US embassy cable - 04NEWDELHI7709

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, PTER, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: THE BJP: NO PLANS TO ADDRESS LONG-TERM PROBLEMS 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 7389 
     B. NEW DELHI 7088 
     C. NEW DELHI 6998 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The BJP is not taking advantage of the 
Winter session of Parliament (December 1-23) to demonstrate 
its effectiveness as India's leading opposition party.  Our 
conversations with senior BJP leaders in recent weeks 
indicate that the party is not addressing its internal 
problems and has no strategy to return to power.  It 
confronts the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) on the 
streets and in Parliament, but has yet to develop a positive 
vision for India.  Privately its leaders express optimism 
about the party's prospects, but concede that the UPA is 
likely to remain in power for some time to come.  The UPA 
record to date has not without problems and has provided 
openings for opposition attacks, but the BJP will not present 
a serious challenge to the government until it resolves the 
many internal problems it is sweeping under the rug.  End 
Summary. 
 
Parliament Gets Off to a Rocky Start 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) The winter session of Parliament (December 1-23) 
provides an opportunity for the BJP to demonstrate its 
effectiveness as an opposition party.  Its actions in the 
first few days of the session, however, revealed a party in 
disarray and searching for a coherent strategy to counter the 
UPA government. 
 
3.  (U) During the current session, Parliament is scheduled 
to address up to 46 bills on a wide variety of subjects, 
including the repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act 
(POTA) and a high-profile employment guarantee law.  MPs are 
also scheduled to discuss appropriate responses to increased 
attacks by Maoist groups, the prospect of talks between the 
GOI and Kashmiri separatists, ongoing violence in the state 
of Manipur, and the recent arrest of a prominent Hindu 
mystic, the Kanchi Sankaracharya Jayendra Saraswati.  Despite 
the packed Parliamentary agenda, expectations are low, as BJP 
disruption has prevented the previous two sessions from 
enacting much business.  Parliament's first day met 
expectations, as MPs from rival parties engaged in 
free-for-alls, forcing the speaker to dismiss the house 
early. 
 
Democracy: Not a Pretty Picture 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) During the opening session, members of the 
Bihar-based Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) made personal attacks 
against BJP President Advani, alleging that he had mistreated 
his daughter-in-law.  MPs from the Dalit-based BSP left their 
seats to loudly protest the recent arrest of one of their 
delegation in Uttar Pradesh (UP), called for the GOI to 
dissolve the state government led by Chief Minister Mulayam 
Singh Yadav, and only stopped shouting after the Speaker 
threatened them with suspension.  The Left/Communist parties 
accused the UPA of "not consulting" prior to increasing the 
price of petroleum products, implying that the price rise was 
unjustified.  The BJP accused Congress of betraying its 
election slogan of "Congress is with the Common Man," before 
leading an opposition walkout. 
 
5.  (U) The arrest of the Kanchi Sankaracharya dominated the 
second day of proceedings, with the BJP raising the issue in 
both houses.  BJP firebrand Sushma Swaraj claimed to be 
"anguished" over the treatment of what she described as "a 
2,500 year old religious institution."  Alleging involvement 
of the GOI and the UPA government in Andhra Pradesh (AP) in 
the Shankaracharya's arrest, she demanded the transfer of the 
case out of Tamil Nadu, and GOI intervention "to ensure 
proper treatment" of the Shankaracharya.  The UPA responded 
that it had nothing to do with the arrest, while the Tamil 
Nadu government accused Swaraj of "misleading the house." 
Tempers ran high throughout the session, with MPs frequently 
interrupting speakers with heckling and catcalls. 
 
