US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3848

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003848 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: A TALE OF TWO HSINCHUS 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: With a total of six open seats, Hsinchu city 
(three seats) and Hsinchu county (three seats) are two 
northern districts where the battle between Pan-Green and 
Pan-Blue forces for control of the Legislative Yuan (LY) 
could be determined.  The Pan-Blue, which currently holds a 
two-to-one seat advantage in both districts, appears likely 
to maintain its margin in Hsinchu city but is in danger of 
losing one seat in Hsinchu county.  The Democratic 
Progressive Party's (DPP) strategic nomination of two 
candidates in the county, while a calculated gamble, could 
yield a handsome pay-off.  The Kuomintang (KMT), blackmailed 
by its own grass-roots members, was forced to put forward a 
second KMT candidate in the northern part of the county as a 
response to the DPP's aggressive strategy.  The KMT's second 
nomination, however, has diluted Pan-Blue support for the 
People First Party's (PFP) only candidate, a newcomer, and 
presented the DPP with the chance to capture two out of the 
three seats in a traditionally strong, but now divided, 
Pan-Blue district.  End Summary. 
 
Straightforward Race in Hsinchu City 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) A separate administrative and legislative election 
district from its sister county, Hsinchu city has a 
population of 402,000 that is a mixture of traditional, 
low-skilled workers and high-skilled techies.  In past 
elections the city has leaned Pan-Blue, giving the KMT and 
the PFP one seat each in the 2001 legislative election and 55 
percent of the vote to the Lien-Soong ticket in the 2004 
presidential race.  Various polls show continuing strong 
support for KMT and PFP candidates that, coupled with fierce 
infighting within the Pan-Green camp for the Green vote, 
suggests the Pan-Blue is likely to retain its two seats in 
the city. 
 
3. (C) The KMT and PFP took a conservative nomination 
strategy in Hsinchu city, putting forward one candidate each, 
and so far KMT "maverick" Cheng Cheng-ling has not been able 
to siphon off enough votes to matter.   DPP Hsinchu City 
Chairman Cheng Hong-hui said Ko Chun-hsiung, the KMT nominee, 
would be facing some pressure from the renegade Cheng, who 
has the backing of Chang Tsai-mei, the KMT's current 
legislator embittered with the party for not renominating 
her.  Despite help from Chang, Cheng Cheng-ling remains very 
low in the polls and appears unable to unseat Ko who, as a 
former "patriotic" (aiguo) movie star, has enough support 
from military families and ethnic Hakka to get a seat, 
conceded the DPP's city Chairman.  KMT Hsinchu City Chairman 
Chang I-hua also expressed high confidence that Ko 
Chun-hsiung will prevail.  PFP Vice Chairwoman Chung Shu-ying 
said her party believes its candidate, the incumbent Lu 
Hsueh-chang, will get enough of the large Hakka and high-tech 
vote in the city to secure a seat. 
 
4. (C) The DPP decided to play it safe in Hsinchu city to 
preserve the seat of its representative and head of the DPP 
caucus in the LY, Ker Chia-ming.  According to Cheng 
Hong-hui, the DPP is optimistic of a victory, but also feels 
a sense of "minor crisis" as the Taiwan Solidary Union's 
(TSU) candidate Holmes Liao (Cheng-hsiang) is fourth in the 
polls and drawing votes away from Ker.  Ker was the largest 
vote-getter in the city in 2001 and Cheng said some Greens 
may be self-initiating an uncoordinated "vote distribution" 
(peipiao) to the TSU candidate. The KMT's Chang I-hua said 
they are seeing Ker campaign especially hard this year, but 
also agreed he was likely to retain his seat. 
 
The Gloves are Off In Hsinchu County 
------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) With a population of 460,000 and with two out of three 
LY seats held by the Pan-Blue camp, Hsinchu County is 
normally considered safe Blue territory.  In the 2001 LY 
election the four major parties each nominated one candidate 
and the Pan-Blue won two seats while only the DPP candidate 
was elected from the Pan-Green.  In the 2004 presidential 
election, the Lien-Soong ticket received 64 percent of the 
county vote versus 36 for the Chen-Lu ticket.  However, this 
year the Pan-Blue may have over-extended by nominating three 
candidates, two of whom are newcomers, giving the DPP's two 
nominees a good chance of being elected.  The TSU has no 
candidates running in the county this year. 
 
