US embassy cable - 04QUITO3146

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003146 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS GOES ON HOLIDAY, BUT REST UNLIKELY 
 
REF: QUITO 3108 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, for reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Congress ended its stormy fall calendar on 
December 2, releasing its combative politicians until January 
4.  Political leaders are likely to stay busy during holiday 
season, as all parties regroup for the battle over 
Congressional leadership and control of the Supreme Court set 
to recommence next month.  Having survived an impeachment 
attempt, President Gutierrez and his new allies have seized 
the political offensive from pro-impeachment forces, 
capitalizing on resentment of the PSC to purge its influence 
in the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and Constitutional Court 
using dubious legislative tactics (RefTel).  In a meeting 
with the Ambassador on December 2, Gutierrez defended his 
tactics as intended to strengthen Ecuador's democratic 
institutions.  With the balance in Congress still very fluid, 
political maneuvering (and the potential for disturbances) 
will intensify as January approaches, with both sides seeking 
to attract Congressional swing votes.  End Summary. 
 
President Sees Things Differently 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) At a breakfast with President Gutierrez on December 
2, the Ambassador and DCM expressed concern about the current 
combative political situation and questionable moves by the 
government's new "progressive alliance," emphasizing the need 
for respect for constitutional due process and democratic 
institutions, including Congress and the judiciary.  The 
Ambassador urged the president to increase transparency by 
explaining to the public the content of proposed political 
reforms and the government's respect for constitutional 
guarantees and due process.  She also suggested that 
Gutierrez maintain political dialogue with the opposition. 
 
3.  (C) Gutierrez appeared confident and assured. He said 
this was not a personal vendetta against PSC leader Leon 
Febres-Cordero, as some have portrayed it.  While slyly 
acknowledging his own "political interests," Gutierrez went 
on to claim that constitutionality was his foremost concern 
in drafting still-unrevealed political reforms to shrink the 
size of Congress, reduced the mandatory retirement of Supreme 
Court justices, and purge the courts of interference by 
political parties.  Nor is the government targeting 
Febres-Cordero's family for economic retribution, he claimed. 
 Rather, the government is seeking to recoup debts owed by 
more than 200 individuals, not just members of 
Febres-Cordero's family. 
 
4.  (C) Political reforms soon to be proposed by the 
government, Gutierrez said, will be submitted to Congress as 
draft legislation, not as a popular referendum.  The 
government is reaching out to all parties to support the 
reforms; he recognized that there are reasonable members of 
the ID and PSC, apart from the top leadership.  While joining 
in praise for former Government Minister Raul Baca, Gutierrez 
justified Baca's replacement with Jaime Damerval, which had 
succeeded in diverting political heat away from the person of 
the President. 
 
Will the "Progressive Alliance" Endure? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The so-called progressive alliance of 
PSP-PRE-PRIAN-MPD-Socialists-Independents united to purge the 
electoral tribunal and Constitutional Court of PSC control on 
November 25.  Since doing so, however, leftist small party 
members (MPD and Socialists) have publicly declared that 
their participation in the alliance is over.  Our PRIAN 
contacts dispute that claim, saying the alliance will last at 
least through the selection of new Congressional leadership 
on January 5 (giving the PRE the presidency), and possibly 
through reform of the Supreme Court in early 2005. 
Negotiations continue within the alliance over how to go 
about the court reform (the PRIAN opposes the PRE's wish to 
do so by simple resolution, which would violate 
constitutional principles), and who gets what positions in 
Congress (in addition to the Presidency and two vice 
presidencies, the presidencies of all 15 Congressional 
Committees are up for grabs). 
 
Opposition Rising? 
------------------ 
 
6.  (C) PSC insiders have told us that Febres-Cordero is 
still in shock over the November 9 impeachment defeat in 
Congress.  Febres-Cordero is on his heels, they said, and had 
not expected Gutierrez to turn things around so quickly and 
take the offensive.   PSC leaders are firmly convinced that 
the progressive alliance's actions against the electoral 
tribunal and constitutional court were unconstitutional; 
destitution required a 2/3 vote, not the simple majority 
used.  The Administration is reaching out to the PSC through 
intermediaries, offering to back off its anti-PSC campaign if 
the PSC ousted corrupt Febres-Cordero nephew Miguel Orellana 
and confidant Xavier Neira.  The PSC wants nothing to do with 
the Congressional presidency, leaving it to the ID and PRE to 
fight it out. 
 
7.  (C) Other opposition leaders, meanwhile, discount the 
prospects of the alliance enduring through January 5, and are 
courting the alliance's leftist "swing vote."  Democratic 
Left (ID) legislative leaders warn that a PRE presidency of 
Congress would be disastrous for democratic institutions, as 
that party seeks to dismantle charges against its exiled 
leader, permitting his return.  The PRE would ultimately turn 
on the government and compete directly for votes in the 2006 
presidential election with PRIAN presidential hopeful Alvaro 
Noboa. 
 
8.  (C) Meanwhile, indigenous leaders are fighting among 
themselves.  Indigenous umbrella organization CONAIE will 
choose its leadership later this month.  Pachakutik recently 
expelled four of its eleven Congressional deputies. 
Pachakutik leader Jorge Guaman told us on December 2 that the 
President had called seeking his support for political 
reform.  Pachakutik will not agree absent concrete support 
for indigenous priorities.  He warned that the alliance's 
tactic of expelling sitting justices with a simple majority 
was a distortion of the legislative process and a precedent 
which could be used against Gutierrez in the future. 
Indigenous demonstrations are unlikely in December, he said, 
but might occur in January, depending on the situation. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) President Gutierrez has again demonstrated canny 
survival instincts but we need to continue to fortify GoE 
respect for democratic institutions and constitutional 
procedure.  With the reversal of fortunes on Thanksgiving 
Day, the Gutierrez Administration backed off earlier threats 
by some members of the GoE--although not Gutierrez 
personally--to dissolve Congress.  Since then, there have 
been few signs of a PSC counter-offensive or an indigenous 
mobilization in the works; both are more likely to take place 
in January than in December.  Regardless, we are redoubling 
our outreach with political party leaders of all parties, 
counseling respect for constitutional processes and seeking 
to anticipate possible future instability.  All actors agree 
that the holidays will be busy for political leaders of all 
stripes, and that results will be publicly revealed on 
January 5 when the Congress decides on its leadership. 
KENNEY