US embassy cable - 04ACCRA2307

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ACCRA 002307 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2014 
TAGS: GH, PGOV, PHUM 
SUBJECT: GHANA'S 2004 ELECTION: THE VOLATILE NORTHERN REGION 
 
 
Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e. 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  The Northern Region of Ghana has a long 
history of conflict revolving primarily around ethnic, 
chieftaincy, and land disputes.  In this pre-election period, 
intense party rivalries, tensions between claimants to the 
Dagomba tribal throne, and an apparent abundance of arms 
further poison the atmosphere, especially in Tamale and Yendi 
District.  Incidents of violence can flare up at any time 
over the most trivial of issues. Nonetheless, there are some 
positive signs, and officials and civil society activists 
have begun peace-building efforts.  The Electoral Commission 
appears to be effective and well-regarded.  Regional 
authorities are bolstering security for the election and 
there has been no election-related violence in the north in 
the past month.  If security is adequately tight and the 
parties act responsibly, the Northern Region has a good 
chance of having peaceful elections.  The National Democratic 
Convention (NDC) is expected to do well in the northern 
region, especially in Tamale, in part because many perceive 
the rival NPP as ineffective in investigating, and possibly 
complicit in, the 2002 murder of the Ya Na (Andani chief) and 
40 supporters.  In the coming weeks before December 7, we 
will closely monitor the Northern Region, especially the 
Tamale Municipal Assembly and Yendi District.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U)  In a November 8-10 visit to Tamale and Yendi in 
Ghana's Northern region, PolChief and Pol FSN met with 
officials, civil society members, and party representatives 
to assess the atmosphere in Ghana's most volatile region 
prior to the December 7 presidential and parliamentary 
elections. 
 
--------------- 
A Fragile Peace 
--------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Northern region has been peaceful since October, 
2004 and was quiet during PolChief's visit.  A two-year state 
of emergency in the region was lifted in August, 2004. 
However, all of our interlocutors described the current 
situation in Tamale Municipal Assembly and Yendi District as 
highly volatile, capable of sparking into violence at any 
time with little provocation.  (Note: The rest of the region 
is not particularly volatile. End note.)  Northern Regional 
Police Commander Ephraim Brakatua opined that the "fragile 
peace" in Tamale and Yendi could break down any moment, 
highlighting chieftaincy and party tensions. He largely 
attributed the prevailing peace to a government decision to 
ban public political rallies, following the October death of 
a 14-year-old boy in a shooting in Tamale (see below).  The 
District Chief Executive of Yendi and the Director of the 
Northern region Electoral Commission are concerned about 
clashes around (especially on) election day, but were 
confident that security measures would be adequate to prevent 
problems. 
 
-------------------- 
The Roots of Tension 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Our contacts highlighted the following main factors 
contributing to the current state of pre-election tension in 
Tamale and Yendi: 
 
A Long History of Conflict:  The Northern region has a 
centuries-old, complex history of ethnic conflict, mixing 
historical grievances with poverty, and disputes over 
chieftaincy and land.  In the 18th and 19th centuries, the 
Dagomba and other tribes with chiefs enslaved and extorted 
the more numerous Konkomba and other chiefless tribes in the 
north.  British colonial rulers favored and used the Dagombas 
to undermine the chiefless tribes.  After Independence, 
Ghanaian leaders continued to support chiefly groups in their 
land and other claims over leaderless groups, further 
exacerbating ethnic friction in the north.  Since 1980 there 
have been 17 ethnic-based conflicts in the Northern region, 
including the 1994 "Guinea Fowl War" between the chiefly 
Dagombas/Nanumbas/Gonjas tribes and the Konkombas, which left 
an estimated 20,000 dead. 
 
The Murder of the Ya Na:  The tensions have taken a new 
dimension in recent years, with intra-Dagomba conflict 
between Abudu and Andani "gates" (descendant lines), 
following the 2002 murder of the Andani gate supreme chief, 
the Ya Na, and 40 others, in Yendi.  The brutality of this 
killing (the Ya Na was dismembered), failure to arrest anyone 
in this case and broad suspicions (although no reported 
evidence) of government complicity make this unresolved case 
immensely polarizing in the Northern region.  The regional 
Chairman of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) admitted 
that this one issue made the NPP campaign in Northern region 
difficult. 
 
