US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3809

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003809 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, KPAO, TW 
SUBJECT: "CHINA TIMES" ARTICLES ON WASHINGTON'S 
CONCERNS OVER TAIWAN'S PLAN FOR A NEW CONSTITUTION 
 
Summary:  The Chinese-language "China Times" carried a 
news analysis by Washington correspondent Liu Ping 
discussing the United States' concerns over some recent 
moves by Taiwan that might have crossed the "red line" 
and as a result, triggered tension across the Taiwan 
Strait.  The "China Times" also ran an on-the-spot 
report describing State Department Richard Boucher's 
reaction when he replied to a related question at the 
State Department's regular news briefing.  Full text 
translation of the news analysis and some block quotes 
of the on-the-spot report follow. 
 
A) "Worrying about Taiwan Crossing the Red Line, the 
United States Sends out Warnings" 
 
Washington correspondent Liu Ping said in the centrist, 
pro-status quo "China Times" (12/1): 
 
"On an early autumn evening, in a city away from 
Washington, a U.S official in charge of East Asian 
affairs lamented: "There has never been any U.S. 
president that is so friendly with Taiwan like 
President George W. Bush.  But many of the approaches 
or moves taken by Taiwan . ." A senior adviser to 
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian placed advertisements 
in U.S. newspapers questioning the United States' cross- 
Strait policy; a Taiwan official whose rank equals that 
of a premier hosted a conference in Washington on 
`instituting a constitution [for Taiwan],' something 
that Washington hates to see; cross-Strait tension has 
escalated [beyond] that of four years ago; and Taiwan's 
special arms procurement budget, which the United 
States cares very much about, has now reached an 
impasse and does not seem to be going anywhere.  All of 
the events above are reasons why this American official 
felt sad.  The statements by Secretary of State Collin 
Powell later that astonished Taiwan also had something 
to do with these reasons. 
 
"Over the past few weeks, as [Taiwan's] legislative 
election approaches, several moves by Taiwan have 
really opened the United States' eyes.  Candidates 
running in the legislative elections are talking 
recklessly; moreover, President Chen has been 
continuously throwing out one issue after another.  Of 
course the United States can sometimes dismiss such 
issues with a laugh, but for certain issues, it has to 
face them cautiously.  The `soft coup' issue belongs to 
the former category, while the `referendum on a new 
constitution' belongs to the latter one. 
 
"Among the issues that President Chen has talked about 
lately, the new constitution is not the only one that 
the United States is worried about.  The United States 
has also expressed concern over such controversial 
issues as revising `history textbooks' and `changing 
[Taiwan's] national emblem.'  Rumor has it that Deputy 
Assistant Secretary of State Randy Schriver called 
Taipei and inquired about the dispute over history 
textbooks.  What is involved in these issues is not 
only that a new crisis might emerge across the Taiwan 
Strait but also that a confrontation might ignite 
within Taiwan, and this is something that the United 
States does not hope to see. 
 
"The United States knows that many remarks made by 
President Chen are campaign rhetoric.  However, when 
some comments have been said repeatedly not only by 
Chen himself but also by people who surround him, and 
they have been said not only in Taiwan but also in the 
United States as well, the United States cannot view 
these comments simply as [being meant for] `domestic 
consumption in Taiwan.'  What the United States is 
concerned about is that Taiwan has been trying to use 
this approach to test the bottom line.  It is uncertain 
when Taiwan will cross the red line if the United 
States does not stop Taiwan right now. 
 
"As James Mulvenon, an expert at Rand Corp, said at a 
seminar on the Peoples' Liberation Army, 2006 is a 
critical year because President Chen will hold a 
referendum on [Taiwan's] new constitution that year -- 
a move that will indicate `crossing the de jure red 
line' and bring unexpectedly serious consequences [for 
Taiwan]. 
 
"Many experts and scholars share the same concerns. 
According to their observations, some people in Taiwan 
firmly believe that China will not use force against 
Taiwan, especially before 2008 (when the Olympic Games 
are to be held in Beijing).  Even if China did use 
force against Taiwan, the United States would 
definitely defeat China.  Hence, the DPP government 
chose to put the new constitution to a referendum in 
2006 and put it into effect in 2008.  Due to these 
concerns, the United States has explicitly expressed 
its view that President Chen's "four No's" pledge and 
the referendum on a new constitution cannot be viewed 
separately. 
 
"Sources said the United States is actually very 
concerned about [Taiwan's] special arms budget.  As a 
result, the United States would be very happy if 
President Chen's campaign rhetoric was being made in 
order to help the Pan-Green alliance win the majority 
of seats [in the legislative elections] and, further, 
to get the budget [passed] as soon as possible. 
However, since the purpose of the arms budget is to 
maintain the peace [across the Taiwan Strait], any 
careless campaign rhetoric that may result in burying 
peace is not in the interests of the United States. 
 
"In the aforementioned seminar, a paper presented by 
Heritage Foundation specialist John Tkacik (which was 
read out by his colleague Harvey Feldman) pointed out 
that many people consider Chinese President Hu Jintao 
to be a reformer, like the Mikhail Gorbachev of China, 
but in reality he is not.  `Gorbachev did not have iron 
teeth, but Hu Jintao does,' Tkacik said.  The 
implication is that Hu will take a hard stand [toward 
Taiwan] whenever necessary.  Since the ruling 
government in Taiwan welcomes every statement made by 
Tkacik, why does it not take his observation about Hu 
more seriously?" 
 
B) "Richard Boucher Puts It in a Serious Way When He 
Asks Chen to Give an Explanation" 
 
Washington correspondent Liu Ping said in a second 
article in the centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
(12/1): 
 
". But when asked about President Chen's plan to `hold 
a referendum on [Taiwan's] new constitution', [State 
Department Spokesman] Richard Boucher stopped smiling, 
took out written documents that had been prepared in 
advance, and read out verbatim Chen's `four No's' 
pledge he made four years ago.  When talking, Boucher 
`complimented President Chen's commitment and his later 
reconfirmation,' but on the other hand, he used words 
like `take it seriously,' `the (pledge) is very, very 
important' to express the United States' strong concern 
about whether [Chen] can keep his commitments. 
 
"It is rare to hear [Boucher use] words like `such 
commitments must be respected.'  He was reminding Chen 
that `A ruler is expected to honor all his promises,' 
but in reality, he was admonishing Chen not to cross 
the red line.  Diplomatic rhetoric can sound very 
reserved, but one must read the meaning concealed 
between the lines.  Boucher is well-known for giving 
moderate replies.  But judging from his choice of 
words, the context, his posture and the scene on the 
spot, what the United States wanted to convey was 
actually very clear." 
 
PAAL