US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2383

UNCLAS LAGOS 002383 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, SOCI, CASC, NI 
SUBJECT: LOCAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS TO GO AHEAD DESPITE 
UNRESOLVED ISSUES 
 
REF: A. (A) LAGOS 540 
 
     B. (B) LAGOS 1210 
 
1. SUMMARY:  The government of Delta State plans to hold 
local council elections in Warri November 27 in three areas 
where elections were suspended March 2004.  The majority 
ethnic group in the area, the Ijaws, have threatened to 
boycott the elections because they believe the configuration 
of the local government areas dilutes their voting strength 
and will result in their under-representation in local 
government.  Due to the possibility of protests and violence 
surrounding the elections, Post issued a warden message 
advising Amcits in Warri to avoid unnecessary travel November 
27.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  Barring a last-minute court injunction, the government of 
Delta State will conduct local council elections November 27 
for three areas in Warri: Warri South, Warri North, and Warri 
Southwest.  The Delta State Independent Electoral Commission 
(DSIEC) will supervise the elections. The state government 
originally scheduled the elections for March 27, along with 
elections in the other areas of the state.  However, violence 
between the two major ethnic groups, the Ijaws and the 
Itsekiris, caused the government to postpone the elections to 
prevent a further escalation in violence (reftel A). 
 
3. Arguing that several issues have not yet been resolved, 
Ijaws have vowed to boycott the elections. Edwin Clark, a 
prominent Ijaw chief, told Poloff that two key issues are 
prompting the boycott: non-participation of the Ijaws in the 
last voter registration and the allegedly discriminatory 
demarcation of wards.  According to Clark, most voters remain 
unregistered in five of the ten wards in Warri, and most of 
these voters are Ijaw.  He commented that the government has 
put soldiers in Warri to maintain the fragile peace, and yet 
it threatens to disrupt the peace by holding these elections. 
Clark said the government is "looking for trouble"; the 
unwillingness of the courts and the government to address the 
problems is "driving people to action."  Clark said he could 
not predict whether violence would erupt if the elections go 
ahead. (Comment: What Clark did not say was that Ijaw leaders 
are in part responsible for the number of unregistered 
voters. During the last voter registration exercise, Ijaw 
leaders persuaded their followers to boycott that process as 
well. End comment.) 
 
4. Itsekiris also are displeased with the current ward 
demarcation and have taken the issue to court. Newspaper 
reports over the past weeks, however, indicate Itsekiri 
residents plan to participate in the elections.  Isaac 
Jemide, an Itsekiri leader, advised the Ijaws to follow the 
Itsekiri example and contest the ward demarcation in court 
instead of boycotting the elections. 
 
5. A newspaper reported that an Ijaw group, the Federated 
Niger Delta Izon Congress, warned all foreign nationals 
working on oil installations to leave Warri by noon on 
November 27 or face possible harm.  According to the report, 
the group plans to take over oil installations in the creek 
areas.  A Chevron contact told Poloff that the threat was not 
a great cause for concern because few expatriate oil workers 
remain in Warri; most have already been moved from the area 
because of the ongoing violence over the past couple years. 
 
6. COMMENT:  Warri has not yet recovered from the upsurge in 
violence in March 2003 when more than 100 people were killed 
and property worth millions of naira was destroyed.  The 
"ceasefire" of June 1, 2004, has brought a period of relative 
calm to the area (reftel B).  The disputes and threats 
surrounding the planned November 27 elections reveal that 
tensions remain high and little progress has been made to 
address underlying issues of the Warri power struggle.  END 
COMMENT 
BROWNE