US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3723

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003723 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION UPDATE: THE PLOT THICKENS IN YUNLIN 
COUNTY 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 03294 
     B. TAIPEI 03340 
     C. TAIPEI 03231 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Hotly contested Yunlin County (six seats) 
remains one of the most volatile races in the LY campaign. 
The fugitive Magistrate Chang Jung-wei is still missing, but 
he and his criminal case remain the focus of the election. 
Bitter infighting has broken out as candidates realize each 
side overnominated, although the situation is much worse for 
the Pan-Blue.  Unless the Pan-Blue gets its act together and 
rallies behind its strongest candidates, it seems likely that 
each side will take three seats (a gain of one seat for the 
Pan-Green).  End Summary. 
 
The Perils of Polling in Yunlin 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Much has changed in the month since AIT's last visit 
(Ref A) to hotly contested Yunlin County, but the outcome of 
the December Legislative Yuan (LY) election remains as 
unpredictable as ever.  Eighteen candidates registered in 
October to compete for Yunlin's six seats, and although none 
has officially given up yet, the number of serious contenders 
has narrowed to about ten or eleven, more than initially 
expected.  Several newspaper polls have come out in the last 
few weeks, but local observers are hesitant to make any 
predictions because polls are considered especially 
unreliable in Yunlin County.  As many as 60 percent of those 
surveyed indicate that they are still "undecided" or 
otherwise do not want to reveal their preference.  Tai Li-an, 
director of ERA Survey Research Center, a polling company, 
speculated that many people refuse to answer surveys in 
Yunlin "because they're afraid it's somebody (such as a 
vote-buyer or a gangster) checking up on them."  Yunlin is 
notorious for rampant vote-buying, voter intimidation, and 
the involvement of organized crime in local politics, factors 
that further complicate any efforts at predicting the outcome 
of the election. 
 
Likely to Split 3-3; Independents Remain a Wild Card 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
3. (C) Nevertheless, many people AIT spoke with were willing 
to forecast levels of overall support for each side and these 
predictions were remarkably consistent.  Observers on both 
sides said the Pan-Blue (including mavericks) would likely 
get 200,000 votes.  Estimates for the Pan-Green varied from 
130,000 to 150,000 votes.  These numbers would seem to favor 
the Pan-Blue, and both People First Party (PFP) County 
Director Wu Chih-chou and Kuomintang (KMT) County Chairman 
Huang Shang-wen said they are confident that Pan-Blue 
candidates can take four of Yunlin's six seats.  However, 
they both acknowledged that because there are more candidates 
running on the Pan-Blue side (as many as seven serious 
contenders against four on the Pan-Green side), there is a 
significant chance the vote might be spread too thinly, 
thereby allowing the Pan-Green to capture three seats. 
Pan-Green observers said their more disciplined nomination 
strategy and better "peipiao" vote-distribution make a 3-3 
split the most likely outcome in December.  (Note: The danger 
of overnomination and the role of peipiao in Taiwan's 
multi-member districts is explained more fully in Ref B.  End 
Note.) 
 
The Fugitive Magistrate Makes House Calls? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) Chang Jung-wei, the fugitive County Magistrate who 
disappeared in August after being implicated in a bribery 
scandal (Ref C), is still missing.  However it is not a 
secret that he is still in Yunlin, as Democratic Progressive 
 
SIPDIS 
Party (DPP) legislator Su Chih-fen noted: "Chang is still 
here, he's still the Magistrate, and he still has influence." 
 Rumors abound that he is involved to various degrees in the 
LY election campaign of his younger sister Chang Li-shan, a 
KMT maverick running without a party endorsement.  KMT 
Organizational Development Committee Chairman Liao Feng-te 
said in Taipei that he heard Chang is able to visit 
supporters around the county, and eludes capture by traveling 
in one of five identical vehicles.  Other rumors have him 
attending the funerals of family friends at night, or even 
suggest he might have set up a secret meeting with Chen 
Shui-bian to negotiate a pardon.  KMT County Chairman Huang 
was dismissive of such gossip, saying that "Chang is too 
famous to appear in public safely."  Huang acknowledged, 
however, that Chang is involved in his sister's election 
campaign, primarily "by lending her resources, and using his 
connections." 
 
Two Incumbents, the Sister and the Secretary 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Because of the Magistrate's support, most observers 
think Chang stands a very good chance of being elected. 
However, KMT incumbent Hsu Shu-po is the only Pan-Blue 
candidate whose seat is considered safe.  Huang said that 
Hsu's reliable support comes from his influence with the 
Farmers' Associations and the connections of his father, a 
former County Magistrate.  The other two Pan-Blue 
front-runners are PFP incumbent Chen Chien-sung and the KMT's 
Chang Shuo-wen, whose father is the Farmland Irrigation 
Association Chairman.  However, Chang is also the 
Magistrate's former secretary and much of his support comes 
from the Magistrate's faction, noted DPP legislator Su.  If 
the Magistrate is really urging his supporters to vote for 
his sister, Su said, "Chang Shuo-wen might lose his seat." 
 
