US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO1936

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001936 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  OPPOSITION LAMENTS PRESIDENT'S 
"PARTISAN" TACK, JVP EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE THE PEACE PROCESS 
 
REF: A. STATE 25478 (NOTAL) 
 
     B. COLOMBO 1919 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) In a December 1 meeting with the DCM, Opposition 
Leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe denied 
making remarks attributed to him in the local press 
withdrawing support from President Chandrika Kumaratunga's 
efforts to resume negotiations with the Liberation Tigers of 
Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  Averring that his United National Party 
(UNP) remains committed to reviving talks based on the 
principles outlined in the Oslo and Tokyo declarations, 
Wickremesinghe charged that the President's main priority is 
advancing her personal political career--rather than the 
peace process.  Wickremesinghe advisor and UNP MP Milinda 
Moragoda expressed concern that the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP)--and the President, by not reining in her coalition 
partner--are "playing a dangerous game" by inciting unrest in 
the ethnically diverse East and animosity toward Norwegian 
facilitators and Nordic truce monitors in the Sinhalese 
south.  Both Wickremesinghe and Moragoda asked that the U.S. 
urge President Kumaratunga to restrain the JVP and not to 
politicize the peace process.  DCM noted that an as-yet 
unscheduled meeting between the co-chairs and either the 
President or the Foreign Minister could provide an 
opportunity to do so.  He also told the UNP leaders that it 
is difficult for outsiders to understand why the two centrist 
Sinhalese parties cannot take a bipartisan approach to the 
peace process.  It is a bit disingenuous for the Opposition 
Leader--one of whose closest advisors he lured from 
Chandrika's inner circle--to claim the moral high ground on 
non-partisan politics.  At the same time, however, we agree 
that the JVP's Tiger-baiting and increasingly shrill 
Norwegian-bashing are unwelcome developments that invite 
dangerous implications.  End summary. 
 
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PRESIDENTIAL MP-POACHING: 
"PLAYING POLITICS WITH THE PEACE PROCESS" 
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2.  (C) In a December 1 meeting with the DCM and poloff 
(notetaker), Opposition Leader and former Prime Minister 
Ranil Wickremesinghe complained that partisan politics and 
preoccupation with her political future, rather than the 
peace process, have become President Chandrika Kumaratunga's 
priority.  To abolish the executive presidency (in favor of 
an executive premiership which, presumably, she could 
occupy), the President "is going down the road to a 
constituent assembly," Wickremesinghe lamented--a potentially 
dangerous step that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE) could manipulate to win endorsement of its 
controversial proposal for an interim administration.  (Note: 
 A more detailed discussion of the various routes, 
constitutional and otherwise, that the President might use to 
extend her tenure as head of government follows septel.  End 
note.)  Referring to the November 18 defection of United 
National Party (UNP) MP Rohitha Bogollagama to the Government 
(just in time for the budget vote), Wickremesinghe charged 
that Kumaratunga continues to try to lure his party stalwarts 
to cross the aisle.  Most objectionable, he continued, was 
the President's attempt to justify her blatant MP-poaching on 
the basis of the peace process.  "She is playing politics 
with the peace process," the UNP leader charged. 
 
3.  (C)  Wickremesinghe said that Kumaratunga's flagrant 
politicking makes him question whether she is genuinely 
interested in a bipartisan approach to the peace process. 
Denying comments attributed to him in the local press over 
the weekend withdrawing his support from Government efforts 
in the peace process, he reiterated that the UNP remains 
committed to  negotiations based on the principles outlined 
in the Oslo and Tokyo declarations.  Wickremesinghe said, 
however, that he wants an unequivocal statement from the 
President that she is truly interested in a bipartisan 
approach before he will make an unequivocal statement of 
support for her efforts in the peace process.  The UNP has 
already communicated that request to her, he indicated, but 
she has yet to respond.  The DCM replied that bipartisan 
support for the peace process is the best way to put pressure 
on the Tigers to resume talks and urged the Opposition Leader 
to follow that path, rather than seeking reasons to withdraw 
support from the President's efforts.  It is difficult for 
outsiders to understand why the UNP and the President's Sri 
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), largely similar in substance, 
cannot cooperate on peace, the DCM said.  He told 
Wickremesinge and UNP MP Milinda Moragoda, who also 
participated in the meeting, that the co-chairs were trying 
to help find a way to revive the stalled peace process and 
warned that international interest in Sri Lanka may flag if 
the impasse continues. 
 
