US embassy cable - 04NEWDELHI7494

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007494 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2014 
TAGS: PREL, ENRG, PK, IN, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: INDIA WELCOMES AZIZ, FIRST PAKISTANI PM VISIT IN 
13 YEARS 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 7395 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 7393 
 
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: India received Shaukat Aziz warmly and at 
the highest levels, on the first visit of a Pakistani PM to 
New Delhi since 1991.  The GOI went out of its way to project 
a welcoming message, because of the importance it places on 
reconciliation with Islamabad and because it sees Aziz as the 
kind of modernizing, pragmatic Pakistani politician India 
should bolster.  That the two sides were able to restore a 
positive atmosphere so soon after PM Manmohan Singh 
established clear GOI redlines on Kashmir on November 18 is 
important, and is viewed here as a Pakistani climbdown from 
the "maximalist" position that President Musharraf projected 
in his October 25 "Iftar Musings" proposal.  Speaking to the 
press after his lunch with the PM, Aziz declared that 
"progress on other issues will be made in tandem with 
(Kashmir)," implicitly validating the Indian claim that 
Islambad had put the brakes on people-to-people ties with a 
view to focusing attention on Kashmir.  The Pakistani PM 
spent more than five hours with four different Kashmiri 
separatist groups, separately, and did not succeed in 
unifying them, indicating that speculation about their 
impending reunification was premature.  Like Foreign Minister 
Natwar Singh, we expect no miracles from this visit, but it 
sets a positive stage for an intense three-week period of 
Indo-Pak engagement in December, Round Two of the Composite 
Dialogue (CD), culminating in an Indo-Pak meeting at the 
SAARC Summit in January.  End Summary. 
 
Warm Welcome; Berlin Wall Theme 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) After Shaukat Aziz went to considerable lengths in 
recent days to downplay General Musharraf's criticism of the 
GOI redlines on Kashmir that PM Manmohan Singh set out in 
Srinagar on November 18 (Ref B), official New Delhi went out 
of its way to ensure that Aziz will have a good trip to India 
on this, the first visit of a Pakistani PM to New Delhi since 
Nawaz Sharif attended Rajiv Gandhi's funeral in 1991.  The PM 
telephoned Aziz upon his arrival at the New Delhi airport to 
welcome him, commenting "who could say some 20 years ago that 
the Berlin Wall would be a thing of the past."  Singh added 
that he "hoped and prayed that we can set in motion a similar 
process in this subcontinent," and that he would "sincerely 
work to that end."  Aziz reciprocated, offering special gifts 
to each of his senior hosts. 
 
Most Except Sonia 
----------------- 
 
3.  (C) The Pakistani PM met, or planned to meet, India's 
most important politicians and officials, with the exception 
of Sonia Gandhi, who became "indisposed" after initial 
indications that she would see him, according to a 
well-informed Indian journalist.  (Comment: Sonia has 
consistently declined to meet US and all other high-level 
foreign visitors to underline that PM Singh is in charge of 
the GOI.  End Comment)  He saw ex-PM Vajpayee, Leader of the 
Opposition LK Advani (who confirmed that he would visit 
Pakistan in January), Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar 
to discuss the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, Commerce 
Minister Kamal Nath, and industrialists from FICCI and CII. 
The large size of the Pakistani delegation, which included 
six ministers representing many of the substantive areas of 
Indo-Pak discord, several Senators, and several top 
businessmen, attracted major media attention. 
 
Natwar Singh 
------------ 
 
4.  (C) The MEA spokesman characterized Aziz's November 23 
45-minute meeting with Foreign Minister Natwar Singh as 
"friendly, positive and forward looking," and indicated that 
the discussion centered around SAARC issues, inasmuch as the 
Pakistani PM was in Delhi in his capacity as outgoing SAARC 
Chairman, and the importance of showing results in Round Two 
of the CD process in December. 
 
Aziz Strikes out with the Hurriyat 
---------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) As part of Islamabad's continuing efforts to reunite 
the warring APHC factions, the Pakistani PM devoted the 
entire evening of his first day in Delhi to the separatists, 
spending more than five hours with them.  Aziz first met with 
the moderate group, then JKLF leader Yasin Malik, then JKDFP 
leader Shabir Shah, and finally pro-Pakistan hardliner SAS 
Geelani.  A 30-45 minute dinner followed, at which the 
moderate, pro-Pakistan, and pro-independence factions met 
together for the first time in more than one year.  While 
privately annoyed at the meeting and the image of Pakistani 
meddling with "India's Kashmiris," GOI officials maintained 
public silence on it. 
 
