US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3771

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003771 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION OVERVIEW: THE POLLSTERS WEIGH IN 
 
REF: TAIPEI 03340 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Taiwan's top polling centers are predicting a 
close election race between the Pan-Green and Pan-Blue camps 
for control of the Legislative Yuan (LY), with neither side 
currently expected to gain a majority.  While pollsters agree 
that a majority for either side is unlikely, their estimates 
span a wide spectrum.  The polling estimates range from a 
three seat margin of victory for the Pan-Green over the 
Pan-Blue, with the Pan-Green four seats shy of a controlling 
majority, to a two seat victory for the Pan-Blue.  The 
pollsters consulted by AIT cautioned that, although they 
employ rigorous polling methodologies, their polls cannot 
fully capture Taiwan's complex political landscape.  End 
Summary. 
 
Taiwan's Top Polling Centers: The Estimates 
------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) The directors of some of Taiwan's top polling centers 
say their polling data point to a close LY race with only a 
slim margin of victory for either the Pan-Green or Pan-Blue 
camp.  Almost all media and party surveys predict that 
neither side appears likely to gain a majority.  In the 2001 
legislative election the Pan-Blue camp, made up of the 
Kuomintang (KMT), the People First Party (PFP), and the New 
Party (NP), gained a majority with 115 out of 225 LY seats, 
compared to 101 seats for the Pan-Green alliance, composed of 
the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU).  Of those 225 seats, 168 are elected 
from local election districts, 8 from aborigine districts, 8 
from overseas Chinese constituencies, and 41 are at-large 
candidates (Reftel). 
 
3. (C) DPP Survey Center Director Pan Yi-shuan told AIT that 
internal party polls showed the Pan-Green leading the 
Pan-Blue 109 to 106 seats -- an eight seat gain for the 
Pan-Green and a nine seat reduction for the Pan-Blue.  Pan 
said the largest gains in the Pan-Green camp would come from 
the DPP, whose overall seats she projected would rise to 94 
from the 87.  She said the TSU is expected to make marginal 
gains, increasing its seats from 13 to 15. On the Pan-Blue 
side, Pan predicted the KMT would consolidate its position 
and pick up seats at the expense of the PFP.  Pan warned, 
however, that the DPP needs to be concerned that overly 
optimistic predictions that the Pan-Green will gain a 
majority could weaken Pan-Green-leaning voter turnout and 
spur apathetic Blues to flock to the polls to defend their 
endangered legislators. 
 
4. (C) Era Survey Research Center Director Tai Li-an 
estimates a more modest Pan-Green showing based on his polls, 
projecting a four seat gain to 105 seats versus a twelve seat 
loss to 103 for the Pan-Blue.  Tai believes the remaining 17 
seats will go to independents, many of whom lean Pan-Blue but 
could, he said, easily be swayed by selective government 
largesse to support Pan-Green initiatives.  According to Tai, 
his polls show that the weakness within the Pan-Blue camp is 
coming from PFP candidates, especially those in the southern 
and central districts of the island.  Tai remarked that PFP 
candidates are being dragged down by the declining reputation 
of their Chairman James Song and the "ethnic-Mainlander" 
brand of their party in heavy ethnic Taiwanese areas. 
 
5. (C) TVBS Polling Center Director Wang Yeh-ting is the only 
one to say the Pan-Blue are in the lead (Note: TVBS 
consistently showed the Pan-Blue ahead by large margins 
during the presidential campaign, with its March 20 exit poll 
projecting a 6 percentage point win by the Lien-Soong 
ticket).  According to Wang, the Pan-Blue will win 105 seats 
versus 103 for the Pan-Green.  Like Pan and Tai, Wang says 
his data show the DPP will make the biggest gains and take 91 
seats while the TSU will gain only 12--far below the 20-plus 
seats the TSU claims they hope to gain.  Wang also says the 
distribution of seats within the Pan-Blue alliance will shift 
heavily in favor of the KMT, which will take 71 seats, to the 
detriment of the PFP, which is projected to get 33 seats--a 
loss of 13 seats from its 2001 showing.  Wang's estimates, 
like Tai's, project 17 seats for independents with members of 
the Non-Party Solidarity Union (NSU) picking up 10 seats. 
Wang said six of the of the remaining seven independents lean 
Pan-Blue, which could help the Pan-Blue retain control over 
the LY. 
 
