US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3770

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003770 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: TAICHUNG COUNTY 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Spurred by Chen Shui-bian's 30,000-margin 
victory in Taichung County during the 2004 presidential 
election, the DPP expects to elect five of its six LY 
nominees there this December, up from the four seats it won 
in 2001.  The KMT nominated its four incumbents and one 
newcomer, with four likely to win seats.  PFP's sole nominee, 
incumbent Feng Ting-kuo, is expected to win reelection by 
capturing virtually all of the county's Mainlander vote. 
Colorful independent incumbent Yen Ching-piao is another 
iron-clad winner.  Whether or not the DPP can duplicate the 
success it achieved in the presidential election will depend 
on the effectiveness of its vote allocation system versus the 
ability of KMT grassroot organizations to remain a force in 
voter mobilization.  End Summary. 
 
Weathervane of Taiwan Politics 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) Eleven legislators represent Taichung County's 
population of 1.5 million in the Legislative Yuan (LY). 
During the 2004 presidential election, Chen Shui-bian 
targeted this historically Pan-Blue stronghold as a 
battleground, and by cultivating the faction leaders so 
important in Taichung politics, made significant inroads in 
the county.  Hung Chao-nan, eighth term KMT Legislator from 
Taichung City, told AIT that Chen constantly visited the 
county during the presidential campaign.  For his efforts, 
Chen won in Taichung by a margin of 30,000 plus votes, and 
the DPP now hopes to translate that victory into LY seats. 
Commenting on the significance of this locality, PFP 
Legislator and Spokesman Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiau) told AIT 
that Taichung County is a litmus test for "where the wind is 
blowing" in Taiwan party politics. 
 
3. (C) Although 22 candidates have registered to contest the 
11 seats, Taichung party officials across the political 
spectrum agreed that only 13 candidates are serious 
contenders.  Chiu Tai-san, a veteran of Taichung local 
politics before being appointed Mainland Affairs Council 
(MAC) Senior Vice Chairman, assessed that only six incumbents 
are assured of victory -- two DPP, two KMT, PFP Feng 
Ting-kuo, and independent Yen Ching-piao.  Three DPP 
nominees, three KMT nominees, and independent Yang Tien-sheng 
will battle for the remaining five seats. 
 
DPP: Two incumbents, four newcomers 
------------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) In 2001 four of the five candidates nominated by the 
DPP won LY seats.  The two DPP incumbents running for 
reelection -- Kuo Chun-ming and Chien Chao-tung -- are 
assured of victory this December.  Although the other 
incumbents are not running (Chiu Tai-san left the LY for MAC 
in May 2004, and Lin Feng-hsi plans to run for Taichung 
County magistrate in 2005), each has anointed a stand-in -- 
Tsai Chi-chan was Chiu Tai-san's chief of staff while Wu 
 
SIPDIS 
Fu-gui is Lin Feng-hsi's protege. 
 
5. (C) DPP Taichung County Chairman Sheng Kuo-jung is 
confident the DPP will not only retain its current four seats 
but also gain a fifth seat.  Despite Chiu Tai-san's concern 
that Tsai is too much of a policy wonk and has not been able 
to connect with the voters, Sheng told AIT that Tsai is the 
strongest of all the DPP newcomers.  Sheng then turned to 
what he called Wu Fu-gui's many strengths -- he is a former 
National Assembly member, his brother is an incumbent county 
councilor, and Lin Feng-hsi's base is particularly strong and 
loyal.  Sheng told AIT that a third candidate, Hsieh 
Hsin-nee, will win the break-through fifth seat for the DPP. 
He pointed out that although Hsieh is an outsider from Tainan 
she previously served as DPP Director of Social Development 
and is receiving strong endorsement and support from central 
headquarters. 
 