6.  (C) APHC leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who had expressed 
optimism to D/Polcouns on November 22 about the prospects of 
reunification, expressed disappointment that Islamabad had 
acceded to Geelani's demand to remain above and separate from 
the rest, and laid the blame for a lack of unity on his 
doorstep.  The Mirwaiz complained that Aziz had also not 
assured them that the Kashmiris would have an immediate role 
in the Kashmir-related aspects of the Indo-Pak dialogue, 
saying that this would have to come at a later stage.  Aziz 
also reportedly told them that the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus 
would become a reality "soon," that there would be three bus 
lines, two from the Valley and one from Jammu, and invited 
them to visit Pakistan.  None of our interlocutors believed 
another Hurriyat meeting with Aziz would take place during 
this visit, as some media had reported. 
 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad Bus 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Aziz arrived as the Indian media reported additional 
steps the GOI has taken recently to set the stage for an 
opening of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road, should the two 
sides reach agreement on modalities at the political level 
and at technical level discussions on December 7-8 in New 
Delhi.  India has been resurfacing a 12 km stretch of road 
near the LOC which has not been used for several decades, 
according to the Indian Express.  The GOI has also identified 
LOC crossing posts.  While the status of a bridge over the 
Jhelum River remains unresolved, the GOI has made 
preparations to erect a temporary bridge and to remove mines 
from the area in the event an agreement is reached.  One 
newspaper report speculated that India may not insist on 
visas for Pakistani visitors, but this contradicts what we 
heard from MEA on November 19 (Ref A). 
 
8.  (C) Speaking to the press after his lunch with the PM, 
Aziz declared that "as regards to Jammu and Kashmir, we 
believe this is an issue and we all need to discuss and 
adddress (it).  Progress on other issues will be made in 
tandem with (Kashmir)," implicitly validating the Indian 
claim that Islambad had put the brakes on people-to-people 
ties with a view to focusing attention on Kashmir. 
 
Pipeline 
-------- 
 
9.  (C) Although our industry contacts remain skeptical about 
a Pakistan gas pipeline, Aziz' meeting with Petroleum 
Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar sparked speculation about a 
breakthrough there.  Pakistani Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokar 
was forward leaning, declaring that "we see the gas pipeline 
as a major CBM, not just for India and Pakistan, but for the 
whole region including Iran."  Aiyar, however, pressed for 
broader economic rapproachement.  Meeting with journalists 
over breakfast on November 24, Aziz insisted that granting 
MFN status to India was linked to the solution of the Kashmir 
issue.  MFN status would open up the Pakistan market for 
Indian exporters, and would not be considered in isolation, 
he stated. 
Pakistan Watchers 
----------------- 
 
10.  (SBU) During a November 24 Charge-hosted lunch for 
visiting CODEL Bayh, the mood around Indo-Pak relations and 
the Aziz visit was generally upbeat, reflecting broader Delhi 
atmospherics.  However, this sense of cautious optimism was 
premised on the assumption that the Pakistani establishment 
had now abandoned the "maximalist" position reflected in 
Musharraf's October 25 "Iftar musings."  Against this 
background, the Pakistan experts in attendance counseled 
against any talk of final solutions on Kashmir.  Under 
current circumstances, they argued, the two sides need to 
focus on "process, not solutions."  Senator Bayh heard a 
general consensus that a final breakthrough on Indo-Pak 
relations will be possible only when a civilian government is 
installed in Islamabad, and on this basis advised a slow but 
steady approach. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (C) Like Natwar Singh, we also expect no miracles from 
this visit.  That the two sides were able to restore a 
positive, purposeful atmosphere so soon after PM Manmohan 
Singh established clear GOI redlines on Kashmir on November 
18 is important.  Significantly, Manmohan Singh's insistence 
that there can be no territorial changes on Kashmir was 
echoed in a November 24 op-ed piece by Prem Shankar Jha, one 
of India's most devoted advocates of Indo-Pak rapproachement. 
 As Jha argued, "Islamabad's treatment of the LOC as Delhi's 
maximum position exemplifies everything that Delhi distrusts 
most about Pakistan's way of doing business.  The only way to 
bring lasting peace is to eschew final goals and concentrate 
on the process." 
 
12.  (C) Aziz spent an unusual amount of time with the 
Hurriyat, but his attempts to unify them failed, indicating 
that speculation about impending reunification was premature, 
and that the divide between the various factions still runs 
deep.  We expect most observers to judge the Aziz visit a 
success, as it launches an intense three-week period of 
Indo-Pak engagement in December, Round Two of the Composite 
Dialogue (CD), followed by another Indo-Pak meeting at the 
January SAARC Summit.  Septel will report CODEL Bayh meetings 
wiht senior GOI officials. 
BLAKE