US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3793

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003793 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, 
UKRAINE ELECTIONS 
 
1. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
"U.S. Continues Two-pronged Policy" 
 
Associate professor Yu Pen-li of the Graduate Institute 
of American Studies, Tamkang University, said in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
(11/29): 
 
". In the future, the new US government will face 
several new diplomatic challenges, such as the 
reconstruction of Iraq, the Israeli-Palestine situation 
following the death of Palestinian president Yasser 
Arafat and the North Korean nuclear issue.  Doubtless 
they would be glad to see stability in the Taiwan 
Strait and the Asia-Pacific region so that they can 
concentrate on these other issues. 
 
". Following this logic, China will become its [i.e. 
Washington's] most important partner when it comes to 
global anti-terrorism and anti-proliferation efforts. 
Based on a realistic appraisal of the international 
political situation, the members of the Vulcan group 
will expand cooperation with China and downplay 
differences of opinion. 
 
"In other words, if the Vulcans want to see China as a 
diplomatic and strategic partner in the 21st century, 
it would be impossible for them to oppose Beijing over 
the question of Taiwan. 
 
"Based on Washington's objective of strategic balance 
in the Asia-Pacific region, stability in the Taiwan 
Strait will be an important pillar of US security, and 
Taiwan will be key in supporting this strategic 
balance.  From this perspective, Bush's new team will 
not rashly abandon Taiwan, and the US is unwilling to 
tie any other issue to its arms sales to Taiwan. 
 
"But this support for Taiwan is not a blank check for 
Taiwan to use any which way.  Although Bush didn't 
repeat the statements Powell made at a press conference 
in Beijing while meeting with Chinese President Hu 
Jintao at the APEC summit in Chile, this doesn't mean 
that the Powell effect has dissipated.  The US leaders' 
emphasis on a consistent cross-strait policy seems to 
mean that the US will continue its clear, two-pronged 
policy.  China should not take armed action, and Taiwan 
should not declare independence. 
 
"In other words, the most important goal of US cross- 
strait policy is still to maintain the status quo, as 
defined by the US. 
 
"If Taiwan's government continues to misjudge the 
international situation, and US statements lead them to 
believe that the storm following Powell's statement has 
blown out, it may continue to move toward independence 
by, for example, holding a Taiwan independence 
referendum, or amending the law to allow changing the 
national emblem.  This may cause the situation in the 
Taiwan Strait to deteriorate and maybe even give rise 
to a fourth cross-strait crisis. 
 
"In future, it is possible that Washington will issue a 
fourth communiqu with Beijing, to avert a crisis and 
guarantee stability in the Taiwan Strait and in East 
Asia.  A fourth communiqu could clearly state that 
Taiwan does not enjoy sovereignty and that the US 
opposes Taiwan's independence, and even change the 
tactic of `pushing for dialogue' to `pushing for 
unification' in order to restrain Taiwan's actions. 
This could be even more harmful to Taiwan. 
 
"For the sake of national interest, the most urgent 
task for Taiwan's government is to show restraint, 
strive for cross-strait stability, rebuild mutual trust 
between Taiwan and the US and put the US-Taiwan 
relationship back on track.  This is the only way that 
the nation can continue to exist and develop." 
 
2. Ukraine Elections 
 
"Is Taiwan More Like the United States or Ukraine?" 
 
Deputy Editor-in-Chief Kuo Chen-lung noted in the 
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" (11/30): 
 
"Taiwan's democratic development, though characterized 
d 
by its local color, is not really unique.  Other 
countries' development models can often be used for 
comparison, and recently, the development models of the 
United States and of Ukraine are most frequently 
referred to. . 
 
"[U.S.] President George W. Bush did not win his re- 
election by adopting a middle-of-the-road route but by 
locating those Christian voters who have rigid 
ideology.  In other words, the neo-conservatism that 
prevailed in Bush's first term did not dissipate or 
alter because of the unprecedented close [presidential] 
elections.  Rather, the conservative trend will be even 
more reinforced during Bush's second term because Bush 
has identified those fundamentalist voters as his 
`basic supporters.'  Judged from this perspective, 
Taiwan's DPP is more like the current Republicans. . 
 
"But in the eyes of the Taiwan people, what's more 
stirring is to look at the election dispute in Ukraine. 
. 
 
"People cannot help but wonder what would have happened 
if some of the key political interactions in Ukraine 
had taken place in Taiwan?" 
 
"First, [in Ukraine,] the opposition congressmen met by 
themselves and determined that the results of the 
presidential election were invalid.  This move is a 
perfect demonstration of public opinion and Congress 
happens to be the institution that has absolute 
authority to do so when there is contention concerning 
the presidency of a nation.  What if the Pan-Blue camp, 
which held a majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, 
called for an extraordinary session on March 20 and 
passed a resolution that nullified the president 
election results? 
 
"Second, Ukraine's defense minister issued a statement 
saying he did not mobilize any troops and he did not 
intend to upgrade the alert level of the country. 
People saw such a move as [signifying that] the Ukraine 
military was holding a neutral position . and knew that 
the military would not step in even if there were a 
riot.  What would have happened if the then Taiwan 
Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming had not claimed he was 
sick and stayed in the hospital and had instead spoken 
in public that the military will act according to the 
constitution and would stay neutral before the 
presidential election result is ascertained? 
 
"Third, even though Ukraine's central election 
commission announced the ballot-counting results, the 
opposition faction demanded straight away that the 
country's supreme court stop the central election 
commission from making a formal announcement about the 
president-elect, and the supreme court immediately 
agreed to review the dispute case. . What would have 
happened if the Pan-Blue camp in Taiwan had filed the 
lawsuit regarding the controversial presidential 
election at the Grand Justices meeting instead of at 
the Taiwan High Court and had demanded that the Central 
Election Commission refrain from announcing [Chen Shui- 
bian] as the president-elect?" 
 
PAAL