US embassy cable - 04AMMAN9280

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009280 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2014 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, PREL, ECON, KMPI, JO 
SUBJECT: GOJ DIPS IN PUBLIC APPROVAL RATING 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 08794 
     B. AMMAN 05725 
 
Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (U) According to a late October public opinion poll, only 
16.8% of Jordanians believed that the government would be 
greatly successful in achieving its priorities, down from 
23.3% of those surveyed four months earlier (ref b).  Asked 
about the October 25 Cabinet reshuffle, 58% of Jordanians 
thought it would improve the government's performance. 
Officials hope that recent moves toward launching a much 
publicized administrative reform program will boost the 
public's confidence in the government.  End Summary. 
 
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DOWNWARD SLIDE 
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2.  (U) A poll conducted between October 28 and November 1 by 
the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS), a think-tank 
affiliated with the University of Jordan, showed a noticeable 
drop in public opinion of the government's performance. 
Approximately one year after the formation of Prime Minister 
Faisal al-Fayez's first Cabinet, only 16.8% of a national 
sample of 1,410 Jordanians thought that the government was 
able to "shoulder its responsibilities to a great extent," 
compared to 23.3% surveyed by CSS after the government had 
been in office 200 days (ref b).  Among Jordanian "opinion 
leaders" (including prominent journalists, academics, 
business leaders, and heads of professional associations), 
this percentage decreased even more markedly, from 31.8% to 
19.6% over the same time period. 
 
3.  (U) Rating the government's progress on specific tasks, 
both the national sample and opinion leaders gave relatively 
high approval ratings for GOJ attention to strengthening 
women's role in society (80.8% and 70.2% respectively), 
activating the role of the private sector in the economy 
(73.5% and 56.1% ), increasing the level of investment (67.8% 
and 64.4%), and managing foreign policy (69.5% and 57.8%). 
Each of these figures, however, was lower than the 
corresponding percentages in the previous CSS poll.  Opinions 
on other government priorities were more negative.  Only 
33.1% of the national sample and 29.9% of opinion leaders 
thought the government had made progress on reducing poverty, 
while 29.1% and 34.8%, respectively, saw positive movement in 
lowering unemployment.  Approximately 29% of both groups 
believed the government would achieve a modern political 
parties law, although higher numbers -- 36.9% and 50.4%, 
respectively -- thought the GOJ would complete a "modern" 
electoral law. 
 
4.  (U) The CSS poll also included questions on the 
reshuffled Cabinet announced October 25 (ref a).  Among the 
national sample, 58% said the new Cabinet would improve the 
government's performance.  Opinion leaders were less 
optimistic, with 45% responding that the reshuffle would 
result in better government performance. 
 
5.  (U) Dr. Fares Braizat, head of the CSS polling unit, told 
the press that the drop in the government's approval rating 
was "expected."  According to Braizat, the 21 polls conducted 
since 1996 on government performance showed a pattern of 
public opinion dropping after the first 100 days of a 
government being in office.  Although ratings for PM Fayez 
and his team were actually higher after 200 days than after 
the first 100 days, this was an anomaly, said Braizat, caused 
by several one-time factors (see ref b).  He noted that in 
another recent CSS poll, Jordanians listed corruption, 
unemployment, and poverty as 
the top three priorities for the government.  "The important 
issue in these areas is that the government is not being 
perceived as successful, and the people's confidence in the 
government's ability to tackle these issues is low," Braizat 
added. 
 
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LAUNCHING PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM 
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6.  (U) Hoping to brighten the public's perception of the 
government, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Government 
Performance Marwan Muasher told the press November 3 that 
there was "no going back" on administrative reforms and that 
after conducting studies, it was now "time for 
implementation."  He said the reform program would revamp the 
public sector according to four main principles:  developing 
mechanisms to achieve concrete results, ensuring 
accountability, decentralizing decision making, and 
guaranteeing good utilization of financial resources. 
Muasher said the GOJ would prepare over a period of eight 
months a "national agenda," in cooperation with a large 
number of public and private sector institutions, to define 
Jordan's economic, social and political shape for the coming 
10 years. 
 
7.  (U)  As part of the administrative reform program, 
representatives from 13 ministries participated in a capacity 
building workshop on November 10-11 co-sponsored by the GOJ 
and the World Bank.  The workshop sought to teach government 
employees how to design and build a results-based monitoring 
and evaluation system.  According to World Bank expert Ray 
Rist, who led the workshop, "Jordan is poised for a dramatic 
breakthrough" in public sector reform.  He and other 
analysts, however, noted several obstacles to progress, 
including centralization of decision making, a focus on 
technical issues and strategies rather than achieving 
results, and inefficient distribution of both human and 
financial resources. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C) As the CSS poll demonstrates, Jordanians will 
continue to lose confidence in the government if it does not 
make progress in the three areas the public cares about most: 
 poverty, unemployment and corruption.  While public sector 
reform is clearly a laudable goal that should help improve 
the business climate and control graft, it cannot be an 
alternative for GOJ action on economic and political reform. 
 
9.  (U)  Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through 
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page. 
HALE