US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO1912

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001912 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT: MALDIVIAN REFORMISTS IN EXILE ASK FOR USG SUPPORT 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 1878 
 
     B. COLOMBO 1686 
     C. COLOMBO 1582 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  In a November 24 meeting with poloffs, 
representatives of the unregistered Maldivian Democratic 
Party (MDP) living in Sri Lanka expressed concern about the 
freeness and fairness of parliamentary elections scheduled 
for December 31.  In particular, they said that legal 
restrictions, including house arrest and/or the prospect of 
serious criminal charges, against the MDP's most prominent 
members in Maldives have created a climate of intimidation 
and inhibited the MDP from mounting a credible campaign. 
Absent significant MDP representation, they argued, the new 
Parliament will function as no more than a rubber stamp for 
President Gayoom, obstructing genuine reform efforts and 
ensuring Gayoom remains in office for his seventh five-year 
term.  The MDP representatives asked the U.S. to press for 
three specific actions from Gayoom before the election:  to 
allow the MDP to register as a party; to engage with MDP 
members in exile; and to drop criminal cases against the 
MDP's most prominent members.  We agree that current 
circumstances are not promising for fully free and fair 
elections and that prospects for Gayoom continuing on the 
path to reform may be fading.  End summary. 
 
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MDP:  ONLY THIRD-STRING CANDIDATES 
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2.  (C) On November 24 poloffs met with Mohamad Latheef, 
Mohamad Nasheed, Hassan Zahir and Adam Abdul Gafoor, 
representatives of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) 
living in self-imposed exile in Sri Lanka.  The delegation 
had requested the meeting to discuss concerns about the 
welfare of six MDP Members of the Special Majlis under house 
arrest and about elections for the People's Majlis scheduled 
for December 31.  They said they were particularly worried 
about the mental and physical health of former SAARC 
Secretary General Ibrahim Zaki, a heart patient who had 
 
