US embassy cable - 04VILNIUS1489

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 001489 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NB AND EUR/UMB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, XH, LH, HT13 
SUBJECT: ADAMKUS REPORTS INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION MISSION 
COMPLETE; NEXT STEPS UNCERTAIN 
 
REF: KIEV 4845 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR STEPHEN MULL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Adamkus is satisfied with the outcome of the 
contentious international mediation session in Kiev December 
6-7.  He predicts that December 26 elections will occur on 
schedule, but admits that key uncertainties remain.  A return 
of the international mediators to Kiev appears unlikely for 
now.  End Summary. 
 
Another All Nighter 
------------------- 
 
2.  (C) President Adamkus called Ambassador December 7 to 
brief on that morning's latest international mediation 
sessions to broker an end to the Ukrainian political crisis. 
Adamkus said the meetings had been the most contentious yet, 
with angry recriminations, particularly from Kuchma, aimed at 
both Yushchenko and the international mediators over what he 
characterized as foreign intervention.  He said that 
Kwasniewski, Solana and he had patiently pushed back, noting 
the importance of staging open, free and fair elections as 
planned on December 26; "We told him the eyes of the world 
are on Ukraine," said Adamkus, "you can't afford to destroy 
their hopes." 
 
3.  (C) The most significant achievements of the talks, said 
Adamkus, were: 
 
-- An agreement by Yanukovych to go on leave of absence 
through the December 26 elections, while a member of 
Parliament acceptable to all sides would assume Acting Prime 
Minister duties; 
 
-- Kuchma's agreement to dismiss the Central Election 
Committee and replace it with more politically unbiased 
officials; and 
 
-- A common agreement to consider Kuchma's proposed 
constitutional reforms "in a parallel track" with the 
election reforms, but without necessarily committing to 
passage of the constitutional measures before the December 26 
elections. 
 
Despite rumors that Kuchma was pressuring Yanukovych to 
withdraw from the race, Adamkus said it was clear in their 
meetings that Yanukovych will certainly run in the December 
26 elections. 
 
Personal Dynamics 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C) Adamkus said that Kuchma's clear motive in inviting 
the European mediators to return was to cultivate additional 
pressure on the Yushchenko camp.  Adamkus found Yushchenko 
personable and tough, though occasionally too focused on 
unimportant details of the political dialogue with Kuchma. 
He said that Yulia Tymoshenko obviously exercised strong 
influence on Yushchenko during the mediators' private meeting 
with him and his staff.  Russian Ambassador Chernomyrdin and 
Duma speaker Gryzlov kept a much lower profile in the round 
table meetings than had previously been the case, he said. 
Throughout the evening, Adamkus said Solana continued to seem 
disinclined to participate in the mediation effort, said 
Adamkus, implying that he was there only as a result of 
higher-level pressure from within the EU.  Although the 
sessions had come close to breaking down at several times, he 
said, by 2:00 a.m. the group had concluded their sessions in 
a congenial mood (with the help of several glasses of 
cognac). 
 
Mission Complete? 
----------------- 
 
5.  (C) Adamkus said that by the end of the sessions on 
December 7, all sides had agreed that the international 
mediation process had done all it could and that future 
returns to Kiev appeared unlikely.  While he expressed 
general satisfaction with mission, he agreed that several 
uncertainties remain in arranging the December 26 elections, 
and that he would be available to return to Kiev with the 
other international mediators to work those issues further if 
the parties desired it. 
 
Comment: Too Glossy? 
-------------------- 
6.  (C) Adamkus's essentially positive spin on the latest 
mediation effort  -- at odds with Embassy Kiev (reftel) and 
international media reporting that indicates a continued 
impasse -- undoubtedly reflects his wish to get credit for 
helping to move the process forward.  We defer to our 
colleagues in Kiev for the definitive analysis. 
MULL