US embassy cable - 04TEGUCIGALPA2646

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 002646 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, AND WHA/CEN 
STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, SNAR, KJUS, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN FEBRUARY: PASTOR AND 
LOBO IN NATIONALIST FIGHT; ZELAYA LEADS THE LIBERALS 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 2635 
 
     B. TEGUCIGALPA 1541 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  With the February 20, 2005, primary 
elections three months away, the race is tightening on the 
Nationalists side with President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" 
Lobo closing the gap on Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor.  On 
the Liberal side, politician Mel Zelaya is pulling away from 
the rest of the pack and looks likely to win the nomination. 
Turnout could be the key in these open primaries, the first 
ever for congressional and city council candidates.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (U) With the February 20, 2005, primary elections only 
three months away, here is a snapshot of the leading 
movements and their candidates for president and vice 
president.  (Each movement also has a slate of congressional, 
mayoral, and city council candidates.) 
 
National Party (center/right) 
----------------------------- 
 
"New Time" 
---------- 
 
3. (SBU) Miguel Pastor is the Mayor of Tegucigalpa, young and 
media savvy, and has been campaigning as an electable fresh 
face based on his success as mayor.  He represents a 
generational change in the current political leadership and 
he has been distancing himself from Ricardo Maduro's 
Administration.  VP Carlos Lopez Contreras is a former 
Foreign Minister and current Honduran representative for 
Hague border issues.  He is a VP candidate with gravitas. 
Pastor, with family connections in major media outlets, had a 
commanding lead in the polls, but Lobo has the support of 
many party insiders and has been gaining strength in recent 
polls.  The Pastor movement's San Pedro Sula Mayoral 
candidate is incumbent Mayor Oscar Kilgore, which gives him a 
strong base on the north coast. 
 
"Work and Security" 
------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is President of Congress with 
considerable experience in politics and as an 
agrobusinessman.  VP Mario Canahuati is the current Honduran 
Ambassador to the U.S., and a maquila businessman who helps 
bring support in the San Pedro Sula area.  Lobo is running as 
a law and order candidate with proven effectiveness as 
President of Congress.  He has charisma problems but is very 
well connected and favored by many party insiders.  Lobo has 
many links to the "dark side" of the National Party.  Lobo's 
Tegucigalpa mayoral candidate is President Maduro's private 
secretary Ricardo Alvarez, who holds a commanding lead in the 
 
SIPDIS 
mayoral race. 
 
"For a Better Alternative" 
-------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Gilberto "Picho" Goldstein is a congressman and 
businessman.  VP Irma Acosta de Fortin is a university rector 
and was Raphael Callejas' VP candidate the first time 
Callejas ran (and lost).  Goldstein has no chance of getting 
the Nationalist Party nomination, but has some old guard 
support in the party.  Interestingly, he has become a vocal 
supporter of the recent electoral reforms (reftels). 
 
6. (U) Also running, but garnering even less support, is 
presidential candidate Jesus Flores and VP Oscar Zuniga. 
 
Pastor Lead Slips as Lobo Gains 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Pastor, who once had a commanding lead over Lobo in 
the polls, now only has a 10 percent lead.  An unpublished 
October 30 poll that EmbOffs have seen from an independent 
and credible polling firm reads as follows: 
- Pastor   52 percent 
- Lobo     42 percent 
- Goldstein 5 percent 
 
8. (SBU) The same poll in early September had Pastor leading 
Lobo by almost 30 percent.  Pastor has lost ground among 
Nationalists, Liberals, and independents.  Many independents 
who previously said they would vote for Pastor are now in the 
undecided column.  Pastor has retained strong support in the 
18-40 years old age group, but Lobo leads among those over 40 
years old, who are more likely to vote.  Pastor has been 
urging the GOH to do a better job of registering young adults 
so they can be eligible to vote in the primary. 
 
9. (SBU) Theories abound as to why Pastor has lost ground and 
Lobo has gained.  The October 20 submission of the candidate 
lists for each movement may have led some weak Pastor 
supporters, who were left off the Pastor lists, to defect to 
Lobo.  Lobo's choice of Canahuati as VP appears to have 
helped Lobo more than Pastor's choice of Lopez Contreras has 
helped Pastor.  Pastor also recently lost a key grass-roots 
organizer and very popular local leader in the Tegucigalpa 
area, Renan Inestroza, who switched to the Lobo campaign 
after a falling-out with Pastor.  Inestroza reportedly 
thought he was promised a top slot on the congressional 
candidate list by Pastor and switched to Lobo when he didn't 
make the list.  Ironically, Inestroza is not on Lobo's 
congressional candidate list either. 
 
