US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA2166

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 002166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPKO, CG 
SUBJECT: CONGOLESE MILITARY PREPARING CONTINGENCY PLANS TO 
COUNTER RWANDAN INVASION 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d. 
 
 1. (C)  PolCouns met November 24, and spoke telephonically 
November 25, with Air Force Commander John Numbi.  Numbi said 
November 24 that in a meeting at the Presidency it had been 
decided that the army would immediately redeploy three 
battalions of Congolese troops (about 1,500 men) to the 
DRC-Rwandan border area between South and North Kivu to 
respond, if necessary, to a Rwandan incursion.  He said that, 
although the Congolese are "tired of war, we will defend 
ourselves if necessary." 
 
2. (C) By the following afternoon Congolese military thinking 
evidently had evolved.  Numbi called PolCouns en route to a 
meeting of the Maison Militaire (effectively the commanding 
body of the military), to say that the Congolese believe 
that, thanks to the concerted diplomatic efforts underway, 
Rwanda is unlikely to invade Congo "in the next few days." 
However, he added that once the eyes of the world turn away 
from the border zone -- as they soon will, he insisted -- 
Rwanda likely will pursue its goal.  Therefore the Maison 
Militaire has been tasked to prepare a contingency plan to 
defend both Kivus, since it is "clear" to the Congolese 
military that the Rwandan objectives lie within both 
provinces.  He said that, as part of that plan, the personnel 
of the three battalions will be swapped out, so that better 
trained and (by implication) more trustworthy troops will be 
moved into the front-line positions.  (Note:  As part of the 
now months-old massive military deployment to the eastern 
Congo, Kinshasa dispatched GSSP to positions in both Kindu 
and Kisangani -- Numbi could be referring to a plan to move 
some or all of these elements to the border.  End Note.) 
Numbi insisted the Congo has no intention of attacking 
Rwanda, despite, he said, some statements indicating the high 
degree of anger and frustration sparked by this latest round 
of Rwandan aggression. 
 
3. (C)  Comment:  Numbi did not, despite repeated questions 
from PolCouns, indicate that either Congolese politicians or 
military are currently considering any new plan to actively 
address the FDLR problem.  Monuc's evaluation, based on its 
abortive joint effort with FARDC in Wulungu (septel), is that 
the Congolese military is completely incapable of dealing 
with the FDLR, largely due to its inability to logistically 
sustain operations.  This is no surprise, but leaves the onus 
on the international community, therefore, to try to devise a 
viable plan for dealing with the FDLR.  Doing so clearly is 
one fundamental element to achieving a lasting peace between 
Rwanda and the DRC, and therefore within the region as a 
whole. 
MEECE