US embassy cable - 04ACCRA2367

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002367 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2014 
TAGS: GH, PGOV, PHUM 
SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTION ANALYSIS: NPP LIKELY TO WIN 
 
 
Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e. 
 
1. (C)  Summary:  The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is 
likely to win Ghana's December 7 parliamentary and 
presidential election.  The NPP is well-positioned in its 
traditional strongholds, the heavily populated Ashanti and 
Eastern regions (with 67 combined constituencies out of a 
total of 230.)  The NPP is spending heavily and highlights 
its record of peace and economic growth.  The main opposition 
party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is strong in 
the Volta, Northern, Upper West and Upper East regions, which 
together have 58 constituencies.  Greater Accra, Brong Ahafo, 
Central and Western regions are close races, reportedly with 
large numbers of undecided voters.  The NDC is focusing on 
the alleged poor performance of the NPP government, but is 
handicapped by poor finances and a legacy of human rights 
abuses.  The election outcome will reflect a mix of 
ethnicity, performance, personality, and other variables. 
End summary. 
 
NPP Strongholds 
--------------- 
 
2.  (C)  The Ashanti region, with 39 parliamentary 
constituencies, is President Kufuor's home territory and the 
NPP heartland.  The NPP was founded in Ashanti and won 80 
percent of presidential votes in the 2000 run-off election. 
The party has been actively spreading money, food and other 
resources around the region to cement its support, while 
highlighting its performance in the area over the past four 
years.  Nonetheless, the NPP is unlikely to do as well as in 
2000.  The NDC will probably make small inroads, capitalizing 
on areas of discontent about government performance and 
support from pockets of non-Ashantis living in the region. 
The Eastern region, with 28 constituencies, is also a 
traditional NPP stronghold.  Five out of 19 Cabinet officials 
come from Eastern region, including the Finance and Foreign 
Ministers. 
 
 
NDC's Base in the North and East 
-------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C)  The NDC's traditional vote bank has been in the 
Volta region (22 constituencies), where it won 89 percent of 
the presidential vote in 2000.  The hostile reception 
President Kufuor received while campaigning in Volta region 
suggests this largely Ewe area, home to former President JJ 
Rawlings, still strongly distrusts the Ashanti-dominated NPP. 
 
4.  (C)  The NDC should also win in the Northern region (26 
constituencies), as well as the Upper West (10 seats) and 
Upper East (13 seats).  The NDC won narrowly in the Northern 
region in 2000.  However, perceptions of NPP complicity in 
and/or slowness to seek justice for, the 2002 murder of the 
Ya Na (the Dagbon Andani Chief) will likely hurt the NPP in 
this election, even with the recent, conciliatory visit to 
the area by President Kufuor.  Strong NPP candidates and 
inroads by other parties could slightly erode the NDC's hold 
on the Upper East, which tipped strongly in the NDC's favor 
in 2000. 
 
Four Swing Regions 
------------------ 
 
5.  (C)  The Greater Accra (27 constituencies), Brong Ahafo 
(24), Central (19) and Western (22) regions are more 
difficult to call, with large number of reportedly undecided 
voters and a mixed historical voting record. In Greater 
Accra, the NPP won massively in 2000 but lost in 1996. 
Economic hardships in this predominantly urban area could 
hurt the NPP. 
 
6.  (C)  In Central region, the NPP won decisively in 2000 
and is confident that high cocoa prices and public works in 
the region will bring a repeat victory.  However, the NDC has 
been campaigning hard in this region, presidential candidate 
Atta Mills' home turf. 
 
7.  (C)  The NPP won 62 percent of the presidential ballots 
in Western region in 2000, with a more even match in 
parliamentary seats.  The NPP appears better organized in the 
region and is spending heavily to repeat their victory. 
While anti-incumbency sentiment could reduce the NPP's 
winning margin in the presidential race, it is likely to gain 
some parliamentary seats. 
 
8.  (C)  Brong Ahafo has traditionally been split between the 
NDC and NPP.  The NPP should do well in cocoa and timber 
areas, while the NDC should win in areas with settlers from 
other regions.  The NPP has been spending heavily in this 
region and hopes its 60 percent win in the 2000 presidential 
race will be repeated. 
 
The Big Picture 
--------------- 
 
9.  (C)  The NDC campaign has been slow to build momentum. 
Its vice presidential candidate was knocked out of 
campaigning after being seriously injured in a car accident. 
However, the party has recently energized a door-to-door 
campaign, stressing Kufuor's alleged failure to fulfill 
promises.  The NDC has a solid network of party workers but 
its finances are tight, and many voters are reportedly 
uncomfortable with the human rights and economic legacy of 
former PNDC president JJ Rawlings.  Fears about the NDC may 
be reinforced by the final report of the National 
Reconciliation Commission (parts of which were leaked to the 
media), linking Rawlings to the 1982 murder of three High 
Court judges and a retired army officer. 
 
10.  (C)  The NPP has the benefits and handicaps of 
incumbency.  It is better organized and financed, has greater 
access to the media, and has been aggressive at strategically 
distributing money, goods, and projects for electoral gain. 
However, it has suffered from internal squabbles and faces 
criticism about some unfulfilled promises.  According to a 
nationwide opinion poll conducted in June, 2004 by the 
National Commission for Civic Education, the top voter 
concerns (in rank order) are:  educational standards, access 
to affordable health care, the high cost of living, and 
unemployment.  Despite macroeconomic achievements the NPP has 
highlighted in campaign ads, many of our contacts believe 
most Ghanaians do not feel economically better off than four 
years ago.  These voters may still vote NPP, our contacts 
concede, because they are not ready to go back to NDC rule. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (C)  While there are no opinion polls, campaign 2004 
appears to be a competitive match between the NDC (which 
currently has 89 parliamentary seats) and the NPP (with 103 
seats).  At play are a mix of ethnicity, performance, 
personality, legacy, and other factors.  The NPP enjoys an 
overwhelming advantage in distributing resources and using 
the benefits of incumbency.  It also benefits from the fears 
still conjured by the NDC.  One Ghanaian told PolChief she 
was switching her vote from NDC to NPP out of disgust for 
Rawlings' recent alleged assault on a District Chief 
Executive in Upper East. 
 
12.  (C)  We believe the NPP will do well in both the 
parliamentary and presidential elections.  The NPP is likely 
to win a first round victory in the presidential race (it 
needs to win 50 percent of votes, plus one ballot, to prevent 
a second round run-off).  In 2000, the polling went to a 
second round because five small parties garnered a combined 7 
percent of the popular vote, leaving the NDC with 44.5 
percent and the NPP with 48.1 percent of the total tally. 
This year, only two small parties are competing with the NDC 
and NPP and neither has gained much traction in the 
presidential race.  The Convention Peoples Party (CPP) could 
gain several parliamentary seats (it currently has one), 
while the People's National Convention party (PNC) is 
unlikely to improve on its current three seats. 
YATES