Party Rivalries:  All parties seek to manipulate ethnic 
tensions for political gain.  It was clear in meetings with 
NPP, National Democratic Congress (NDC), and Convention 
People's Party (CPP) leaders in Tamale and Yendi that they 
intensely dislike and distrust each other.  Abudus side with 
the NPP (Ghana's Vice President, with the NPP, is Abudu); 
Andanis clearly side with the NDC (NDC vice presidential 
candidate Mumuni is Andani).  The parties clashed in Tamale 
in April.  In Yendi on October 2, verbal taunting between NPP 
and NDC supporters led to the destruction of several stores. 
 
Distrust of Government Authority:  The NDC is convinced the 
police are biased toward the NPP and are being directed from 
Accra to look the other way on cases involving NPP 
supporters.  The NDC is outraged by the Minister of 
Interior's recent statement that, if conditions are too tense 
for elections in the northern region, "Ghana can move on 
without Dagbon." The NPP Chairman told us bluntly "the 
security forces are not doing a good job", claiming they 
detain many innocent people and fail to stop incidents of 
violence.  Perceptions of impunity in the Ya Na killing 
(including alleged complicity by the Yendi District Chief 
Executive), and the government's imposed ban on party rallies 
have also undermined faith in government authorities and 
exacerbated insecurity in the region.  Both the NDC and NPP 
see Tamale as tense and unsafe, and agree that the rule of 
law had broken down in parts of the city.  The Police 
Commander of Yendi confided that, because he had made enemies 
in Accra, he felt he was sent to Yendi to get shot. 
 
Abundant Arms:  Most of our contacts agreed the Northern 
region is awash in guns.  Many are home-made guns and small 
arms, although there are also reportedly some automatic 
weapons.  When asked about this, police in the region said 
they have heard about large arms staches but have so far been 
unable to find many weapons.  (Police Commander said he had 
uncovered only 18 illegal weapons since September).  The 
availability of arms has contributed to recent tensions.  On 
September 16, a business dispute at the Tamale abattoir led 
to a gun fight between butchers, with three injuries.  On 
October 9, a 14-year old boy, who was wearing an NDC campaign 
cap (and returning from an NDC rally), was killed by a bullet 
reportedly fired by a guard at the house of an NPP activist. 
(According to our sources, the NPP activist was a builder 
whose house had been torched and vandalized in the past.  All 
of our contacts believed the boy was hit by a stray bullet 
from guards seeking to protect the building, probably without 
a political motive).  The police found weapons in the house, 
including an AK-47.  Both the NDC and NPP admitted to us that 
they had groups of armed youths standing by to "defend" their 
party interests. 
 
Lifting the Ban on Rallies, Phone-Ins:  On November 12, the 
Northern Region Security Council lifted a ban on the 
transmission by Tamale radio stations of political 
discussions and phone-in programs.  The ban was imposed as a 
security precaution following the October killing of the 
14-year-old.  On November 17, the Council also lifted its ban 
on outdoor political activities, imposed for the same reason. 
 According to press accounts, the parties pledged to keep the 
peace, while the Council prohibited firearms at political 
rallies and limited rallies to no later than 5 pm.  It is not 
clear whether the Council's decision to lift the bans will 
improve the security environment.  While many in civil 
society opposed the bans because they were undemocratic and 
told us they were urging them to be lifted, officials and 
party activists were very cautious about a possible lifting 
fo the ban on public rallies.  The Police Commander said the 
ban on rallies had helped keep the peace and was unsure 
whether lifting the ban would lead to new flare-ups.  Several 
contacts thought there was no need to lift the ban because 
rallies were ineffective in northern region, given the 
polarized tribal nature of voting.  NDC contacts believe the 
NPP wants to lift the ban to enable Vice President Mahama to 
hold public rallies in northern region (NDC presidential 
candidate John Atta Mills was unable to do so in a recent 
visit to the area because of the ban).  Both the NDC and NPP 
insisted that the ban was imposed on them by the Council but 
that, at this point, they would oppose lifting the ban for 
security reasons. 
 
Some Positive Developments 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  Against this backdrop of tension are some more 
positive signs. 
 
