US embassy cable - 01ABUJA3280

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003280 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2011 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO REVIEW ELECTORAL ACT 
 
REF: ABUJA 3228 
 
 
(U) Classified by CDA Andrews; Reasons 1.5 (b/d). 
 
 
1. (U) The Nigerian House of Representatives may cut short 
its holiday recess (through January 22) to the first week of 
January to review the electoral act signed by President 
Obasanjo on December 6.  Speaker of the House Ghali Umar 
Na'Abba said that a committee created at his discretion had 
already met and drafted an amended version of the law.  The 
Senate may also review the law during a session primarily 
addressing security in the wake of the Ige assassination.  A 
principal point in the controversy is the allegation that the 
legislation Obasanjo signed is not identical to the bill 
passed by the National Assembly. 
 
 
2. (C) Since Obasanjo signed the controversial act, it has 
been at the center stage of Nigerian politics (reftel), 
overtaken in the media only by the assassination of Attorney 
General Chief Bola Ige.  The governors, in addition to human 
and civil rights advocates and members of new political 
associations, complain that the act was designed to protect 
Federal-level incumbents against challengers and the existing 
parties (or at least the PDP and APP, since the AD is falling 
apart) against new political groupings. 
 
 
3.  (U) One of the most controversial sections of the law 
(Clause 80.1) dictates that only parties gaining 10 percent 
of the seats in local government elections spread among at 
least two-thirds of Nigeria's states are allowed to contest 
in national elections.  Because the act also dictates that 
local government elections will occur after state and 
national contests, the act precludes new political parties 
from contesting for state and national seats in 2003. 
(Moreover, since the governors will be replaced before local 
government officials, it removes a great deal of 
gubernatorial influence in 2003.).  It will be extremely 
difficult for new political groups to build strength among 
the electorate and to raise funds if they have no hope of 
influence beyond the LGA level in 2003. 
 
 
4. (C) It now appears that this controversial clause may not 
have been in the final version of the bill passed by the 
National Assembly to the President.  Speaker Na'Abba, 
describing the chain of events in "ThisDay" on December 27, 
stated that the President sought amendments from the Assembly 
after he received the bill, but that this request had been 
rejected.  According to Na'Abba, the controversial clause 
80.1 was not in the bill that the Assembly sent to the 
President for his signature.  His implication is that 
President Obasanjo or his advisers engaged in some sort of 
line-item amendment.  Several Senators have suggested the 
same thing. 
 
 
5. (C) Beyond the doubtful constitutionality of a line-item 
amendment, the allegation of impropriety on the part of Aso 
Rock does nothing to build confidence in the political 
system.  Already, prominent voices are questioning whether 
the President broke the law.  Secretary of the Board of 
Trustees of the United Nigeria Development Party Bashir A. 
Albasu, described the action of the President as an 
impeachable offense, and said the system was moving in such a 
way as to allow Obasanjo to become a "civilian dictator." 
 
 
6.  (SBU) Of course, voices from new political organizations 
are the most vehement.  However, dissenting voices are being 
raised even within Obasanjo's own party.  Representative 
Farouq Lawan (PDP-Kano), Chairman of the House 
Inter-Parliamentary Relations Committee noted that the clause 
on new party exclusion was never discussed on the House 
floor, and said, "This is not dictatorship.  This is 
democracy and you cannot impose an unpopular law on the 
people."  Senator Samaila Mamman (PDP-Kano), called 
Obasanjo's action "immoral," and publicly threatened to 
resign his seat if the upper house refuses to review the law 
when it resumes business in January. 
 
 
7. (SBU) More disturbing are growing references to Nigeria's 
troubled past.  National Chairman of the People's Redemption 
Party (PRP), Alhaji Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa, was quoted as 
saying that, "This was what happened in the 1983 elections, 
when the then-ruling National Party of Nigeria used its 
incumbency to win the whole elections, this action prompted 
the military to take over power from the NPN after only three 
months of stolen tenure." 
 
 
8. (C) The electoral law was the subject of much public 
debate on its merits, even before questions about the 
propriety of its enactment were raised.  If a political 
solution cannot be found quickly, the courts may find 
themselves faced not only with a question of whether the law 
(as signed by Obasanjo) is compatible with the 1999 
Constitution but also asked to determine whether the law 
before them was duly enacted. 
Andrews