US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1538

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 001538 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE PASS TO MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION 
STATE FOR AF/S AND AF/FO 
MCC FOR BRIGGS AND GAULL 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MZ, Elections 04 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE 2004 GENERAL ELECTIONS: ELECTION EVE 
 
REF: A. MAPUTO 1494 
 
B. MAPUTO 1474 
C. MAPUTO 1406 
D. MAPUTO 1371 
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b/d) 
 
Summary 
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1. (C) Campaigning for Mozambique's December 1 - 2 general 
elections has ended, and there is no consensus as to what 
outcome is likely. The negotiations between the National 
Elections Commission and the European Union appear to have 
ended with the release of a new electoral process directive 
that sets the level of observer access at the tabulation 
phases. The changes do not meet EU demands for full 
transparency, but they do appear to reduce the space for 
manipulation. Similarly, vote tabulation software appears to 
have been made more secure, though RENAMO continues to 
express concern. The two main parties are accusing each 
other of planning various dirty tricks. Former President 
Carter has arrived to lead the Carter Center observation 
effort. Post does not expect major problems on the voting 
days, though isolated incidents and some confusion are 
inevitable, as are RENAMO claims of fraud. Once the voting 
is complete, attention will shift to the provincial and 
national levels of tabulation, which are expected to last 
until the December 17 deadline for publication of results. 
End Summary. 
 
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Campaign Ends 
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2. (C) The official campaign period ended December 28. 
FRELIMO candidate Armando Guebuza and RENAMO candidate Afonso 
Dhlakama drew enthusiastic crowds to their events, though it 
is not clear how many were attracted by T-shirts and other 
handouts. Guebuza's rallies have included large numbers of 
government workers and officials, and many observers assume 
that FRELIMO is using public resources. Mrs. Guebuza has 
played a visible campaign role, making her the first 
candidate's wife to do so. Dhlakama has made many 
unrealistic promises of the prosperity that would result if 
he is elected. He also claimed in a recent interview that if 
the election is not democratic, he would govern by force in 
the provinces where he wins a majority, though it is 
difficult to imagine him attempting to do so. Unlike in the 
1999 election, candidates from three other parties are in the 
race. One, Raul Domingos of the Party for Peace, Development 
and Democracy (PDD) appears to be attracting support. In the 
absence of reliable polls (polls are prohibited during the 
campaign, and the few pre-campaign polls were not credible), 
it is not clear what result is likely. 
 
3. (C) Domingos' apparent success has led some observers to 
raise the possibility of a runoff. In 1999, running only 
against Dhlakama, incumbent President Chissano only managed 
to get 52 percent of the votes. It is conceivable that 
Guebuza and Dhlakama could split most of the vote with 
Domingos receiving five percent or so, which would mean that 
no candidate would receive the 50 percent needed for a 
first-round victory. According to electoral law, a runoff 
must take place within 21 days from the date the National 
Elections Commission (CNE) publishes the first round results, 
set by law for December 17. Despite claims that a runoff 
would not be difficult logistically, a UNDP source at the 
Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE) 
admitted during a November 18 donor group meeting that no 
planning or preparation has taken place to support a second 
round. There are more than 10 million registered voters and 
12,000 polling stations throughout the country, so it is 
unclear how another round could occur on schedule. The 
source implied that there may be wiggle room in the law, 
predicting that any runoff would not be held before 
mid-February. 
 
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CNE Sets Terms of Observer Access 
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4. (C) On November 18, the CNE effectively closed the door to 
further negotiations on observer access with the issuance of 
a new directive, Deliberation 77. (Ten of the CNE's 18 
members represent FRELIMO, while the others represent RENAMO. 
Many of the recent electoral process decisions have been 
taken by the FRELIMO majority over the opposition of the 
RENAMO representatives.) The directive caught many close to 
the dispute by surprise. According to a source at the Dutch 
Embassy, the negotiations, though admittedly stalled, had not 
been abandoned by the EU and they were unaware the CNE was 
planning new directives. Deliberation 77 is an improvement, 
in that press and observers are provided access to the 
reclassification of null and protested ballots, as well as a 
computer link to view final tabulation data. However, the 
access granted still falls short of full transparency sought 
by the European Union, the Carter Center and Commonwealth 
observers. In addition to these groups, there also will be 
observers from the Southern African Development Community 
(SADC) member states and embassies resident in Maputo, 
including 17 from post. (See reftels.) Former President 
Carter arrived in Maputo on November 28 to head the Carter 
Center's observation mission. 
 