Peace-building Efforts:  The police, government and civil 
society are working to encourage peace among the region's 
rivaling communities.  The Bishop of Yendi and NGO leaders 
are talking peace in meetings with Abudu and Andani youth and 
women.  The District Commissioner and Police Commander of 
Yendi meets with youth groups, Muslim leaders, and the 
political parties to encourage community harmony.  The Police 
Commander noted a UNDP-supported peace workshop in which 
youths, chiefs, and political and religious leaders pledged 
to resolve conflicts peacefully.  The government formed a 
Northern Region Peace Advisory Council which, with UNDP 
support, is working to bring different stakeholders together. 
 Youth groups in Tamale reportedly want to hold a peace rally 
in the coming weeks. 
 
Expectations of Free, Fair Election:  All of our contacts, 
including the rival parties, were convinced that the upcoming 
election will be free and fair in Northern region, and gave 
high marks to the region's Electoral Commission (EC).   The 
regional EC Director told PolChief he had put in place all 
possible measures for free and fair elections (although some 
may try to cheat, he admitted) and the EC had "done 
everything possible" to register voters.  He noted that 
around 95 percent of voters in the region had registered and 
that he hoped the EC would allow use of party poll books as a 
backup to the register on election day (all the parties told 
us they would support this as a means to ensure maximum 
possible enfranchisement). 
 
Strong Security Presence:  While recognizing that violence 
could spark at any time, most contacts on the trip were 
optimistic the election would be peaceful if there is a 
robust security presence in Tamale and Yendi.  There has been 
no election-related violence in the past month, even after 
the decision to lift the ban on political rallies.  The 
police also reassured us that election observers would be 
safe in the region.  The regional Police Commander has a 
force of 648 policemen, augmented by 200 police on rotation 
from other regions of the country, and staff from the 
Customs, Prison and Fire services.  He hopes for 300 more 
police reinforcements for the election.  The District Chief 
Executive of Yendi told us he has one military company on 
hand (the military in the region remain in their barracks on 
election day unless needed for a security incident) and is 
also seeking police reinforcements.  Both areas will deploy 
roving patrols of armed police. 
 
NDC Likely to Do Well 
--------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  In the 2000 election, the NDC won 19 of 24 
parliamentary seats (the NPP won 3, and the PNC party won 2 
constituencies).  In a 2001 by-election, the NPP gained an 
additional two seats.  We expect the NDC to do at least as 
well in Northern Region this election.  This year, the NDC 
will benefit from discontent with the NPP over the Ya Na's 
murder, and for the first time, the NDC running mate is from 
the north.  The NDC is expected to do well in Tamale, while 
the NPP should do well in Yendi.  The NPP told us it hopes to 
win 13-14 out of 26 total seats (there are two new 
constituencies in the region), pointing to its development 
performance and the advantages of incumbency.  Nonetheless, 
they concede that because of the Ya Na murder, many CPP and 
PNC supporters will vote NDC.  The NDC believes it will win 
20 seats. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C)  On the surface, Tamale and Yendi feel like poor, 
sleepy towns. They are well-traveled by Embassy officers. 
The Ambassador had a successful visit to Tamale in September, 
launching a new "American Corner" library/computer center. 
PAS recently successfully programmed a basketball team in 
Tamale, USAID has been traveling to Tamale for election 
training, and the Peace Corps has 18 volunteers in Northern 
Region and a sub-office in Tamale -- all of which have been 
operating without incident.  A number of international NGOs 
operate in Tamale, given the greater poverty levels in the 
north. 
 
8.  (C)  If the security presence is strong and the political 
parties exercise restraint, the elections will probably go 
off in Northern region without violence.  There was no 
violence in the region during the 2000 election.  However, 
below the surface, there is  significant anxiety in the north 
in this pre-election period.  The parties talk in 
surprisingly dramatic fashion about possible violence.  For 
example, the regional NPP Chairman mentioned rumors that 
Andanis would seek to "slaughter" NPP activists on the eve of 
the election.  There is a great deal at stake for Abudus and 
Andanis in particular, especially given the Abudu/Andani 
divide of the NPP and NDC vice presidential candidates. 
Observers will be watching for several possible tripwires in 
the coming two weeks:  will the lifting of the ban on public 
rallies lead to violence?  Will Ghana's Vice President or 
President visit the Northern region, as some expect?  Will 
Andanis move to bury the Ya Na before the election, which 
some told us is possible?  These could all further poison the 
atmosphere before the election.  It does not take much to 
trigger violence in Tamale and Yendi and we will watch 
developments in the whole Northern Region closely during this 
potentially volatile election period. 
 
YATES# 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
YATES