U) SECOND PHASE OF THE CANADIAN F/A-18 
MODERNIZATION PROGRAM FUNDED.  F/A-18 FATIGUE LIFE 
MICRO-MANAGED TO STRETCH FLEET UNTIL 2017-2020.  MANY DOUBT 
CANADA HAS ENOUGH FIGHTERS. 
 
TEXT:  1. (U)  IN OCTOBER 2004, THE TREASURY BOARD OF CANADA 
APPROVED THE SECOND PHASE OF A CDN$2.6 BILLION PROGRAM TO 
RETROFIT CANADA'S AGEING 1980'S F/A-18A/B AIRCRAFT.  OF THE 
ORIGINAL 138 AIRCRAFT ONLY 80 WILL BE FULLY MODERNIZED TO A 
STANDARD SIMILAR TO THE F/A-18C/D. 
 
2. (U)  THE FIRST TWO PHASES OF THE MODERNIZATION PROJECT 
HAVE NOW BEEN FUNDED.  MODERNIZATION WILL BE COMPLETE WITH 
THE INTEGRATION OF THE ADVANCED SHORT-RANGE AIR-TO-AIR 
MISSILE (ASRAAM); ADVANCED MEDIUM RANGE AIR-TO-AIR (AMRAAM); 
ALL WEATHER PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS (LIKELY THE JDAM) AND 
AN ADVANCED MULTI-ROLE INFRARED SENSOR.  THE TWO FULLY FUNDED 
PHASES: 
 
A. (U)  ECP-583R1 CHANGES.  NEW MISSION COMPUTER; APG-73 
RADAR; NEW DIGITAL ANTI-JAM RADIOS; COMBINED IFF INTERROGATOR 
TRANSPONDER; NEW STORES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM; NEW COLOR 
DISPLAYS; GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM (GPS); AND NIGHT VISION 
GOGGLES. 
 
B. (U) ECP-583R2 CHANGES.  LINK-16 DATALINK; DEFENSIVE 
ELECTRONIC WARFARE SUITE; JOINT HELMET-MOUNTED CUEING SYSTEM; 
AND FLIGHT DATA RECORDER. 
 
3. (C)  EVEN WITH THE MODERNIZATION PROCESS STILL UNDERWAY, 
CONCERNS HAVE ARISEN ON FLEET AVAILABILITY AND ESTIMATED LIFE 
EXPECTANCY(ELE).  OF THE EIGHTY MODERNIZED AIRCRAFT, ONLY 
HALF WILL RECEIVE CENTER BARREL FUSELAGE REPLACEMENTS GIVING 
THEM A SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED ELE.  BECAUSE OF COSTS, OF THE 
80 MODERNIZED AIRCRAFT ONLY 48 WILL ASSIGNED TO FOUR 
OPERATIONAL SQUADRONS (TWO AT CFB COLD LAKE, ALBERTA AND TWO 
AT CFB BAGOTVILLE, QUEBEC).  GIVEN EVEN OPTIMISTIC READINESS 
RATES OF 70 PERCENT AND NO OVERSEAS DEPLOYMENTS, THIS MEANS 
THAT CANADA WILL ONLY HAVE A MAXIMUM OF 34 F/A-18 AIRCRAFT 
AVAILABLE ON ANY GIVEN DAY.  ACCORDING TO SOURCE A, 34 
AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN RATIONALIZED AS A NUMBER WHICH COULD 
SUPPORT FOUR 24/7 POINT DEFENSE PATROLS (CAPS) - AT EIGHT 
AIRCRAFT REQUIRED PER 24/7 CAP - TO DEFEND FOUR POPULATION 
CENTERS OR FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION.  ACCORDING 
TO SOURCE B, IF CUED AND PRE-POSITIONED AT A HIGH STATE OF 
READINESS, THE CANADIAN AIR FORCE COULD COVER VANCOUVER, 
EDMONTON/CALGARY, OTTA 
WA/MONTREAL, AND TORONTO. THIS WOULD LEAVE ALMOST NO 
CAPABILITY TO PROVIDE ALERT AIRCRAFT FOR WINNIPEG, HALIFAX, 
OR QUEBEC CITY. 
 
4. (C/NF) ACCORDING TO SOURCE D, CANADIAN AUDITOR-GENERAL 
SHEILA ((FRASER)), WHILE FINDING THE MODERNIZATION TO BE A 
GOOD IDEA, QUESTIONED WHETHER 80 AIRCRAFT WAS A SUFFICIENT 
NUMBER TO MODERNIZE GIVEN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASED NORAD 
MISSIONS IN THE POST-9/11 ENVIRONMENT. ONE MAJOR CONCERN IS 
THAT 17 OF THE 80 AIRCRAFT WILL BE SET ASIDE FOR TRAINING; 17 
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN PHASE/DEPOT REPAIR; TWO AIRCRAFT ARE 
DEDICATED TO THE AEROSPACE ENGINEERING TEST ESTABLISHMENT 
(AETE); AND ONE WILL BE DEDICATED TO MAINTENANCE TRAINING. 
COUPLED WITH NORMAL ATTRITION OF ONE TO TWO AIRCRAFT PER YEAR 
OVER A DECADE, CANADA COULD BE LOOKING AT LESS THAN 20 
OPERATIONAL FIGHTERS AVAILABLE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IN THE 
2015-2020 TIMEFRAME. 
 