How They Do It: A Look at Polling Methods 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) All three polling center directors described their 
polling operations, which are generally similar in size and 
methods.  Each of the three centers employ 50 part-time 
callers and poll randomly selected households during the 
evenings between Monday and Friday.  Their polling samples 
are average 1,000 people -- the three directors agreed that 
samples of 400 to 800 people, used by most other polling 
centers on Taiwan, are too small and create large sampling 
errors.  The centers began LY district-by-district polls in 
early October and completed their first roundabout of the 
island in mid November.  Pan said the DPP's efforts will 
continue, focusing on the more hotly contested districts. 
TVBS's Wang said his center will re-poll contested areas, 
focusing on places such as Taipei city and county and 
Kaohsiung city that have candidates with "star power."  The 
three centers' polls have relatively high response rates, 
close to 80 percent for the DPP's Survey Center and around 70 
percent for ERA and TVBS.  Pan and Wang attributed the high 
numbers to the use of "warm-up" questions and "bi-lingual" 
callers who can conduct their interviews in Mandarin Chinese 
and Fujianese (minnanhua) or Hakka dialects, depending on the 
respondent's language preference. 
 
7. (C) The three centers, however, have taken different 
approaches to compiling their district polls into an overall 
estimate of the LY outcome, which perhaps accounts for a 
large measure of their variation.  Pan said the DPP Survey 
Center took its polling numbers as a basis, but also factored 
in the results of projected "vote distribution" (peipiao) 
into its calculations.  Wang and Tai said their estimates are 
more conservative, tallying up polling numbers without 
heavily factoring vote distribution, which all parties are 
likely to attempt.  Wang admitted that TVBS had yet to 
conduct polls in Penghu, Hualien, Taitung, Kinmen, and Matsu 
and was basing its projections in those areas, as well as for 
the aborigine and overseas Chinese constituencies, on "past 
experience." 
 
What They Can't Do: The Limits of Polling 
------------------------------------------ 
 
8. (C) The polling directors acknowledged that the LY 
election outcome -- even more so than the 2004 presidential 
contest -- is difficult to predict because of political 
factors and local variables that their polls cannot fully 
capture.  Tai said that voter turnout and vote distribution, 
in particular, are likely to play a determining role. 
Attempts by both camps in the final week of the election to 
distribute votes from strong to weak candidates also add to 
the unpredictability of the race.  The distribution of votes 
is determined by last-minute maneuvering and party 
calculations that are difficult to gauge in advance through 
public opinion surveys, said Tai.  The 20 to 30 percent 
non-response rate of those polled further compromises the 
accuracy of election projections. 
 
9. (C) Pan and Wang warned that some polling conducted on 
Taiwan is plagued by other "soft" factors.  In particular, 
Pan said that local politicians may manipulate polls, even 
commission their own data, for various propaganda purposes, 
such as showing they are a viable contender in their 
district.  Smaller polling centers and companies are known to 
skew their sampling to deliver results desirable to their 
paymaster, according to Wang.  Emile Sheng, an academic 
polling expert who has consulted with both TVBS and ERA, told 
AIT that he was recently threatened with a lawsuit by PFP 
incumbent Pang Chien-kuo.  Sheng said that Pang has alleged 
that Sheng has intentionally skewed polls to show Pang out of 
contention for re-election.  Sheng noted, however, that all 
media polls put Pang in exactly the same position (number 14 
in the competition for a ten-seat district) in the hotly 
contested Taipei City South district. 
 
10. (C) Wang further pointed out that his center's polls, 
like all household-based polling on Taiwan, are more likely 
to miss young, unmarried professionals, who rely exclusively 
on cellphones.  Wang said that, on the opposite side of the 
spectrum, some polling companies rely heavily on cellphone 
interviews, which skews samples against people over 60 years 
of age who, in the south, tend to be strong DPP supporters. 
Another group that tends to shy away from participating in 
polls, especially those perceived as "pro-Blue," are 
Pan-Green loyalists.  Many observers attributed the 
inaccuracy of TVBS presidential campaign polling, especially 
their March 20 exit poll, to this factor. 
 
Comment: A Clouded Crystal Ball 
------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) AIT's discussion with these polling directors 
suggests that Taiwan polls are at best imperfect soothsayers 
of the LY election outcome.  Election projections, 
nevertheless, appear consistent in pointing to a 
consolidation and expansion of the two major parties, the DPP 
and the KMT, that will come largely at the expense of their 
partners, the TSU and the PFP respectively.  The expectations 
of an overall weaker Pan-Blue position track with what AIT is 
seeing in various districts around the island and point to a 
new post-election landscape for Taiwan.  While the exact 
numbers may be impossible to predict, it appears increasingly 
likely that the Pan-Blue will lose it's LY majority and 
present the Pan-Green, if it makes significant gains, with an 
opening to woo independents and form a working majority. 
PAAL