US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3782

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003782 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: CSB HITS CONSTITUTION THEMES ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL 
 
REF: TAIPEI 2662 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian told an audience on 
November 27 that he will "terminate the Chinese constitution" 
during his second term of office regardless of international 
pressure.  Chen, appearing on the same stage as former 
President Lee Teng-hui, told the group that if the voters 
give the Pan-Green a majority on December 11, he would ensure 
the enactment of a "New Taiwan Constitution" by 2008, which 
would be approved via a public referendum.  Chen stopped 
short of endorsing Lee's call for creating an entirely new 
constitution, however, insisting that whether it was 
"revision" or "creation" of a constitution, the content 
mattered more than the process.  Reaction from the Pan-Blue 
was divided.  KMT Chairman Lien Chan reiterated that Chen 
should "have the guts" to call for a referendum on Taiwan 
independence on December 11.  KMT Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, 
however, publicly downplayed Chen's remarks as simple 
campaign rhetoric, asserting that the president would back 
off after the election.  Chen is likely to reiterate his 
constitution themes in the final two weeks of the campaign, 
despite efforts by his advisors to steer him toward the 
political center.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian told an audience on November 
27 that he will "terminate the Chinese constitution" during 
his second term of office, "no matter how much international 
pressure there is."  Speaking at an international conference 
hosted by the Lee Teng-hui affiliated Taiwan Advocates think 
tank, Chen said that if the Pan-Green secured a legislative 
majority on December 11, he will ensure the enactment of a 
"New Taiwan Constitution" on May 20, 2008.  Chen asserted 
that this constitution would be subject to a referendum in 
2006 (note: this is required under the draft constitutional 
amendments passed by the Legislative Yuan in August, 2004, 
reftel).  The president compared Taiwan's use of the 1947 
"ROC" constitution meant for all of China to "a child wearing 
adult clothes."  Chen sidestepped calls from Lee for Taiwan 
to establish a completely new constitution (zhixian), stating 
that what is important is the content of constitutional 
reform, not the terminology for the change. 
 
Lee Teng-hui: Revisions Are Not Enough 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Speaking at the same event, former President Lee 
criticized plans to simply "revise" the constitution, 
asserting that only a whole-scale rewrite of the document 
will allow Taiwan to have a constitution appropriate to 
current realities.  Lee continued that revisions would also 
fail to address the core problems of territorial definitions 
contained in the current constitution.  At a rally in Miaoli 
County the same day, Lee told a crowd that Taiwan needed a 
new constitution in order to finally break its linkages to 
China, drawing a parallel between the United States and Great 
Britain. 
 
Pan-Blue: Understanding and Provocations 
---------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Pan-Blue reactions to Chen's statements diverged 
sharply.  KMT Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou told reporters that 
the president's statements were simply campaign rhetoric 
aimed at strengthening his core political base.  He expressed 
confidence that the president would not follow through on his 
campaign statements after the election due to pressure from 
the U.S.  He also urged people to "have understanding" over 
the president's political predicament, including pressure 
from former President Lee.  Other Pan-Blue leaders reacted 
sharply, with KMT Chairman Lien Chan reiterating his demand 
that Chen "have the guts" to call for a referendum on Taiwan 
independence on December 11.  People First Party (PFP) 
Chairman James Soong lashed out at both Chen and Ma, 
denouncing "those Pan-Blue officials who would express 
'understanding' over the DPP's attempts to promote Taiwan 
independence." 
 
5. (C) Mayor Ma told the AIT Director on November 29 that the 
Pan-Blue leadership's attempts to respond to Chen's rhetoric 
simply played into the DPP's hands.  Despite Ma's public 
dismissal of Chen's constitution plans, the mayor asserted 
privately that he remains concerned over how the issue will 
be dealt with after the election, especially if the Pan-Green 
seizes a majority on December 11.  Ma said, however, that he 
would push for the KMT to play an active and constructive 
role on constitutional reform over the coming two years to 
ensure that the issue does not threaten Taiwan's security. 
 
Other Inflammatory Remarks 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (C) In addition to his Taiwan Advocates speech, Chen 
offered a series of other problematic formulations on the 
campaign trail over the November 27-28 weekend.  At a rally 
in Kaohsiung County, Chen stated that if the KMT refused to 
change its party symbol to something other than the national 
symbol, the Pan-Green would use its LY majority to find a new 
national symbol.  At an appearance in Hualien County, Chen 
also challenged "those who claimed that the Republic of 
China" encompassed the entire territory of the Mainland, 
Tibet, and Mongolia.  "The Republic of China isn't that big, 
and can never be that big," he told the crowd.  At the same 
appearance, he also reiterated his recent formulation that 
the "PRC is a different country." 
 
NSC Spin: Trying to Steer for the Center 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) National Security Council Secretary General Chiou 
I-jen told the Deputy Director on November 25 that the 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is trying to steer away 
from the pro-independence fringe in the final two weeks of 
the campaign in order to win over centrist voters.  He 
asserted that the DPP refused a request from Lee's Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) for Chen to attend a December 5 "name 
rectification" rally in order to distance the DPP from the 
TSU's radical agenda.  Chiou added that as a compromise, the 
 
SIPDIS 
DPP agreed to have Chen and Lee appear together at an evening 
campaign rally for Pan-Green candidates in Kaohsiung City on 
December 4.  However, he did not expect that Chen would use 
the venue to push on sensitive subjects like the 
constitution.  (Comment: Chiou did not mention at the time 
that Chen would be appearing together with Lee at the Taiwan 
Advocates conference this past weekend.  End Comment.) 
 
Comment: Same Message 
--------------------- 
 
8. (C) Chen has returned to the cycle of rhetorical 
gamesmanship that has become the hallmark of his campaign 
style.  While Chen often plays to the crowd with Taiwan-first 
themes, his willingness to push the envelope is most apparent 
when standing on stage together with Lee.  Chen's aides 
acknowledge this and say they will try to keep the president 
away from temptations during the final days of the campaign. 
Based on his track record, it is more likely that Chen will 
continue to play the Taiwan sovereignty card until voting day 
on December 11.  Afterwards, he will send a team of DPP 
spokespersons to the U.S. to try to control any damage done 
in the election. 
PAAL