10. (SBU) While the campaign is not officially on, Lobo as 
President of Congress has been running a series of basic but 
effective messages articulating his position on a number of 
hot issues - crime, death penalty, gangs, jobs, gay marriage, 
etc.  Lobo has also been running a negative campaign against 
Pastor.  At the same time, Pastor has been running slick, but 
vacuous, ads, promoting himself as the electable candidate 
with leadership and a fresh approach, but not saying anything 
substantive.  Ironically, the leading Liberal candidate, Mel 
Zelaya, is running a campaign that is somewhat similar to 
Pastor's campaign, but with a lower profile.  Perhaps 
realizing Lobo's issues-based campaign appears to be working, 
Pastor's latest ad is much more substantive.  Pastor is also 
likely to criticize Lobo for breaking his promise not to run 
for president when he was chosen as President of Congress. 
 
Liberal Party (center/left) 
--------------------------- 
 
"Liberal Hope" 
-------------- 
 
11. (SBU) Manuel Zelaya Rosales, previously a congressman, is 
a politician, a farmer, and does not have a university 
degree.  VP Elvin Santos is a young businessman and the son 
of politician (his father has a questionable reputation). 
The leading Liberal Party candidate by default it seems; at 
this time Zelaya clearly has a commanding lead in the race 
for his party's nomination. 
 
"Jaime's Liberal Movement" 
-------------------------- 
 
12. (SBU) Jaime Rosenthal Oliva is a businessman, 
congressman, and all-around wheeler-dealer with a shady 
reputation.  VP Ramon Villeda Bermudez is a congressman, 
veterinarian, and a past presidential contender who never 
gained the nomination.  Villeda is the son of former 
President Ramon Villeda Morales, who restored democracy to 
Honduras in the 1950s.  A Liberal Party dinosaur, Rosenthal 
is the quintessential party insider who is unable to move up 
in the polls, despite heavy self-advertising (he runs one of 
the four major newspapers and a television channel).  He 
shows no signs of being able to topple Zelaya, and 
indications are that he plans to go negative on Zelaya to try 
to change the dynamic of the race. 
 
"New Majority" 
-------------- 
 
13. (SBU) Gabriela Nunez de Reyes is an advisor for Atlantic 
Bank, a former Minister of Finance in the Carlos Flores 
Administration, and previously worked for the IMF.  She is 
the most viable of the female presidential candidates.  VP 
Guillermo Alvarado Downing is a former Minister of 
Agriculture under the Flores Administration and an 
agrobusinessman.  Nunez is someone to watch in the future, 
but she has little chance to beat Zelaya. 
 
"Pineda's Liberal Movement" 
--------------------------- 
 
14. (SBU) Rafael Pineda Ponce is a congressman, an elder 
statesman, and is currently suffering from cancer.  VP Yansi 
Juarez is a woman and an unknown figure.  Pineda, a former 
President of Congress, has some campesino and union support. 
He is respected but has a low chance of winning the 
nomination; his days as party leader are behind him. 
 
15. (SBU) Also running, but with even less support, is 
presidential candidate Hugo Noe Pino, a former Ambassador to 
the U.S. and Minister of Finance, and VP Elsa Palou, 
Congressman Jorge Arturo Reina and VP Virginia Figueroa, Vera 
Rubi and VP Edgardo Caceres Castellanos, and Mayor of Puerto 
Cortes Marlon Lara and VP Daniel Davila Nolasco. 
 
Zelaya With Commanding Lead 
--------------------------- 
 
16. (SBU) The same unpublished October 30 poll cited 
previously reads as follows for the Liberals: 
- Zelaya      52 percent 
- Rosenthal   22 percent 
- Nunez        9 percent 
- Pineda Ponce 8 percent 
 
17. (SBU) Zelaya's lead over his Liberal rivals has 
increased, as Pineda Ponce has slipped to fourth place. 
Rosenthal, despite more advertising than Zelaya, has not 
gained any ground.  As previously noted, Zelaya's campaign is 
somewhat similar to Pastor's as it has portrayed him as the 
electable candidate, without saying anything substantive. 
However, Rosenthal has been unable thus far to force Zelaya 
into a battle, as Lobo has done with Pastor.  Barring an 
unexpected development, final results are likely to be along 
the lines shown above in the current poll.  Nunez and Lara 
are the generational transition candidates in the Liberal 
Party and are positioning themselves for the 2009 elections. 
 
