US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2353

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002353 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ANAMBRA CONTINUES TO ROIL 
 
REF: A. LAGOS 2279 
 
     B. LAGOS 2288 
     C. LAGOS 2290 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  As a cavalcade of Nigerian dignitaries 
gathered in Anambra for the funeral of Chief Asika -- the 
former administrator following the Biafran war -- the crisis 
in the state continued to roil.  Anambra Governor Ngige made 
cameo appearances in the state during the past several days 
before returning to Abuja Sunday night to continue 
discussions with nemesis Chris Uba this week (refs a and b). 
Ngige told Polchief that although he should not have to 
negotiate with an "illiterate thug" he was prepared to 
compromise for the sake of peace; some issues, however, were 
deal-breakers. 
 
2.  (C) Summary Cont'd:  Ngige implored the USG to convince 
President Obasanjo to stop backing Uba, or at the very least, 
to fully restore his security detail.  Although support for 
Ngige is not very strong because most Anambrans realize he 
came to office on the wings of a fraudulent election, they 
are even more repulsed by Uba's "gangsterism."  A neighboring 
Southeast Deputy Governor told Polchief that only Obasanjo 
could end to the crisis.  The question is will he?   End 
Summary. 
 
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Ngige: Yes to Compromise, but My Wife is Non-Negotiable 
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3.  (C)  Polchief traveled to Onitsha, Anambra to attend to 
funeral of Chief Asika, former administrator of the region 
following the Biafran war.  Luminaries from throughout the 
country were present including former head of state Gowon. 
Anambra State Governor Ngige was conspicuously absent for 
most of the ceremony, arriving from Abuja only after most 
dignitaries had departed.  Polchief later met with Ngige in 
his capital Awka  On the way, we stopped to see one of the 
state-owned buildings that had been burned the previous week 
by the armed bands purportedly suborned by Chris Uba (ref a). 
 
4.  (C)  Asked how the Abuja talks with Chris Uba were 
progressing, Ngige alternated between outrage and pragmatism. 
 Ngige said that he should not have to face Uba at all.  Uba 
is a private person and an illiterate thug to boot. 
President Obasanjo is on record saying he wants to end 
corrupt practices in Nigeria; he should start with Chris Uba, 
Ngige argued. 
 
5.  (C)  However, Ngige said he would "sacrifice" for the 
sake of peace.  Ngige admitted that Uba "helped" him win the 
elections but said the assistance rendered did not tally with 
Uba's outrageous compensation claims.  Specifically, Ngige 
said he was prepared to concede to Uba's faction the state 
PDP chairmanship and six commissioner slots.  He was also 
prepared to negotiate with Uba the party list for the 
scheduled December 18 local level elections -- though with 
the burning of the State Independent Electoral Commission, 
Ngige now thought this date no longer realistic.  Finally, 
Ngige intimated he would be willing to make a "reasonable" 
monthly payment to Uba. 
 
6.  (C)  Ngige said that there were some issues, most notably 
the position of deputy governor, which were non-negotiable. 
Ngige said, "Uba is greedy.  I am prepared to compromise but 
if someone asks you to negotiate over your wife, then you get 
up from the table."  (Note:  The Uba/Ngige talks being held 
under the aegis of the Presidential Peace Committee 
established last week were scheduled to resume the evening of 
Sunday, November 21.  However, they were postponed by 
Committee Chair, Ebonyi Governor Egwu to the evening of 
Monday, November 22.  End Note.) 
 
7.  (C)  Ngige implored the USG to "talk to" Obasanjo.  Local 
allies could not help, he insisted.  Ideally, the president 
would jettison Uba, but Ngige acknowledged this was unlikely. 
Asked to speculate why the President had failed to restrain 
Uba given the national embarrassment Anambra has become, 
Ngige said Andy Uba, the President's special adviser and 
elder brother to Chris, wanted to be Anambra governor.  If 
Anambra became ungovernable and the president had to declare 
a state of emergency, this would open the door for Andy, 
Ngige proffered. 
 