The BJP Takes to the Streets 
---------------------------- 
6.  (U) On December 1 the BJP, decrying UPA economic policies 
as "anti-people," held a protest march to parliament.  In his 
speech at the rally, former PM Vajpayee said his government 
had kept inflation under check, increased the per capita 
income, achieved robust economic growth and launched major 
infrastructural development projects.  He contrasted this 
with the state of the economy under the UPA, which he claimed 
had "no control over rising prices."  BJP leaders also 
criticized the UPA for distorting the Indian government by 
establishing a "super Prime Minister" (Sonia Gandhi), filling 
the Cabinet with corrupt and criminal ministers, and taking a 
"soft approach" to terrorism in J&K and India's Northeast. 
 
Uma's Letter Bomb 
----------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Another indication of the deep divisions within the 
BJP leadership was a letter written by BJP firebrand and 
former Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Uma Bharati. 
Excerpts from the letter were published in the most recent 
edition of "Outlook" magazine.  Bharati implies that Advani 
who "used to roar like a lion," has lost his charisma, while 
party General Secretary Pramod Mahajan has "only one 
goal,...to come into power and then to make money," and 
former party President Venkaiah Naidu "made menopause a 
national issue," when he cited his wife's "illness" as the 
reason for his resignation.  BJP leaders have insisted that 
Bharati is being "rehabilitated" and would soon rejoin the 
ranks following her recent suspension.  But her caustic 
letter attacks much of the party leadership in terms that 
would make further cooperation extremely difficult. 
 
8.  (C) Two BJP functionaries confirmed to us that the letter 
is authentic.  Bharati had written the letter and given it to 
a confidant to release to the press should her reinduction 
not take place, but he reportedly leaked it prematurely. 
According to our informants, Bharati was to be reinducted 
into the party as early as December 2, but when the letter 
was leaked, angry second tier leaders demanded that she be 
kept out, and Advani complied. 
 
The Hindutva MP 
--------------- 
 
9.  (C) Ramakrishna Kusumaria is a BJP MP from Madhya Pradesh 
(MP).  Known to be a follower of Uma Bharati, Kusumaria 
represents the Hindutva wing of the party.  In a conversation 
with Poloff on December 3, he blamed the BJP's 
secular-oriented moderates and their National Democratic 
Alliance (NDA) allies for the fall of the BJP government, 
saying they insisted on calling an early election and failed 
to present the party's "values" (Hindutva) in a compelling 
manner.  Despite this, he insisted the party would rebuild. 
He claimed that since the BJP represents Indian nationalism, 
its leaders reflect the country's religious values and that 
because "time is on our side," the BJP will return to power 
stronger than ever. 
 
10.  (C) Pointing to the recent induction of Shibu Soren, who 
is under indictment for two murder cases, and other "tainted 
ministers" into the cabinet, and the increasingly heated 
dispute between Railway Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav and 
former Railway Minister Ramvilas Paswan, Kusumaria alleged 
that the UPA is basically hypocritical and corrupt.  He also 
accused the UPA of claiming to be "the party of the common 
man," while dismantling effective NDA programs that extended 
credit to the rural poor and developed India's 
infrastructure.  According to Kusumaria, the BJP is best able 
to tackle corruption and bring economic relief to the poor, 
and this will become clear to the voter. 
 
11.  (C) Kusumaria conceded that, the UPA will likely remain 
in power for a full five-year term, as the BJP will need time 
to "rebuild."  He also acknowledged that Vajpayee will not 
return as PM and did not mention Advani as his successor. 
Ruling out the prospect that the next BJP PM will come from 
the party's secular wing, Kusumaria said it would be a "holy" 
person and the party would make the decision at the 
appropriate time. 
 
The Youth Leader 
---------------- 
 
12.  (C) Dharmendra Pradhan is a rising star within the BJP 
and was recently named to head the party's Youth Wing.  A 
native of Orissa, he represents a central Orissa 
constituency.  Speaking with Poloff on December 3, he called 
the UPA "inherently unstable," predicting that it could fall 
at any time, and asserting that the BJP is ready to return to 
power at a moment's notice, with Vajpayee as its 
standardbearer.  According to Pradhan, the Left/Communists 
are the UPA's weak link, as they can bring down the 
government at will.  He claimed that prominent Left leaders 
told him they were "disgusted" with Congress and the UPA, and 
were only supporting them to keep the BJP out of power. 
 