Minor Parties 
------------- 
 
18. (SBU) The Democratic Unification Party (UD) candidates 
are "United People Movement" presidential candidate Juan 
Almendarez (former communist, heads small human rights NGO), 
VP Martha Isabel Sandoval, and "popular Convergence" movement 
presidential candidate Jose Maria Turcios (former communist, 
alleged to be involved in kidnapping of a bank president in 
1981), VP candidate unclear.  The UD is far to the left and 
is often an anti-U.S. party.  They have support from the 
leftist protest organization Popular Block and a few public 
sector unions.  The second UD movement may not be registered, 
in which case the UD would not participate in the primaries. 
 
19. (SBU) The Christian Democratic Party (PCD) candidate is 
Juan Ramon Martinez (op/ed writer), VP candidate Adela de 
Chavarria.  The Innovation and Unity Party (PINU) candidate 
is Carlos Sosa Coello (congressman), VP candidate Olga 
Morales de Galindolean.  The PINU and DC tickets are running 
unopposed for their parties' nominations, and neither has a 
chance to win the presidency.  The PCD leans to the right and 
PINU leans toward the left. 
 
Key Issues on Voter's Minds 
--------------------------- 
 
20. (SBU) In the October poll, Maduro's performance was rated 
as bad/very bad by 53 percent of respondents, with 40 percent 
rating it as good/very good.  This does not bode well for the 
Nationalists.  Also, corruption scandals in November have 
hurt the Nationalists as voters increasingly doubt their 
ability to tackle endemic corruption in Honduras.  The 
Nationalists and Liberals were tied at 42 percent in voter's 
party preference; Pastor (26 percent) held a slight lead over 
Zelaya (22 percent) and Lobo (20 percent) for president. 
When asked what was the most pressing problem facing 
Honduras, here is how voters answered: 
 
September 2002               August 2004 
crime          44 percent    unemployment   30 percent 
unemployment   19 percent    crime          22 percent 
cost of living 17 percent    cost of living 21 percent 
 
21. (SBU) On the surface, the switch from crime and 
unemployment as a top voter concern during the last two years 
should help the Liberals.  The Nationalists, thanks to 
Maduro, Lobo, and others, are now seen as the law and 
order/tough on crime candidates.  The Liberals have 
criticized the Maduro Administration's failure to boost 
economic growth.  However, to a certain extent, this change 
in voter attitudes may be due to voters giving the Maduro 
Administration credit in the one area they have clearly 
fought to make a difference - crime.  This credit could 
potentially help the Nationalists, particularly Pepe Lobo. 
 
22. (SBU) However, one mitigating factor in favor of the 
Liberals is that the two Nationalist candidates have been 
advertising their respective accomplishments for more than 
two years without any Liberal Party opposition advertising, 
aside from Rosenthal's self-promotion.  Once the Liberals 
roll out their campaigns and begin to frame their message on 
economic issues, the Nationalists could be vulnerable on 
these issues. 
 
23. (SBU) Turnout could be the key to who wins in these open 
primaries.  In the same October poll, only 37 percent said 
they planned to vote in the primaries, with 42 percent saying 
no, and 21 percent saying they were unsure. 
 
Pastor or Lobo vs. Zelaya 
------------------------- 
 
24. (SBU) Comment:  At this point, it appears that the 
presidential race will be Pastor or Lobo vs. Zelaya, with 
three months of hard campaigning ahead.  Will Pastor be able 
to halt Lobo's surge and rebuild some of his shrinking lead? 
Will Lobo's broken pledge not to run for President come back 
to haunt him?  Will Rosenthal be able to shake up the race 
and put Zelaya's win in jeopardy?  Who will turn out to vote 
and which primary will they vote in?  The answers to these 
questions will determine the outcome of the presidential 
primaries.  End Comment. 
Palmer