6. (C) Of the DPP nominees, Liu Jui-lung is the one on the 
cusp.  Sheng believes it is possible for the DPP to gain one 
but not two more seat than it did in 2001.  Sheng said that 
new DPP voters who came over from the KMT during the 
presidential election are likely to return to their old 
voting habits in an LY election.  Another problem, Sheng 
explained to AIT, is the candidate himself.  He said Liu is 
known primarily in the coastal towns, and has not 
sufficiently widened his appeal in the plain and mountain 
areas.  Sheng also remarked that Liu is a poor campaigner. 
He said that so far the party has not made any decisions 
about Liu's campaign, or any decisions about voting 
allocation (pei-piao).  When asked whether he thought the DPP 
over-nominated in Taichung County, Sheng told AIT that 
President Chen wanted to win a LY majority and urged the 
party to nominate aggressively in most counties. 
 
KMT: Holding steady 
------------------- 
 
7. (C) The KMT nominated five candidates to run in this 
year's election.  Four are incumbents.  Four-term superstar 
legislator Shyu Jong-shyong is by far the most popular 
legislator in Taichung if not in all of Taiwan.  Shyu boosted 
to AIT that he does not need to campaign to win.  The second 
most popular KMT incumbent, Yang Chiung-ying, is virtually 
unknown outside of Taichung.  However, informed observers 
consistently rank her as one of the top three performers in 
the county.  The same observers told AIT that incumbents Liu 
Chuan-chung and Chi Kuo-tung are likely to win reelection as 
well but their victories are not as secure. 
 
8. (C) Although the KMT believes it has enough supporters to 
win five seats, the tangled legacy of the 2001 election may 
render that harder than it might first appear.  In 2001, the 
KMT nominated six and won five seats.  The winner of the 
fifth KMT seat in 2001 was Yang Wen-hsin.  The KMT later 
revoked Yang's membership for repeatedly refusing to vote on 
legislation along party lines.  To complicate things further, 
Yang Wen-hsin's father, Yang Tien-sheng, is running in his 
place this year.  The family business, Everfortune (Chang-Yi) 
is reportedly in financial difficulty and Chiu Tai-san told 
AIT that the family sees winning a LY seat as vital to saving 
its future. 
 
9. (C) To vie for votes that went to Yang in 2001, the KMT 
has nominated Chiang Lien-fu, the mayor of Taiping township. 
KMT County Chairman Lai Hsin-hsiung told AIT he is optimistic 
all five nominees will prevail and outlined a strategy based 
on geographical allocation of votes.  Former DPP County 
Magistrate Liao Yang-lai agreed that the KMT has a chance to 
win five seats.  PFP Taichung County Chief Lin Yao-hsin 
thought four KMT seats were more likely.  DPP's Sheng told 
AIT that Chiang is known in the mountain areas but has had 
difficulty cultivating voters in the coastal and plain towns. 
 Sheng also pointed out that Chiang was Yang Tien-sheng's 
protege so their supporter base will overlap. 
 
KMT's Bad Reputation 
-------------------- 
 
10. (C) KMT has long relied on grassroot networks to mobilize 
supporters for rallies and other election activities. 
However, the post-March 20 street demonstrations in Taipei 
have taken a toll on the KMT LY election effort.  DPP's Sheng 
said that the KMT grassroot organizations have not been very 
active this year because they are all exhausted from the 
March mobilization.  In addition, those scenes of protesters 
attacking police and other public servants have alienated the 
conservative people from the Taichung countrysides.  KMT's 
Shyu Jong-Shyong offered a similar assessment, telling AIT 
that he is the only KMT candidate who dares to identify 
himself as KMT member. 
 
PFP: One Candidate for Mainlanders 
---------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Banking on the 150,000 ethnic Mainlanders eligible to 
vote in Taichung County, the PFP in 2001 nominated four 
candidates (three men and a woman), expecting to elect at 
least three of them.  Of the four candidates, three were 
ethnic Taiwanese while one was Mainlander.  Only Feng 
Ting-kuo -- the Mainlander nominee -- was elected in 2001. 
This year as the sole PFP nominee, he is universally expected 
to win reelection.  DPP's Sheng told AIT that Feng has a 
terrible reputation in Taichung but with access to almost the 
entire Mainlander vote, he is assured of victory. 
 
