US embassy cable - 04GUAYAQUIL1323

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 001323 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.  12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ETRD, EC 
SUBJECT:  BUCARAM BROTHER DENIES ANY DEAL ON RETURN 
 
REF:  GUAYAQUIL 00489 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  On November 16, former Presidential 
candidate Jacobo Bucaram shared his views with Guayaquil CG 
on the situation within the Roldosista Party (PRE) headed by 
his brother, ex-President Abdala Bucaram.  Jacobo offered no 
predictions about the return of his exiled brother from 
Panama and claimed no deals have been made with President 
Gutierrez to make this happen.  He denied any connection 
between the PRE's support for the President in his fight 
against impeachment, and Abdala's possible return.  As 
usual, Jacobo denied any further personal political 
ambitions and was most animated when discussing agricultural 
issues, expressing concern about the effect of an FTA with 
the U.S. on Ecuadorian farmers.  End Summary. 
 
Don't Look at Me 
---------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) As is his wont, Jacobo made it perfectly clear 
once again that he is not a party insider and has no real 
interest in politics.  Explaining his own relatively 
impressive political history, he said there were certain 
things he had to do out of obligation to his younger 
brother, Abdala.  He expressed a much stronger personal 
preference for his position as rector of the Agricultural 
University and as a private agriculturalist. 
 
No Deal on Return 
----------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Jacobo said his brother Abdala would return when 
he was ready to face the legal situation confronting him in 
Ecuador and suggested that this President could not offer 
sufficient insulation from possible prosecution on pending 
corruption charges. 
 
PRE Down After Local Elections 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  Bucaram acknowledged the PRE had lost considerable 
ground in the October 17 sectional elections (reftel), 
expressing neither surprise nor offering excuses.  Without 
Abdala, the party had no real leadership, he said.  When CG 
pointed out that PRE candidate for mayor of Guayaquil, Jimmy 
Jairala, had received nearly 30 percent of the vote running 
against popular PSC incumbent mayor Jaime Nebot, Bucaram 
replied that was because he was Jimmy Jairala, TV 
personality, and not because he was representing the PRE. 
 
2006 Presidential Contenders Don't Include Bucaram 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
5.  (SBU) He stated that Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN) was clearly 
the front runner for the 2006 presidential elections, helped 
by his second place finish in 2002, large sums of cash and 
an organization that is already working to accomplish this. 
He said former vice president Leon Roldos would probably run 
again but he gave him no chance of winning.  Bucaram claimed 
that previous PSC candidate for President, Xavier Neira, 
would be a strong candidate, saying that among the 
contenders last time Jacobo found him to be the most 
intelligent and capable.  Bucaram also did not rule out 
another run for the presidency by PSC Chief Leon Febres- 
Cordero (LFC) who he said would also be a strong candidate. 
LFC has "so much power in so many places" that he could 
conceivably win the presidency again.  Jacobo said he had no 
interest in running and did not offer a name for a PRE 
candidate other than Abdala, should he return. 
 
 
Worried About FTA Ag Impact 
--------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Jacobo also commented on the recently completed 
fifth round of the Free trade negotiations in Guayaquil. 
Although he believes that a free trade agreement will and 
should be passed, he also expressed his strong concern about 
the potential damage this will bring to the small scale milk 
and cattle producers of Ecuador.  He claimed that some three 
million people would be negatively affected by damage to 
those sectors.  He did not dwell on the issue of U.S. 
agricultural subsidies, simply stating that small Ecuadorian 
producers were not competitive and were not likely to become 
so in the short term. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Jacobo's apparent lack of personal passion for 
Abdala's return stands in stark contrast to the party's 
official devotion to such an event.  He strikes us as 
realistic about the prospects of any deal that might bring 
Abdala back to Ecuador, where he faces open legal charges, 
and gave the impression that his brother was not the kind of 
person to place himself at risk.  He gave no indication that 
any deal has been made with the President or his supporters 
nor does he give the impression that if one were to be 
negotiated he would be a player in the process.  Bucaram's 
favorable mention of Neira, was surprising to us.  Most 
Guayaquil observers that we have spoken to do not share such 
a positive view. 
 
8.  (SBU) Jacobo Bucaram bears the name but doesn't carry 
the flame of Abdala.  Although he agreed to run for 
President in 2002, he convincingly claims no real interest 
in politics; and his public and private actions support that 
position.  Jacobo does not act as a spokesperson for the PRE 
or seek out the press.  In conversation he only warmed 
noticeably when discussing immediate family, agriculture and 
his 200-plus hectare farm where he experiments with various 
crops and raises livestock. 
 
HERBERT