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JVP HIJACKING PROCESS 
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4.  (C) Wickremesinghe said that the President's dependence 
upon the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP), her largest coalition partner, limits her ability to 
accept the Tiger demand that its proposed Interim 
Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) form the basis of resumed 
negotiations.  "She needs the JVP to get the constituent 
assembly" and prolong her hold on power, he said, reiterating 
accusations that the President's concern for her political 
career trumps her interest in advancing the peace process. 
Moragoda predicted that the JVP will stay in the coalition 
"as long as they can rattle the (Tigers') cage" and pander to 
the Sinhalese south with bellicose, hardline statements about 
refusing to accept the ISGA.  "If she goes for talks, the JVP 
will lose their base" in the Sinhalese south, Moragoda said. 
While issuing provocative statements, leading anti-Tiger 
demonstrations in the East and putting pressure on the 
Norwegian facilitators may help the JVP portray itself as the 
champions of Sinhalese interests, Moragoda observed, the 
former Marxist insurgents are "playing a dangerous game," 
with Tiger leader Prabhakaran as the most lethal wild card in 
the deck.  "An insecure Prabhakaran is far more dangerous 
than a secure Prabhakaran," Moragoda noted; whether the JVP's 
Tiger-baiting is enough to tip the balance remains to be seen. 
 
5.  (C)  The JVP is also trying to whip up sentiment against 
the peace process and Norwegian facilitators among the 
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), whose representation in 
Parliament is composed entirely of Buddhist monks from the 
Sinhalese majority, Wickremesinghe warned.  Mainstream 
parties (like the UNP and the SLFP) are finding it 
increasingly difficult to keep the JVP at bay, Moragoda 
observed, leaving extreme elements (like the JVP and the 
LTTE) free to muddy the playing field and advance their own 
agendas.  Wickremesinghe urged the co-chairs to "encourage" 
the President to promote bipartisan support for the peace 
process and to restrain the JVP's provocative posturing.  The 
President should be encouraged to recognize that her legacy 
will rest on her success in guiding the peace process, rather 
than in extending her term in power indefinitely, Moragoda 
said, and re-order her priorities accordingly. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) It is more than a little disingenuous for 
Wickremesinghe to cry foul over Kumaratunga trying to pick 
off his MPs--especially since Wickremesinghe himself counts 
erstwhile SLFP MP and Kumaratunga ally G.L. Peiris among his 
closest confidants and most eloquent Kumaratunga critics. 
Nonetheless, the President's continued efforts to increase 
her tally of reliable votes in Parliament suggest that she is 
positioning herself to win a vote to abolish the term-limited 
executive presidency--a move that hypothetically could land 
her the post of prime minister and extend her tenure as head 
of government.  Relegating the peace process to the back 
burner while plotting this strategy would obviously be an 
unwelcome development.  Even more undesirable--and 
potentially more dangerous--is the President's apparent 
inclination to allow the JVP free rein to go toe-to-toe with 
the Tigers in the East and to bash the Norwegians in Colombo 
and the Sinhalese south.  We will stress these concerns to 
the Government in the as-yet unscheduled co-chairs meeting 
and urge the President to reassure the Opposition of her 
commitment to a bipartisan approach to the peace process.  At 
the same time, we will continue to tell the UNP leadership, 
which also clearly puts politics before the peace process, 
that the path of bipartisanship is the only way forward. 
 
LUNSTEAD