13.  (C) Pradhan also claimed that Left leaders tell him 
privately that globalization is inevitable and they want only 
to ensure that its consequences are distributed fairly. 
According to Pradhan, the Left leaders are inherently 
parochial and only want to maintain power in their "red 
forts" -- Tripura, Kerala, West Bengal.  Congress must 
concede these states to the Left, he said, or they will bring 
down the UPA. 
 
14.  (C) According to Pradhan, Congress mismanagement is 
providing the opposition BJP with many issues.  He insisted 
that BJP would get lots of mileage out of the arrest of the 
Shankaracharya.  Noting that the BJP was an "ideological, 
cadre-based" party, Pradhan asserted it would find an issue 
to "unite the majority community, (Hindus)" and that once 
this is accomplished, it will have a lock on government.  He 
asserted that the BJP will continue to attack the UPA on its 
economic performance, and contrasted the treatment of the 
Shankaracharya with that of the "tainted ministers."  How 
could it be, he asked rhetorically, that Shibu Soren is 
accused of murder and put on the cabinet, while the 
Shankaracharya is placed in a jail cell? 
 
15.  (C) Pradhan acknowledged that the BJP has not selected a 
second tier leader to fill the number three slot behind 
Vajpayee and Advani.  Like Kusumaria, he downplayed the 
succession issue, claiming that the party would solve it when 
the time came.  Pradhan also denied that there is inherent 
tension within the party between the Hindutva wing and the 
pro-development wing, claiming that the party supported both 
objectives.  He conceded that the BJP's behavior in the last 
two parliamentary sessions was a mistake, and predicted the 
party would behave in a more responsible manner in Parliament 
to address issues of government and national policy. 
 
A Response from Congress 
------------------------ 
 
16.  (C) Speaking with Poloff on December 3, Congress MP 
Rashid Alvi (a Muslim) laughed off the BJP challenge, saying 
that the opposition has only one issue and came to power on 
the public's momentary fascination with the Ram Temple in 
Ayodhya and the novelty of Hindutva.  In Alvi's view, such 
emotional appeals quickly fade, the public has lost interest, 
and the BJP has nothing else to offer.  He predicted that the 
BJP would continue to decline, and the NDA alliance would 
eventually break up and disappear. 
 
17.  (C) Alvi revealed that Congress is far more worried 
about Mulayam Singh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party (SP), than 
the BJP.  According to Alvi, Mulayam has approached DMK Party 
Chief Muthavel Karunanidhi to convince him to pull his party 
out of the UPA government and join with the SP to form a new 
government.  Karunanidhi's departure would leave the UPA 
without a parliamentary majority.  Alvi claimed that 
Karunanidhi was not interested in the proposal, which cannot 
succeed without support from the Communists.  Alvi opined 
that while some Communists have pro-SP sympathies and would 
like to sever ties with Congress and the UPA, most have 
discovered that Mulayam is an unprincipled opportunist and no 
longer want to work with him.  He predicted that the UPA 
would remain in power for the next few years and easily brush 
off BJP challenges. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
18.  (C) The BJP's behavior and the private statements of its 
MPs do little to convince us that the party has overcome its 
problems or has a strategy to regain power.  Instead, it 
continues to paper over factional disputes, disrupt 
Parliament, postpone the leadership/succession issue, avoid a 
decision on the next Prime Ministerial candidate, and defer 
any program to win state level elections in February 2005. 
Many in the BJP appear content to wait for the UPA to 
self-destruct or make a serious mistake that will provide an 
opening for attack.  The UPA has presented such opportunities 
in the form of price increases of basic commodities and 
nominations to the Cabinet of persons with records of 
criminality and corruption.  However, Indian voters for now 
seem unconvinced that the BJP has a better track record or 
will behave differently should it return to power. 
MULFORD