US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1520

C O N F I D E N T I A L MAPUTO 001520 
 
SIPDIS 
DEPT FOR AF/S - HERB TREGER 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2014 
TAGS: PHUM, PREL, PGOV, MZ, ZI, Elections 04 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE - FM SIMAO ON MUGABE AND ZIMBABWE'S 
2005 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: STATE 242995 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Foreign Minister Simao told the Ambassador 
that he believes the Zimbabwean opposition party Movement for 
Democratic Change (MDC) will participate in the March 
parliamentary elections. However, the MDC is growing weaker, 
several factions have emerged and some are questioning Morgan 
Tsvangirai's leadership. He disagreed that Zimbabwe remains 
 
SIPDIS 
stagnant in economic crisis; instead, "things are getting 
better." In any case, peace and stability are more important 
than democracy at this time for Zimbabwe -- a theme he 
repeated several times during the meeting. End summary. 
 
2. (C) On November 18 the Ambassador delivered reftel 
demarche on March 2005 parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe to 
Foreign Minister Simao. (Note: A request to meet with 
President Chissano on this topic is pending. end note.) The 
Ambassador outlined for Simao our view of Zimbabwe's 
difficult circumstances, including reduced trade with the 
region and the consequent negative impact on the Beira 
corridor and Mozambique's economy as a whole. She stressed 
that upcoming parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe, should 
they follow SADC guidelines, would moderate the country's 
political climate, improve stability, and thereby return the 
country to a path of prosperity. Mozambique has an important 
role to play in encouraging Zimbabwe's leadership to make the 
March elections free and fair, she told Simao. 
 
3. (C) FM Simao responded by characterizing the USG view of 
Zimbabwe as "highly pessimistic." Instead, "things are 
getting better," he insisted. There has not been much 
violence lately. Inflation, which used to run as high as 600 
percent per year, is now down to 200 percent. Food shortages 
have been overcome and food production has begun to rebound. 
As evidence, he pointed out that the Zimbabwean government 
not long ago told the World Food Program (WFP) to cease food 
deliveries. (Comment: In fact, we understand that in the 
last several days the Zimbabwean has asked the WFP for more 
food aid. End comment.) The Zimbabweans are paying for 
electricity deliveries from Cahora Bassa dam in a timely, 
regular manner. 
 
4. (C) He told the Ambassador that discussions between the 
MDC and ZANU-PF have broken down in the past several months 
because dissension has fractured the MDC and there is no 
longer anyone with whom the government can negotiate who 
represents the party as a whole. According to Simao, the MDC 
has splintered into three groups: trade unions, farmers (who 
now realize that there can be no going back on land seizures) 
and intellectuals. Talks have been stymied because these 
three "cannot agree on a common platform." He said that he 
recently spoke with the Zimbabwean Minister of Justice, who 
told him that the government decided there was no value to 
continuing talks with MDC negotiators who do not represent 
the party. Describing Tsivangirai as an articulate leader 
with clear ideas, nevertheless he has heard that some of 
those around Tsivangirai are now questioning his authority. 
 
5. (C) Still, Simao believes that the MDC will not boycott 
the March parliamentary elections. Tsivangirai assured 
several others in the Mozambican government earlier that the 
MDC would take part, he reported. However, the MDC would no 
longer contest by-elections because of recent repeated 
losses. The parliamentary elections will by no means be 
perfect, Simao repeated several times, but in his view they 
will be much better than the last ones. SADC will send 
observers. 
 
6. (C) Throughout the hour-long meeting Simao returned again 
and again to stress that the Zimbabwe government must not be 
"pushed" to improve its behavior and, more generally, that 
peace and stability are "most important." "Three years ago 
Zimbabwe was on the brink of war," he said. And if war had 
come, there would have been no respect for democracy, nor 
human rights, and many would have been killed. "We are not 
pushing," he admitted. Instead, rather than risk creating 
enemies of its neighbors, such as happened in the case of 
Malawi during the civil war, at times of strain it is better 
to treat one's neighbors "with understanding." Some foreign 
NGO's are doing "more than they should," are interfering, 
something that occurs in Mozambique too, he added. The cost 
of democracy must not be chaos, reforms must not break 
society. Democratic change must be gradual, in 5-10 year 
timeframes. "We are not in the Olympic games." 
 
7. (C) Comment: Though the discussion focused on Zimbabwe, 
Simao clearly was thinking of Mozambique as well. 
LA LIME