US embassy cable - 04HARARE1969

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001969 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S 
USDOC FOR ROBERT TELCHIN 
TREASURY FOR OREN WYCHE-SHAW 
PASS USTR FLORIZELLE LISER 
STATE PASS USAID FOR MARJORIE COPSON 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E. O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN, ECON, ETRD, EINV, PGOV, ZI, Economic Situation 
SUBJECT: Vic Falls Tourism Up - Slightly 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for Internet posting. 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: After striking rock bottom in 2003, 
Victoria Falls tourism activity has picked up marginally 
this year.  Still, hospitality sector business at 
Zimbabwe's leading tourist destination is probably off 
two-thirds from 1997, forcing operators to find 
innovative ways to break even.  Industry insiders confirm 
that Chinese tourists are replacing some of those from 
the North America, Oceania and Europe.  However, these 
operators are universally disappointed by the 
unwillingness of Chinese visitors to spend money, whether 
at hotel bars or on adventure activities.  End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On a recent visit to the tourist town, econoff 
spoke with the general managers of the Victoria Falls, 
Elephant Hills and Kingdom Hotels; the managing directors 
of the major adventure activities provider as well as the 
top transport firm; and the regional head of the National 
Parks and Wildlife Service, which administers the 
waterfall area and surrounding rainforest.  We summarize 
their views below (and will channel a sanitized version 
through the Commercial Service's International Marketing 
Insights for potential U.S. investors). 
 
How Many Tourists? 
------------------ 
3. (SBU) Amid GOZ claims of record international 
arrivals, Victoria Falls hospitality operators have had 
to justify the obvious - that business has dropped off a 
cliff since the late-1990s.  A recent article in the 
GOZ's Sunday Mail, for example, asserted that 2003 
foreign tourist arrivals set an all-time record of 2.2 
million.  In these official statistics, however, the GOZ 
counts any border-crossing by a non-Zimbabwean as an 
international tourist, including the burgeoning number of 
border traders.  Occupancy rates at the three hotels we 
visited are averaging 30 percent, an informal indication 
that tourists are scarce. 
 
4. (SBU) The best alternate statistic we came across was 
U.S. dollar entrance fees that non-residents pay to the 
Parks and Wildlife Service to view the waterfalls. Based 
on these figures, international visitors to the 
waterfalls peaked in 1997 at 300,000 and dropped 
gradually to a low of 80,000 in 2003.  Statistics suggest 
international visitors will rebound to 100,000 in 2004, a 
25-prcent improvement but still down two-thirds from the 
late-1990s.  Parks and Wildlife Service Senior Warden Tom 
Jura confirmed that Chinese and other Asians accounted 
most of the growth, but he would not supply precise 
numbers. 
 
5. (SBU) Yet nearly every operator we spoke to complained 
that Chinese tourists spend little money.  Managing 
Director Allen Roberts of Shearwater Adventures, the 
country's top adventure outfit and the oldest in Southern 
Africa, said he almost never sells helicopter, bungee 
jump, light-hovercraft or whitewater rafting trips to 
Chinese tourists.  He claims his business would die 
without North American/European/Australian clients. 
 
Incredible Potential 
-------------------- 
6. (SBU) In spite of their present troubles, all 
operators boasted of the area's immense tourist 
potential.  "There's only one Victoria Falls," Kingdom 
Hotel acting General Manager Alice Chidawanyika joked. 
Tourism is so potentially lucrative, she noted, that the 
Kingdom breaks even with only 32-35 percent occupancy. 
Director Tom Chuma of Into Africa, a tourism operator 
offering a broad array of services, believes Victoria 
Falls' "dirt-cheap" real estate prices represent an 
opportunity for longer-term investors.  Lots are for 
sale, he added, with a view of the waterfalls or at least 
their copious spray.  "If you're not already in the game, 
it will be too late when things turn around," he opined. 
 
7. (SBU) The interlocutors also remarked that Livingston, 
Zambia, across the Zambezi River, has been absorbing most 
recent investment.  They believe Zambian hotels, 
restaurants and services are still inferior to those on 
the Zimbabwean side, but feel Livingston's railway museum 
could be a formidable tourist draw.  Rather than regard 
Livingston as a competitor, most Zimbabwean operators 
believed its development will enhance Victoria Falls as a 
larger and more complete tourist center. 
 
Waiting for Better Times 
------------------------ 
8. (SBU) Once Zimbabwe's politics and economics 
normalize, we suspect budget-minded Chinese tourists will 
be priced out of the up-market hotels.  At present, most 
of the Victoria Falls' hospitality industry wants any 
warm body it can get.  In fact, the sector is bracing for 
very low occupancies during the Jan-March run-up to 
Parliamentary elections.  General Manager Fungai Makani 
of the Victoria Falls Hotel said he now allows clients 
into the hotel dining room without coat and tie, a 
notable concession at this stately colonial enclave. 
Elephant Hills General Manager Mark Havercroft said the 
overvalued zimdollar has scared off so many international 
tourists that he now focuses his marketing more on the 
domestic market.  On a more positive note, the city's new 
Tourist Police seems to be deterring crime and the Parks 
and Wildlife Service knows of only one incident (non- 
violent) within the rainforest this year. 
 
Schultz