US embassy cable - 04DJIBOUTI1543

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001543 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF AND AF/E; LONDON/PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PARM, PBTS, DJ, SO, ET, ER 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT GUELLEH ON SOMALIA, ETHIOPIA-ERITREA, 
SUDAN 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARGUERITA D. RAGSDALE. 
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
 1. (C) In a meeting with President Ismail Omar Guelleh 
December 2 on other matters (reviewed septels), Ambassador 
also sought Guelleh's views on regional Horn of Africa 
developments. Topics covered included the new Ethiopian 
five-point peace proposal, Eritrean isolation and meddling in 
Darfur, Libya as regional spoiler, the new Somalia 
transitional president and the future of Somaliland. 
Pol/Econ accompanied Ambassador as notetaker. Guelleh was 
joined by his Minister of the Presidency, Osman Ahmed. 
 
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Ethiopia-Eritrea 
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2. (C) On Meles's new five-point proposal to end its conflict 
with Eritrea, Guelleh noted that it very heavily used the 
term "in principle."  Meles had told him, Guelleh said, the 
hardest part of his work was done in putting forward the 
five-point plan. Now, he can look towards getting demarcation 
implemented.  However, Guelleh said, while getting 
demarcation implemented, it is important to open the door for 
discussion on how to solve the problem of Badme being now 
divided into two parts.  There might be human tragedies along 
the border that need resolution, and it would be crucial to 
determine who is responsible. The two leaders must talk 
directly, he said, despite the fact that Eritrea has 
denounced the five-point proposal outright.  He urged the 
U.S. to play a critical role because of its friendly 
relationship with both Ethiopia and Eritrea.  Eritrea's 
Isaias is very isolated, Guelleh said.  A third party-- 
Libya-- one of the few friends Isaias has remaining in the 
region, had entered the mix.  The U.S. should put pressure on 
Libya to assist with peace efforts because of that close 
relationship, Guelleh said. 
 
3. (C) Guelleh said he thought Isaias was now meddling in 
Darfur, arming rebels in an effort to de-stabilize Sudan. He 
said he believed this meddling is at the behest of Libya, as 
the arms being provided are of Libyan origin.  He 
re-emphazied that it is important for the U.S. to put 
pressure on Libya.  He also remarked that Isaias's actions 
had no logic.  "He has enough problems in Eritrea that he 
needs to solve rather than looking elsewhere," Guelleh said. 
Guelleh was firm in his opinion that it would not be wise to 
give Isaias the impression that his behavior and actions 
against peace are condoned. 
 
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Sudan 
----- 
 
4. (C) Ambassador asked Guelleh for his perspective on the 
current government in Sudan, and what impact a change in 
leadership might have on the country's future.  Guelleh 
stated that in his opinion, Bashir had changed focus.  He had 
abandoned old friends, mentors and policies because he wanted 
to seek greater normalcy for his country.  This is one reason 
Bashir has been open to genuine dialogue between North and 
South, Guelleh assessed, and had worked to remove extremists 
from his army and administration.  Guelleh also commented 
that he did not see any other leader currently on the scene 
in Sudan that could lead the country.  If elections were held 
today, Bashir would likely be elected by the majority of the 
people, Guelleh surmised.  He cautioned again, however, about 
Libya.  He said Qaddafi has long had an interest in 
de-stabilizing Sudan, Chad, and the Central African Republic 
and continues that policy. 
 
--------------------------- 
Somalia and Abdillahi Yusuf 
--------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Guelleh noted that Yusuf had begun to form his 
government and that he appeared to be selecting other 
warlords.  He then said he wanted to watch the reactions of 
Somalis in the diaspora.  He did not think they would like 
Yusuf very much.  He said the approach to peace during the 
Arta Conference that Djibouti had hosted in 2000 was to keep 
the warlords out and to engage civil society.  That did not 
work, Guelleh said, but it would take time to see if Yusuf's 
plan of engaging warlords would fare better. 
 
6. (C) Guelleh said it was critical that the U.S. support 
Yusuf.  He could not succeed without that support.  If the 
Europeans see the U.S. supporting Yusuf, they would respond 
in kind.  He said it was unfortunate that the U.S. refused to 
permit Yusuf to travel to New York.  Ambassador noted that 
the U.S. position has been that it wants Yusuf to concentrate 
first on building a government and that building a government 
could then be followed by perhaps addressing other issues 
such as support for an African Union peacekeeping force in 
Somalia. 
 
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Somaliland 
---------- 
 
7. (C) Asked about the future of Somaliland and Djibouti's 
view of Somaliland, Guelleh said the international community 
must push Somaliland to create a climate suitable for talks 
with its brethren in the south.  Ambassador noted the 
firmness of FM Edna Ismail on Somaliland remaining an 
independent entity.  Guelleh said Somaliland must be 
persuaded to rejoin the Somalia body, perhaps in the form of 
a federation, but to rejoin all the same. (Comment: The idea 
of a federation has long been put forward by Djibouti but it 
is unclear what form it would take.  End comment)  He said 
Somaliland has, to its credit, been stable, yet that 
stability has been the result of it being comprised of a 
single tribe. "We cannot encourage the idea of secession," he 
said. If we give Somaliland the green light to go its 
separate way, many countries will follow suit.  Guelleh 
confirmed that this was also the position of the African 
Union. 
 
8. (U) Khartoum and Tripoli minimize considered. 
RAGSDALE