TSU: Nomination folly 
 
SIPDIS 
--------------------- 
 
12. (C) Wang Dai Chun-man, the sole TSU nominee in 2001, 
failed to win election by a mere 460 votes.  She might have 
had a good chance to win this year if the TSU had not 
nominated two candidates.  Everyone AIT interviewed agreed 
that TSU does not have enough supporters in Taichung to elect 
two candidates, and that by nominating two candidates, the 
party has jeopardized both of their chances to win.  During 
his discussion with AIT, Wang's campaign director cursed TSU 
Chairman Huang Chu-wen, calling him a brainless rotten egg 
(wan ba dan) for insisting on nominating two TSU candidates. 
A tireless campaigner, Wang told AIT that she canvasses for 
votes in traditional markets at 6:00 every morning and at 
night markets until late every evening.  Nevertheless, she 
confessed that her chances are slim. 
 
The Yen Ching-piao Lock 
----------------------- 
 
13. (C) Taichung County is represented in the legislature by 
one of the most famous gangsters in Taiwan.  Rumored to have 
been involved in racketeering and other organized crimes, Yen 
Ching-piao is equally well known as the patron and chairman 
of Chenlan Temple, a powerful Matsu temple.  He has served in 
the Taichung County Council and Taiwan Provincial Council. 
During his term as Taichung County Council Speaker, Yen was 
indicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison for murder and 
corruption.  While still in jail, Yen decided to run for 
legislator as an independent -- sending his wife and son to 
campaign on his behalf.  He won in December 2001 and was 
sworn in as a LY member in early 2002.  No one in Taiwan has 
any doubt that Yen will prevail in his reelection effort. 
KMT County Chairman Lai told AIT that Yen does not have to 
get out of bed and he will win. 
 
Hitman with a heart 
------------------- 
 
14. (C) While no one can satisfactorily explain how a known 
gangster can win election in a county known for its 
conservative traditional values, DPP's Sheng offered the 
argument that most people do not feel personally threatened 
by Yen.  Former DPP County Magistrate Liao Yang-lai explained 
that Yen has an image of being very diligent, offering 
excellent service to his community, and being filial to his 
parents. 
 
15. (C) The more interesting question is whether Yen will 
vote with the Greens or Blues in the next LY session.  In the 
past, because of his affiliation with James Soong through the 
provincial council, Yen sided with the Blues.  Yen told AIT 
that he has never voted with the Pan-Green but the DPP 
government sometimes used his "legal problems" to pressure 
him to stay home.  DPP's Sheng is confident that in the next 
session, most independent legislators will vote with the 
Pan-Green.  Sheng said that Yen voted with the Pan-Blue in 
the past because he owed James Soong but pointed out that Yen 
has repaid his debt.  MAC's Chiu made a similar point, "He 
does not care about national issues, so if we need his vote 
on a major bill, we will just build a road for him."  A 
survey of the large number of new roads in Yen's hometown 
suggests that Yen has cooperated with the DPP more than once. 
 
Comment: Change of political guards? 
------------------------------------ 
 
16. (C) With PFP Feng Ting-kuo and independent Yen Ching-paio 
definitely winning a seat each, the remaining nine seats will 
be split five-four between the DPP and the KMT.  Most 
political observers agreed that the DPP over-nominated this 
year.  Even DPP County Chairman Sheng admitted that DPP's Liu 
Jui-lung's campaign was "in danger."  The KMT's chances for 
electing five candidates may hinge on the KMT's ability to 
counter the campaign of independent Yang Tien-sheng because 
their voter base overlaps.  This LY election will also test 
the continued effectiveness of KMT grassroot organizations to 
mobilize voters and the KMT's relation with local factions 
(Septel will explore the impact of local factions and voting 
buying in Taiwan LY elections, looking particularly at 
Taichung County). 
PAAL