US embassy cable - 04QUITO3103

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003103 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2014 
TAGS: MASS, PREL, PGOV, EC, KICC 
SUBJECT: ARTICLE 98 BACK IN HEADLINES, POST PRESSES CASE 
 
REF: QUITO 3028 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Recent public comments from high-level USG 
visitors and the Ambassador have put Article 98 back in play 
in Ecuador.  Major newspapers and radio/TV outlets have 
highlighted our efforts, as well as GoE Foreign Minister 
Patricio Zuquilanda's November 23 claim that the MFA 
continues to analyze the USG's petitions.  To re-start 
moribund Article 98 negotiations, the Embassy is crafting its 
own game plan, heavy on personal diplomacy and media 
education.  Additionally, we are revisiting the idea of "Plan 
Ecuador," a mostly PR effort to recast existing USG 
assistance efforts as political "payback" for Article 98. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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VIPs Re-Introduce USG Desires for ICC Protection 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2.  U) Reftel reports visiting Secretary of Defense Donald 
Rumsfeld's November 16 bilat with Ecuador President Lucio 
Gutierrez, in which Article 98 featured high.  New Southcom 
commander General Bantz J. Craddock raised the same slate of 
points during his November 19 calls on Ecuador's joint 
commander and service chiefs.  Seeking to further pressure 
the GoE to restart good faith talks, the Ambassador, in 
public remarks November 20, described the serious threats 
Ecuador faced from neighboring Colombia's conflict.  A flow 
of U.S. military assistance would continue to bolster 
Ecuador's defenses, but was far smaller than what Ecuador 
might have received, had the GoE signed Article 98. 
 
3.  (U) Curiosity over USG security engagement in the Andean 
region was high, owing to Secretary Rumsfeld's travel to 
Quito and President Bush's recent stopover in Colombia.  As 
such, the Ambassador's Article 98 comments made the front 
pages.  The Foreign Ministry responded swiftly and 
surprisingly.  Rather than state unequivocally that Ecuador 
was "not interested," as predecessor Nina Pacari had done, FM 
Zuquilanda claimed that Ministry experts "were studying the 
theme meticulously."  Reporters again raised Article 98 
November 25, during the Ambassador's Thanksgiving Day trip to 
the Manta Cooperative Security Location (Septel).  Mostly 
neutral before, media coverage turned negative November 26, 
with Quito daily Hoy demanding Ecuador reject the "Empire's" 
push for blanket immunities. 
 
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And Post's Working Group Brainstorms 
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4.  (C) The press and public's renewed interest in Article 98 
made us believe the time was ripe to re-engage immediately, 
rather than wait for expected December Cabinet changes and 
January turnover of Congressional leadership (Reftel).  Post 
convened its issue-specific working group November 24 and 
hashed out a near-term Article 98 action plan.  Up first is 
an Ambassador-President Gutierrez sit-down, which we hope to 
organize the week of November 29.  In his earlier meeting 
with SecDef, Gutierrez again declared support for the Article 
98 concept, but noted it was a hard sell, especially with the 
left-leaning legislature.  He would need serious quid pro quo 
to go forward.  At her upcoming meeting with the GoE 
president, the Ambassador will emphasize the futility of 
putting the cart before the horse -- it is nonsense to 
discuss "rewards" while the MFA continues to avoid 
negotiations. 
 
5.  (C) Bypassing the grandstanding and mercurial FM 
Zuquilanda, the DCM will target Vice Foreign Minister Edwin 
Johnson.  One of the MFA's few thoughtful interlocutors, 
Johnson also owes us one, as the USG supported his candidacy 
for a UN human rights-related position.  In their meeting, 
the DCM will push the need for a serious MFA Article 98 
coordinator, to replace the do-nothing we currently endure. 
 
6.  (C) Public Diplomacy too plays a role in restarting 
negotiations.  PAS, Milgroup, and POL staff soon will host a 
series of roundtables with interested journalists, hoping to 
correct Article 98 misperceptions.  Those same Embassy 
personnel are weighing a possible International Visitor (IV) 
program for Ecuadorian think-tankers and talking heads, whose 
support will be vital come ratification time (and who are 
bashing us now).  In both fora, we will raise Ecuador's 
recent assignment of troops to the UN's Haiti peacekeeping 
operations, as the contingent could, barring specific 
protections, come under the ICC's microscope. 
 
7.  (C) Longer-term, we are revisiting plans for a "Plan 
Ecuador."  In early 2004, Department of State U/S John Bolton 
heard President Gutierrez lobby for an uptick in USG security 
and social assistance, reimbursement for heavy political 
costs that signing an Article 98 agreement allegedly would 
entail.  Believing our aid package already robust but seeing 
utility in providing deliverables, we deliberated in-house 
how best to recast and repackage existing programs for 
maximum political benefit.  The MFA's continuing refusal to 
talk text led us to shelve "Plan Ecuador" plans, but we are 
prepared for a re-look should circumstances warrant. 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Just a fortnight ago, we worried that word 
of serious Article 98 negotiations could torpedo the 
teetering Lucio Gutierrez administration.  The following two 
weeks have seen the president's political fortunes soar, 
however.  After dodging impeachment proceedings November 9, 
Gutierrez and newfound Congressional allies exacted political 
revenge November 25, and the now-minority opposition is in 
retreat (Septel).  Fortified, he just might weather the 
"torment" that serious Article 98 negotiations could unleash. 
 We intend to find out.  END COMMENT. 
KENNEY