US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1566

UNCLAS MAPUTO 001566 
 
SIPDIS 
MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 
SENSITIVE 
FOR AF/FO AND AF/S 
MCC PASS TO BRIGGS AND GAULL 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, MZ, Elections 04, Guebuza, FRELIMO, RENAMO 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBICAN GENERAL ELECTIONS: VOTE COUNTING 
 
REF: A. MAPUTO 1564 
 
B. MAPUTO 1554 
C. MAPUTO 1538 
Not for Internet Distribution 
 
1. (U) Vote counting began at polling stations last night and 
continued in the morning hours today. Initial results as 
reported by state-owned Radio Mozambique early this morning 
indicate FRELIMO candidate Armando Guebuza holds a healthy 
lead with RENAMO's Afonso Dhlakama running second and PDD's 
Raul Domingos in a distant third. In past elections, Radio 
Mozambique reported counts from urban, more FRELIMO-leaning 
areas first, only later incorporating results from the rural 
RENAMO-leaning areas. It is unclear at this time how much 
ground Dhlakama will gain as votes from rural polling 
stations are considered. 
 
2. (U) Embassy observers continue to report individual 
polling stations' results, which generally track with those 
reported in the morning press. Numbers from Tete province, 
where Dhlakama won 59.6 percent of the vote in the 1999 
presidential elections, indicate Guebuza holds the lead. 
Tete is an area where there have been reports of FRELIMO 
intimidation during the campaign and previous election years. 
Embassy observers also reported lower presence of RENAMO 
party delegates (observers) in some polling stations during 
these elections. Embassy observers in Nampula and northern 
Sofala provinces report Dhlakama leads in some districts 
where he won in 1999, but the vote appears closer than 
expected. Unofficial reports from the Mozambican observation 
effort affiliated with the Carter Center also suggest a 
healthy Guebuza lead. 
 
3. (SBU) Though RENAMO has made some claims of fraud, these 
allegations appear to be more isolated and less prevalent 
than in past elections. Also, in a change from past 
behavior, a high ranking RENAMO party official admitted to 
the Embassy political specialist to losing a district in Cabo 
Delgado, that many thought would go RENAMO. In the past, 
RENAMO would more likely have claimed fraud rather than admit 
defeat. 
 
4. (SBU) An EU representative told donor representatives this 
morning that the EU still was not sure how much access 
National Elections Commissions (CNE) officials would allow EU 
observers at the provincial and national tabulation stages 
over the next several days. If the access is not what the EU 
is seeking, it will not give an unqualified endorsement of 
the process. 
 
5. (SBU) We expect provincial-level tabulation of results 
from individual polling places to begin today. Several 
observer missions, including the EU and the Carter Center 
have planned press conferences for tomorrow. 
LA LIME