The Loser, The Snubbed Incumbent, and Two Gangsters 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
6. (C) Most observers say that former legislator Hou 
Hui-hsien, the KMT's third nominee, is unlikely to win 
election, since she also ran and failed to take a seat in the 
2001 LY election.  Depending on how much support she gets, 
however, she might siphon off enough Pan-Blue votes to allow 
the Pan-Green to capture an extra seat.  KMT incumbent Tseng 
Tsai Mei-tso, who is reportedly upset at being passed over 
 
SIPDIS 
for nomination in favor of Hou despite having received the 
most KMT votes in 2001, has decided to run as an independent. 
 Tseng's level of support is abnormally high for an 
independent, and rumors abound as to the reasons why.  PFP 
County Director Wu speculated that DPP legislator Su is 
helping her in an attempt to win the support of Tseng's 
faction for her planned candidacy in next year's County 
Magistrate election.  However, when AIT met with Su, she had 
almost nothing positive to say about Tseng. 
 
7. (C) Gossip tabloids have offered another explanation for 
Tseng's performance.  The cover of a recent issue had photos 
 
SIPDIS 
of her meeting with alleged representatives of the 
Yamaguchi-gumi, a major Japanese Yakuza clan.  The article 
claimed that the group is actively helping her with her 
reelection campaign.  When asked about these rumors, KMT 
County Chairman Huang laughed and said, "Oh, that would be 
her little brother."  Tseng's brother, he explained, is a 
major figure in the Yunlin underworld.  The PFP's Wu said 
that her brother is known as "Blackbeard" and will ensure 
that she gets all the underground vote.  He added that he 
thinks she is more likely to win than Chang Li-shan, the 
Magistrate's sister.  Another gangster, former KMT legislator 
Lin Ming-yi, is running under the Nonpartisan Solidarity 
Union (NSU) banner.  Huang was dismissive of this threat, 
saying Lin's influence on the final outcome would not be 
large, because "he's out of money now and can't afford to buy 
votes anymore." 
 
The DPP's Underground Radio Snake-Oil Salesman 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
8. (C) DPP incumbent Lin Kuo-hua's seat is widely considered 
safe.  Peipiao will help one, and maybe both, of the other 
nominees win election.  Although he was considered the weaker 
candidate by observers in October, Chen Hsien-chung now looks 
the more likely of the two to win election.  The KMT's Huang 
said this is because Chen is constantly reminding voters that 
he was personally asked by Chen Shui-bian to run for 
election.  The other DPP nominee, Lin Shu-shan, is less 
likely to win, said County Information Director Hung Po-lin, 
a KMT appointee, because he is best known for running an 
unlicensed radio station on which he sells overpriced vitamin 
supplements of dubious medicinal value.  Huang added that 
because of Lin's negative image, DPP voters might not abide 
by a peipiao scheme that demands they vote for him.  DPP 
legislator Su was silent about Lin, explaining her decision 
to help only Chen's campaign by saying "we're from the same 
hometown." 
 
The TSU's Activist Councilwoman 
------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Su is also actively campaigning on behalf of her 
friend, TSU County Councilwoman Yin Ling-ying, who has been 
her ally in her long battle with Magistrate Chang Jung-wei. 
Over the past few years, Su and Yin have opposed many of 
Chang's construction and development plans on environmental 
as well as ethical grounds, accusing him of taking bribes and 
giving contracts to friends and relatives.  His current legal 
predicament was the result of Yin's efforts.  Her popularity 
with voters has been boosted by the bad publicity the 
Magistrate gets, so Su and Yin take every available 
opportunity they can find to criticize Chang.  However, 
another TSU County Councilmember, Lee Chien-sheng, said he is 
worried that the DPP will try to squeeze out Yin if it does 
not have enough votes for all three of its own candidates. 
Information Director Hung offered a similar assessment, but 
said the attack had already begun.  He explained that Lin 
Kuo-hua and his allies on the County Council have started 
criticizing her for being too obstructionist, thereby keeping 
needed development and jobs out of Yunlin. 
 
Comment: Infighting to be Expected 
---------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) The type of bitter infighting that is breaking out in 
Yunlin County is typical of an overnominated district in 
Taiwan's multi-member single non-transferable vote system 
(Ref B).  Candidates on both sides have all but stopped 
campaigning against their opponents in the other camp in 
favor of trying to steal easier votes from their "allies". 
The degree to which parties on either side can get voters to 
rally around their strongest candidates and drop the weakest 
will determine the final makeup of Yunlin's LY seats.  The 
Pan-Green side will have a much easier job of this as they 
only have four candidates.  If the DPP were to drop one of 
its candidates, the Pan-Green would be all but assured of 
taking three seats.  Given the chaos on the Pan-Blue side, 
however, this might not be necessary or even desirable.  If 
the Pan-Blue divides its votes particularly poorly, the 
Pan-Green even stands a slim chance of getting all four 
candidates elected. 
 
11. (C) The biggest variable is how the vote will be split 
among Pan-Blue candidates, and that is difficult to predict 
until after the vote-buying has begun in earnest.  The KMT 
would not likely be able to sacrifice a candidate 
successfully even if it tried.  KMT candidates are far less 
disciplined than DPP candidates, and the sacrificed candidate 
would likely continue campaigning independently, just like 
all the mavericks who lost in the KMT primaries.  With seven 
serious candidates on the Pan-Blue side (with and without 
party endorsements), it will not be easy to hold the 
Pan-Green to its current two seats, even with the expected 
advantage in votes (200,000 vs. as little as 130,000 on the 
Pan-Green side).  The most likely outcome still appears to be 
three seats for each side, which will represent a gain of one 
seat for the Pan-Green in its quest to build a majority in 
the LY. 
PAAL