8.  (C) Ngige asked that we pressure Obasanjo to fully 
restore his security detail and that of the State House 
Assembly members. (Note:  The Speaker of the House and 
numerous other high-ranking state officials remain in hiding. 
 reftels.  End Note.)  Ngige claimed to have only four 
policemen dedicated to him.  This level of support, Ngige 
said, was insufficient to safeguard against attack. 
Moreover, he argued, it sent the "wrong signal" to Uba's 
faction.  (Comment:  The national newspapers have been 
chocked full of allegations from Ngige's camp that Uba has a 
hit-list and Ngige is at the top of it.  These stories, which 
Ngige also relayed to polchief, contain a fair amount of 
hyperbole.  For example, Uba and by extension the president 
are accused of creating Sudan-style "janjaweed" in Anambra. 
While the language is clearly sensationalist, the alleged 
threats against Ngige cannot be dismissed given the history 
between the two men.  End Comment). 
 
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Ordinary Anambrans Don't Exactly Rally 
to Ngige, But Support Him Over Uba 
-------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) As armed bands were marauding through Anambra burning 
state buildings, including the governor's residence, most 
Anambrans kept their heads low.  Ngige claimed this was 
because he issued instructions that people not retaliate so 
as not to give Obasanjo pretext for declaring a state of 
emergency.  However, our contacts said the lack of a public 
protest was the offspring of common sense.  Most people did 
not want to get caught in the mayhem.  In addition, there was 
a sense that this was not their fight.  Ohaneze Ndigbo, the 
largest pan-Igbo political/social group, has issued a 
statement condemning the arsons, but stopping short of fully 
endorsing Ngige.  A traditional chief told polchief that an 
Igbo council of elders plans to meet soon and it too will 
issue a statement, along the same lines.  The chief said that 
while some Anambrans continue to have issues with the 
fraudulent way in which Ngige came to power, this was not the 
way to remove him. 
 
10.  (C) Many contacts said they hoped the on-going All 
Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) court case would decide the 
governorship definitively in favor of APGA candidate Peter 
Obi.  In the meantime, however, Ngige was the recognized 
governor and he should not be removed by Uba's "gangsterism." 
Some contacts noted that they had been impressed with Ngige's 
governance, saying it was as if Ngige were out to prove a 
point. 
 
(Comment:  APGA is widely believed to have won the 2003 
elections (ref c).  Ngige and other state officials appeared 
unconcerned by Obi's court case, however.  The State 
Secretary General told polchief that the case would drag on 
 
SIPDIS 
until at least 2007, since Ngige's lawyers intended to call 
over 400 witnesses. End Comment.) 
 
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Enugu Deputy Governor: Only Obasanjo Can End Crisis 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
11.  (C)  Enugu State Deputy Governor Chief Itanyi told 
polchief that most of the southeast governors supported Ngige 
but were vocally reticent for fear of angering Obasanjo. 
Personally, Itanyi felt that the southeast governors should 
stand firm against Uba, since his shenanigans in Anambra 
could potentially disrupt the entire subregion if commerce is 
disrupted and Anambrans are forced to seek refuge from the 
violence in neighboring states.  However, influential 
political leaders have been watching the Anambra crisis 
unfold from the sidelines, Itanyi said.  Despite seeing Ngige 
as the lesser of two evils in his battle with Uba, most feel 
this is one dispute from which they should steer clear. 
Itanyi dismissed Ebonyi Governor Egwu's prospects of 
brokering a lasting peace between Ngige and Uba.  A deal 
mediated by Egwu would be ephemeral, Egwu suggested.  Egwu 
said only President Obasanjo could end the crisis -- the 
question is does he want to? 
 
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Comment 
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12. (C) The irony of having stolen the elections and then 
insisting that the USG help maintain that post in the name of 
"democracy" appears to be lost on Ngige.  That said, Uba's 
violent, strong-arm tactics may be even more unconscionable. 
Obasanjo could do himself, Anambra, and Nigeria a big favor 
if he were to ensure that the court case examining the 2003 
elections in Anambra is fair and transparent.  This could be 
the best vindication of democracy in troubled Anambra.  Short 
of this, most Anambrans hope that ultimately Obasanjo will 
intervene to rein in Uba and restore a semblance of order in 
Anambra.  However, from our vantage point in Lagos, it does 
not appear that Obasanjo will step into the morass unless his 
own fortunes become jeopardized or he is prodded to take 
action. 
BROWNE