5. (C) Deliberation 77 also confirms that there will be two 
official parallel quick counts by the STAE -- one at the 
provincial level and one in Maputo -- both completed on the 
basis of polling station result sheets (editais). 
Deliberation 77 states that the provincial count "prevails, 
in general," over the Maputo count. However, the CNE may 
overrule provincial count decisions in all parts of the 
tabulation process. Any such decisions would be carried out 
by the CNE without public access, though the RENAMO CNE 
members would presumably be present, and it is unclear if the 
CNE will later publish a full list of changes made to 
provincial counts. On a positive note, unlike years past, 
copies of editais from individual polling stations will not 
be faxed to the CNE in Maputo for the parallel count but will 
be hand-carried by two people, each representing one of the 
two major parties. (Note: RENAMO's objection to faxing 
editais was upheld by the CNE, based on experience from the 
2003 municipal elections where a FRELIMO STAE technician in 
Beira was caught tampering with editais before they were 
faxed. End note.) 
 
6. (C) However, as in past elections, the CNE has again ruled 
that polling station results excluded from the provincial 
count due to errors, often minor human ones, will be 
reconsidered by the CNE without public access. In the 1999 
elections, more than 1800 editais, or 11 percent of the 
total, were excluded from provincial totals and sent to 
Maputo for reconsideration by the CNE. That year, RENAMO 
walked out in protest during the time-consuming and often 
contentious reconsideration process, leaving FRELIMO CNE 
members to make final judgments. In the end, the CNE 
accepted about one-third of the problem editais, rejecting 
the remaining two-thirds as unusable. This meant that over 
300,000 votes cast for president were not counted. (Note: 
Various international organizations conducted parallel 
calculations that suggested the excluded editais came from 
areas supporting RENAMO. However, no recalculation indicated 
that the final result would have changed in favor of 
Dhlakama. End note.) 
 
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New Polling Stations 
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7. (SBU) Some diplomats and international donor 
representatives are also concerned with the recent addition 
of polling locations. Voters in Mozambique may only cast 
ballots at their designated polling station, usually the site 
where the individual registered to vote. STAE has recently 
added new polling locations for this year's general 
elections, in some cases miles away from existing sites. 
Despite civic education campaigns informing voters of 
adjustments in locations, the changes are likely to 
disenfranchise some voters. 
 
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Watching the Count 
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8. (SBU) There is also the issue of observer access at the 
provincial and national tabulation phases, where the records 
of votes from each polling station will be added and disputed 
or invalid votes reviewed. Although the CNE spokesperson 
recently assured the press that journalists, party 
representatives, and observers could pull up through a 
computer link any edital from any polling station and compare 
it to their own copy, it is still unclear whether this will 
indeed be possible. Not all provinces will be equipped with 
computer links for observers, and in practice, provincial 
election officials will have a considerable amount of leeway 
in what observers may do. In addition, the database will not 
provide details on missing editais -- the result of slow data 
entry, perhaps, or the more troublesome excluded editais. 
Also, limitations in data collected by observers and party 
representatives means that there will be discrepancies 
between the provincial final results and the observer data, 
opening the window for manipulation. The CNE has only 
recently approved the software used to tabulate the editais - 
reportedly over RENAMO objections. After a very quick audit, 
which appears to have resulted in changes to make the system 
somewhat more secure, the system was presented to the 
parties, observers, and the press on November 27. 
 
9. (SBU) Both FRELIMO and RENAMO will conduct detailed 
parallel counts, as will the National Electoral Observatory 
(an NGO) helped by the Carter Center. Organizations involved 
in the parallel counts are confident that, if they have the 
information they need before the election to choose their 
sample sites, their counts will be no more than two percent 
off the actual results. With this proviso, manipulation in 
anything but a close race ought to be easily detected. 
 
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Mutual Accusations 
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10. (C) As the voting approaches, FRELIMO and RENAMO have 
accused each other of plotting various misdeeds. President 
Chissano told the Ambassador during their Nov. 24 meeting on 
Zimbabwe (septel) that RENAMO was readying disruption tactics 
to use during the voting. He said he had learned that RENAMO 
would urge all its supporters to cast their ballots on the 
first day of voting, December 1. Then, on December 2, party 
activists would stage "disturbances" to scare off other 
voters, most of them presumably FRELIMO backers. Separately, 
RENAMO has claimed that there is a plot to kill Dhlakama, and 
RENAMO called embassies to report that police had fired tear 
gas at Dhlakama supporters at RENAMO's Nov. 28 
end-of-campaign rally. Also, RENAMO continues to object to 
nearly all CNE decisions relating to the elections process, 
and the CNE has accused RENAMO of instructing its 
participants in the process to block the use of the vote 
tabulation software. Post has not heard independent 
confirmation of any of the various allegations. 
 
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Comment 
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11. (SBU) Post expects routine problems at polling places on 
the voting days, mainly of a logistical rather than an 
intentional nature. We also expect RENAMO to claim fraud 
regardless of how widespread these problems are. Once the 
voting is complete, attention will shift to the provincial 
and national levels of tabulation, which are expected to last 
until the December 17 deadline for publication of results. 
LA LIME