6. (C) The DPP has decided to forsake the status quo in 
Hsinchu County and taken a very aggressive, even outright 
risky, nomination strategy to reverse the two-to-one Pan-Blue 
advantage.  According to DPP Hsinchu County Chairman Chen 
Wen-hung, the DPP nominated one more candidate in the county 
than it did in 2001 when the DPP learned that current PFP 
legislator and former county magistrate Chen Chin-hsing was 
not running for reelection.  The DPP is betting, said Chen, 
that with the PFP incumbent out of the race it could put 
forward a second candidate, Lin Wei-chou,  who has a 
powerbase north of the Tou-chien river without threatening 
the support for its current incumbent, Chang Hsueh-shun, who 
has strong support south of the river.  In the clan and 
regional interest-driven politics of Hsinchu county, the 
DPP's strategy has a good chance of working.  Chen said 
Chang, a Hakka, is vying for the Hakka vote (Hakkas comprise 
70 percent of the county's population) with the other 
Pan-Blue candidates, while Lin, as the only ethnic Taiwanese 
in the race, is capturing a large part of the ethnic 
Taiwanese vote.  Chen admitted, nevertheless, there is a 
small chance both DPP candidates could spread the Green vote 
too thinly and lose, but said his party was willing to "take 
the risk." 
 
KMT: Forced to Respond 
---------------------- 
 
7. (C) The DPP's second nomination was "masterful," according 
Jiang Li-chung, special assistant to the KMT Hsinchu County 
magistrate, and prompted much consternation within the KMT 
party establishment north of the Tou-chien river.  KMT caucus 
whip for Hsinchu county Yeh Tsang-tsung said that he and his 
party members in the north were willing to support the DPP's 
Lin Wei-chou, who is a fellow native of Chu-bei city, if the 
KMT did not put forward its own candidate in the north.  With 
both the incumbent KMT candidate Chiu Ching-chun and PFP 
newcomer Chen Chi-hui coming from south of the river, the 
northerners believed the KMT was doing nothing to represent 
their local interests, said Yeh.  As a result, a delegation 
of party members with interests north of the river went to 
KMT party headquarters and lobbied for one of their own, 
current Chu-bei city mayor Yeh Fang-hsiung, to be placed on 
the ballot.  Yeh Fang-hsiung's nomination in the north places 
him in direct competition with the DPP's Lin Wei-chou, but is 
also drawing away northern Pan-Blue votes that could have 
gone to Chen Chi-hui, said the DPP's Chen Wen-hong.  With KMT 
incumbent Chiu Ching-chun's strong lead in the polls, a 
well-coordinated vote distribution (peipiao) to suport Yeh 
could allow the Pan-Blue to hold its two-to-one seat 
advantage, but come at a the expense of the PFP. 
 
 
PFP: Left Holding the Bag 
------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The PFP appears to have precipitated the DPP's 
offensive and, in turn the Pan-Blue "crisis," in Hsinchu 
county when it decided to put forward a newcomer and local 
school principal Chen Chi-hui instead of running its veteran, 
popular legislator Chen Chin-hsing again.  Chen Chin-hsing 
said he bowed out because of his advanced age (71 years old) 
and the need for the PFP to get some "new blood" in the LY. 
Chen Chi-hui's center of support resides in the south and 
competes with the KMT incumbent's power-base there, making it 
unlikely that the Pan-Blue will be able to overcome candidate 
resistance to vote distribution (peipiao) across party lines. 
  The DPP's Chen Wen-hong said that the PFP candidate may be 
making some gains and in DPP internal party polls has moved 
into fourth position, but even if the KMT is able to 
effectively distribute votes it is more likely than not going 
to help it's own.  As the election approaches, the PFP 
appears increasingly poised to lose yet another seat in a 
Blue stronghold. 
 
Comment: Can the Blues Hold Their Own? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The race in the two traditionally Blue strongholds of 
Hsinchu will be another key test of whether the Pan-Blue 
coalition can hold on to its advantage in the face of a very 
aggressive DPP nomination strategy.  Although conservative 
nominations by all parties in the city are likely to allow 
the Pan-Blue to lock in its two-to-one seat margin, dynamics 
in the county race has upped the ante for the Pan-Blues.  The 
DPP's two nominations have disrupted the "status quo" and in 
effect placed the county election outcome in the KMT's hands. 
 With the KMT's apparently poor ability to coordinate vote 
distribution (peipiao) between its candidates and across 
Pan-Blue party lines in other parts of the island, the KMT 
county establishment will need to prove itself the exception 
if it hopes to prevent a small DPP victory in a heavy 
Pan-Blue district. 
PAAL