5. (C) CANADA IS A LEVEL ONE PARTICIPANT IN THE JOINT STRIKE 
FIGHTER (JSF) PROGRAM, BUT DELAYS IN THAT PROGRAM MAKE 
CANADA'S DESIRE TO REPLACE THE CF-18S IN 2015-2018 SEEN VERY 
OPTIMISITC AND NO ONE SEES CANADA COMMITTING TO JSF UNTIL AT 
LEAST 2012.  INTERNAL AIR FORCE DOCUMENTS CALL FOR A NEW 
GENERATION FIGHTER CAPABILITY (NGFC) STUDY TO BEGIN IN 2008, 
ALLOWING SELECTION OF A REPLACEMENT FIGHTER BY 2011, AND 
PLACING A CONTRACT BY 2012 FOR 2015 DELIVERIES.  STATED 
COMPETITORS AT THIS POINT ARE THE F/A-22 RAPTOR AND THE F-35 
JSF (FIELD COMMENT:  PURCHASING THE RAPTOR IS A PIPE DREAM 
FOR THE CANADIAN AIR FORCE AS THEY WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO 
AFFORD ONE SQUADRON. INSIDERS BELIEVE EVEN THE POTENTIAL JSF 
BUY WOULD BE AT MOST 50-55 AICRAFT AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS 40. 
EVEN WITH THE INCREASED RELIABILITY OF THE JSF, WHEN ONE 
FACTORS OUT ALL THE TRAINING AND SUPPORT AIRCRAFT, CANADA 
COULD VERY EASILY BE IN A POSITION OF ONLY HAVING 24 FIGHTERS 
OPERATIONALLY AVAILABLE EVEN AFTER MAKING A TRANSITION FROM 
CF-18 TO JSF TOWARD 
S 2020. 
 
COMMENTS: 1. (C/NF) FIELD COMMENTS.  GETTING THE FUNDING FOR 
PHASE 2 OF THE MODERNIZATION WAS A MONTH-LONG ODYSSEY AND 
PROGRAM MANAGERS WERE SKITTISH ABOUT GETTING THE DEAL 
APPROVED RIGHT UP UNTIL THE TREASURY BOARD BRIEFING. 
 
2. (C/NF) WHEN THE CF-18 ENTERED SERVICE, THERE WERE 96 
OPERATIONAL AIRCRAFT FROM WITHIN A TOTAL FLEET SIZE OF 138. 
THE 1994 WHITE PAPER GAVE DIRECTION TO REDUCE THE CF-18 FLEET 
SIZE TO BETWEEN 48 AND 60 OPERATIONAL FIGHTERS.  BUDGET 95, 
THE NEXT SPRING, CONFIRMED 60 TO BE THE MINIMUM NUMBER. WHITE 
PAPER DIRECTION TO REDUCE FIGHTER OPERATING COSTS BY 25 
PERCENT WERE MET. IN 1997, THE SYNOPSIS SHEET IDENTIFICATION 
(SS(ID)) FOR CF-18 MODERNIZATION CALLED FOR THE MODERNIZATION 
OF UP TO 100 CF-18S (60 IDENTIFIED AS 'OPERATIONAL' 
AIRCRAFT).  IN JUNE 2000, DND ISSUED DIRECTION TO REDUCE THE 
SCOPE OF MODERNIZATION PLANS TO 80 AIRCRAFT, BASED MUCH MORE 
UPON BUDGETARY REASONS THAN OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS. 
 
3. (C/NF) THE AUDITOR-GENERAL WILL LIKELY FORCE THE 
GOVERNMENT TO GO BACK AND REVIEW WHETHER 80 FIGHTERS IS 
ENOUGH FOR CANADA.  THEY ARE LIKELY TO DETERMINE IT IS NOT, 
BUT LEAVE IT AS AN UNFUNDED REQUIREMENT OR PERHAPS EXTEND THE 
MODERNIZATION TO ANOTHER 4-6 AIRCRAFT. 
 
4. (C/NF)  FLYING HOURS FOR CF-18 PILOTS HAVE BEEN IN STEADY 
DECLINE FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS FALLING FROM 240-270 HOURS IN 
THE 1980S TO AN AVERAGE OF 182 HOURS IN CY2003.  NUMBER OF 
PILOTS HAS DROPPED FROM 92 TO 68 AND THE AIR FORCE IS HAVING 
TROUBLE RECRUITING EVEN VERY SMALL NUMBERS TO TRAIN EACH 
YEAR.  THE YEARLY F/A-18 FLYING PROGRAM HAS DROPPED FROM 
28,045 HOURS IN FY93/94 TO LESS THAN 17,000 HOURS FOR 
FY03/04.  LESS FLYING MEANS LOWER PILOT MORALE; LACK OF SPARE 
PARTS AND MAINTENANCE SUPERVISORS QUALIFIED FOR INSPECTIONS 
INCREASES PERSTEMPO; AND NEW TRAINING ON THE MODERNIZED 
AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS ALL STRESS THE CANADIAN AIR FORCE FIGHTER 
FORCE. 
 
5. (U) SOURCES REMAIN AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER EXPLOITATION. 
 
6. (C/NF) THIS REPORTING SUPPORTS PRIORITY 2, PARAGRAPH 2A, 
AND PRIORITY 3, PARAGRAPHS 1A, 1B AND 1D OF THE DAO OTTAWA 
OPERATING DIRECTIVE. 
 
7. (U) DIRECT ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THIS IIR TO DHO-1 AT 
STU III (703) 907-0541, OR GRAY 981-8236. 
COLL:  (U) AB; AC; AD; AH; AI. 
INSTR: (U) US NO. 
PREP:  (U) 6-03048. 
ACQ:  (U) CANADA, OTTAWA (20041126). 
DISSEM:  (U) FIELD:  AMEMB OTTAWA. 
WARNING:  (U) REPORT CLASSIFIED 
C O N F I D E N T I A L/NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS. 
 
SIPDIS 
DRV FROM:  DO HUMINT SCG OCTOBER 2004 
DECL ON:  X1