US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3740

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003740 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIWAN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT EU ARMS EMBARGO 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal; Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary. Taiwan officials say that there is little 
they can do to prevent the eventual lifting of the EU arms 
embargo against the PRC.  Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) 
officials are confident that the embargo will not be lifted 
this year, but they expect Beijing to offer some sort of 
concessions on human rights that will give EU states the 
cover they need to remove the ban by the end of 2005.  Taipei 
maintains that Beijing is using its economic leverage to sway 
EU members and has offered substantial economic carrots to 
France and Germany in exchange for leading the charge.  MOFA 
officials assert that another major reason France and Germany 
want to lift the embargo is to counter U.S. global power. 
Taipei has focused its lobbying efforts with human rights 
organizations and the Vatican.  However, MOFA officials admit 
that Taiwan does not have much leverage to counter Beijing 
and is relying on U.S. and Japanese opposition to slow down 
the EU decision.  End summary. 
 
No Consensus...Yet 
------------------ 
 
2. (C) MOFA officials believe that the EU arms embargo will 
not be lifted this year because member states are too far 
from a consensus on the matter.  MOFA Deputy Director General 
(DDG) for European Affairs Hsieh Chun-teh told AIT that he is 
hearing that the Nordic countries and many of the 
Central-Eastern European members are opposed to a quick 
lifting of the embargo in light of the PRC's lack of progress 
on human rights, the potential impact of arms sales on 
regional stability, and opposition from key EU allies such as 
the U.S. and Japan.  However, Hsieh told AIT he is not 
optimistic that a decision could be delayed past next year 
because of Beijing's increasing economic power and the 
growing influence of Germany and France inside the EU.  Hsieh 
also stated that at the upcoming EU-PRC summit in December, 
Beijing will likely lobby key fence-sitters with promises of 
economic incentives.  Hsieh told AIT that the summit will be 
important because it will reveal more clearly how the various 
member states come down on the issue. 
 
France and Germany Leading the Charge 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Taiwan officials assert that Beijing has adeptly 
convinced Germany and France to take the lead in convincing 
other EU member states to lift the embargo.  Vice Foreign 
Minister Michael Kau told AIT that he believes French 
President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard 
Schroeder were personally leading the efforts for economic 
and geo-political reasons.  He said the main goal behind 
France and Germany's efforts is to counter-balance U.S. 
political and economic power.  MOFA DDG Hsieh separately 
noted that the commercial success of Chirac's most recent 
visit to Beijing was a result of Chirac's efforts on the arms 
embargo issue.  Hsieh added that in December, Schroeder is 
scheduled to visit Beijing and will likely receive similar 
rewards for his work. 
 
4. (C) Lai I-Chung, the Director of Foreign Policy Studies at 
the Taiwan Think Thank, told AIT that most of the public in 
France and Germany is against lifting the embargo.  Lai said 
that his military contacts in France have told him that most 
mid-level French defense officials do not support lifting the 
embargo, but have been ordered to get into line behind 
Chirac's policy.  Lai added that his contacts believe that 
Chirac sees lifting the embargo as a step toward creating a 
multi-polar world, because it would increase tensions between 
Beijing and Washington, allowing France to consolidate power 
and influence in Europe.  As for Germany, Lai asserted that 
Schroeder wants Germany to be more integrated into the EU and 
sees this as an important step.  Lai noted that the German 
Bundestag recently passed a non-binding resolution condemning 
the government's decision to support the lifting of the ban. 
Lai commented that the government's decision to proceed 
anyway highlights Schroeder's determination on this issue. 
UK Sitting on the Fence 
----------------------- 
 
5. (C) MOFA assesses that the UK is playing the middle 
ground, but will probably eventually support lifting the 
embargo.  Hsieh remarked that the UK is "a clever country" 
and is still hedging its bets on supporting or opposing the 
lifting of the embargo.  Hsieh said that although London is 
genuinely concerned about China's human rights record, the UK 
government does not want to anger Beijing and has thus far 
remained silent on this issue.  Hsieh lamented that this 
leads him to believe that the UK will eventually support 
lifting the ban.  Hsieh maintained that London will likely 
seek certain conditions before the embargo is lifted such as 
limiting the scope of what kind of weapons can be sold to the 
PRC.  Taiwan Think Tank's Lai separately told AIT that the 
UK's standing has been hurt in the EU by its association with 
the U.S.  He asked rhetorically why should it expend more 
capital by agreeing with the U.S. on this issue - especially 
since the embargo will eventually be lifted. 
 
Strategy, What Strategy? 
------------------------ 
 
6. (C) Taipei has remained largely on the sidelines in the 
diplomatic battle over the embargo.  When asked about MOFA's 
plan of action on the issue, MOFA DDG Hsieh told AIT that 
Taipei's strategy is to cooperate with Japan and the U.S.  He 
added that Taiwan is using a variety of channels to express 
opposition such as working with human rights organizations 
and the Vatican, but Hsieh admitted that Taiwan has little 
leverage in Europe compared to Beijing.  Hsieh suggested that 
the USG should focus on Central and Eastern Europe because 
they are more inclined to support the U.S. and generally 
don't like being pushed around by Germany and France. 
However, he admitted that Taipei has not actively lobbied 
Eastern European capitals.  Separately, Lai told AIT he was 
doubtful that MOFA actually had a viable diplomatic strategy. 
 He said that Taipei should shift its diplomatic focus to 
Eastern Europe because these nations share many common values 
and experiences with Taiwan. 
 
Tactical Barriers, Strategic Clarity 
------------------------------------ 
 
7. (C) While MOFA officials admit that more could be done to 
delay the EU decision, they are clearly resigned to the final 
outcome.  MOFA's Hsieh predicted that the issue will be 
finally resolved through a quid pro quo that would have the 
EU overturn the embargo in exchange for a Beijing concession 
on human rights.  DDG Hsieh and his staff told AIT that 
"Beijing will give something to its EU friends" to help 
assuage their domestic constituencies.  Hsieh said he is 
pessimistic because lifting the embargo appears to make 
strategic sense on both sides.  Beijing wants to portray 
lifting the ban as a major gauge of the quality of EU-PRC 
relations, he remarked, while the EU sees the issue as a 
means to secure its economic relationship with China.  To a 
certain extent, Hsieh assessed, both Beijing and leading EU 
capitals also see some benefit in using the issue to 
undermine Washington's influence in Asia.  As to whether EU 
sourced weapons might eventually be used against U.S. forces, 
Vice Foreign Minister Kau told AIT that any change in the 
PRC's military ability would be devastating for Taiwan.  Kau 
added that it is very important that the cross-strait 
military balance be maintained and he encouraged the U.S. to 
emphasize this point to Europe. 
 
Comment: Taipei's Fatalistic Diplomatic Strategy 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
8. (C) There is little doubt Taiwan is hoping the U.S. and 
Japan can keep the arms embargo from being lifted for as long 
as possible.  However, it is apparent that MOFA officials 
realize that their influence is limited in the face of 
Beijing's economic power and have concluded that there is 
little they can do to change the situation.  As in many other 
areas of the world, Taipei finds itself on the defensive in 
Europe without any realistic plan for holding its ground.  It 
would seem logical for Taipei to seek allies among the new 
democracies in Eastern Europe rather than devoting its 
limited resources lobbying parliaments and human rights 
organizations in the west.  Once again, it appears that 
Taipei is simply cursing its fate and hoping that Washington 
can perform a miracle. 
PAAL