SIPDIS 
suffered a mild stroke before his arrest in August and had 
shown clear signs of physical and mental distress when 
Ambassador and DCM met with him on two separate occasions 
during his detention (Refs B and C).  According to Zaki's 
son, the former SAARC Secretary General and career civil 
servant had signed a "statement" under duress as a condition 
of his release from the prison island of Dhoonidhoo to house 
arrest in the capital of Male but had never actually read the 
contents of the statement and thus claims not to know what he 
actually confessed to.  (Note:  As reported Ref B, when 
Ambassador met Zaki in detention on October 7, Zaki repeated 
several times in an agitated manner that he had agreed to 
sign a "statement" the following day in exchange for 
permission to see his family and go to the hospital.  When 
Ambassador asked what the statement was, Zaki replied "a 
statement of what I have done."  End note.) 
3.  (U)  Relatively minor charges (for unlawful assembly) 
have been filed against two of the twelve MPs who had been 
detained in the wake of the August 12-13 disturbances.  There 
are no charges so far against the six Special Majlis MPs 
(including Zaki, former Attorney General Mohamad Munavvar and 
businessman Ibrahim Gasim) who remain under house arrest and 
are proscribed from receiving telephone calls.  Other MPs who 
were released from detention on Dhoonidhoo are under "island 
arrest" (not permitted to leave their home island). 
4.  (C)  Even though charges have been filed against only two 
MPs so far, the other 10 MPs, especially those under house 
arrest, live with the constant fear that charges--probably 
very serious charges--may be filed against them by the 
Government of the Republic of Maldives (GORM) at any moment, 
the MDP representatives said.  As a result, none of the MPs 
under house arrest or any other "front-line" MDP activists 
have filed papers to run in the December 31 People's Majlis 
election.  The GORM pressured the MDP's likeliest and most 
popular potential candidates--almost all of whom were 
detained after the August 12-13 unrest--not to run in 
exchange for "going easy on them" in considering which 
charges to file against them, Nasheed claimed.  As a result, 
even though 30 MDP sympathizers are running in the election 
(42 seats are open), most of these candidates are the party's 
"third team," he said, who have neither the name recognition, 
popularity or financing of its most prominent membership. 
Moreover, Ibrahim Gasim, a wealthy businessman who had helped 
other young pro-reform Maldivians get their start in 
politics, is discouraging these proteges from running as 
well, Latheef said.  Without its best-known candidates (and, 
implicitly, without Gasim's bankroll), the MDP is finding it 
difficult to mount a credible campaign, the delegation 
indicated. 
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INTIMIDATION, ISLAND-STYLE 
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5.  (C) The GORM is using its well-oiled administrative 
machinery to ensure that even those MDP candidates who are 
running face an uphill struggle, Nasheed charged.  Minister 
of Atoll Administration Abdullah Hameed, who is President 
Gayoom's brother-in-law, has been telling atoll chiefs that 
their positions of leadership and Government funding for 
their atolls will be in jeopardy if MDP candidates win on 
islands under their jurisdiction, Nasheed claimed.  As a 
result, atoll chiefs are actively campaigning against the MDP 
candidates, warning islanders not to vote for them.  With 
such rampant intimidation of voters and candidates, how can 
the elections be considered free and fair, Latheef asked. 
International election observers are unlikely to find 
evidence of fraud or rigging, Nasheed added, since Gayoom 
will have already ensured the outcome of the election long 
before voting takes place.  The composition of the People's 
Majlis is particularly important to Gayoom, Latheef said, 
because the Majlis selects the lone presidential candidate. 
(Note:  Under the Maldivian system, candidates for the 
presidency nominate themselves.  The 50-member People's 
Majlis then selects one candidate--which, for the past 26 
years, has invariably been President Gayoom--and submits his 
name for a popular referendum.  No one else runs against the 
Majlis-selected candidate in the referendum. End note.)  By 
ensuring a pro-Gayoom People's Majlis, Nasheed said, Gayoom 
will effectively ensure his re-election for a seventh term. 
(Note:  It has been widely assumed that Gayoom would not seek 
re-election after his term ends in 2008.  At present, 
however, there is no legal restriction on his doing so.  End 
note.)  By hamstringing the MDP, "Gayoom has been able to 
circumvent many of his difficulties.  In many senses, he has 
won this round," Nasheed concluded. 
6.  (SBU)  On November 26 Nasheed contacted poloffs again to 
report that two MDP candidates for re-election to the 
People's Majlis, Mohamad Shihab and Hassan Afeef, were 
summoned to police headquartes in Male on November 25. 
Nasheed speculated that the police would attempt to 
intimidate Shihab and Afeef into withdrawing their 
nominations. 
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APPEAL FOR U.S. HELP 
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7.  (C) President Gayoom "takes comfort" in what he views as 
a supportive U.S. stance toward his regime, Latheef said. 
Pressure from the U.S. would do much to urge Gayoom along the 
path to reform, he suggested.  The MDP delegation asked for 
U.S. assistance in persuading Gayoom to take three specific 
steps.  First, the U.S. Embassy should ask the GORM--either 
the President's office or the Attorney General--to clarify 
publicly before elections are held whether the registration 
of political parties is permitted under Article 27 of the 
Constitution.  (Note:  While there is no law prohibiting the 
registration of political parties, there is no law that 
specifically permits it either.  Article 27 allows for 
freedom of association.  The previous Attorney General, 
Mohamad Munavvar, who is ironically now one of the MPs under 
house arrest, determined in 2001 that political party 
registration is not covered under Article 27.  Nasheed 
indicated that the current Attorney General, on the other 
hand, had once unofficially indicated to him that Article 27 
permits political parties to register.  End note.)  Second, 
the Embassy should urge President Gayoom to engage with MDP 
members in exile.  Latheef acknowledged that direct 
communication with the President seems unlikely, but 
suggested that initial contact with the GORM could be 
established via one of Gayoom close confidants, e.g., Foreign 
Minister Fathullah Jameel, Atoll Minister and Gayoom relative 
Hameed, or Trade Minister and Gayoom relative Abdullah 
Yameen.  Third, the delegation asked the Embassy to persuade 
Gayoom to drop all charges and investigations against its 
most prominent members, including the six MPs currently under 
house arrest, and allow them to campaign without restraint in 
the upcoming election. 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C) MDP-supported candidates won 30 of 42 available seats 
in Special Majlis elections six months ago--a fairly reliable 
indicator of the depth of pro-reform sentiment in this tiny 
island nation.  The GORM seems to be doing its best to 
discourage a similar outcome in the People's Majlis election. 
 Institutional arrangements for elections in Maldives clearly 
favor the status quo; the MDP's dubious legal status--a party 
that cannot register as a party--coupled with the even more 
dubious legal status of its most prominent members, who have 
been under one form of detention or the other for the past 
four months and may face sedition charges in the near 
future--clearly are hobbling efforts to mount a challenge to 
Gayoom.  Under current circumstances, the December 31 
elections seem unlikely to redistribute a deck that is so 
obviously stacked in Gayoom's favor.  The implications of all 
this for long-term political reform are discouraging.  Septel 
will offer our views on what the U.S. posture should be. 
LUNSTEAD