US embassy cable - 04NEWDELHI7395

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007395 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2104 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, ENRG, IN, PK, IR, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: ONE YEAR INTO THE INDO-PAK CEASE-FIRE: OPEN-ENDED 
TROOP WITHDRAWAL AND 98 PROPOSED CBMS 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: As India and Pakistan mark the one year 
anniversary of their Line of Control (LOC) cease-fire in 
Kashmir, more Indian troop redeployments and other Indo-Pak 
progress are "only natural" if cross-border terrorism and 
infiltration by Pakistan remain low, MEA Joint Secretary 
(Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) Arun K. Singh told PolCouns and 
Poloff on November 19.  Singh remarked that the ongoing 
redeployment provided President Musharraf with a clear 
example of progress on Kashmir to cite to his domestic 
critics.  He insisted that PM Manmohan Singh's recent public 
statements precluding redrawing borders or religious 
partition defined the parameters for progress in Kashmir. 
Singh also indicated a more flexible position on an 
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline as part of a "wide trade 
context" for energy relations by declaring that Pakistani MFN 
status for India would be welcome but not mandatory. End 
Summary. 
 
Kashmir 
------- 
 
2.  (C) The PM's recent statements precluding redrawing 
Kashmir's borders or partitioning along religious lines 
authoritatively enunciated India's parameters for any future 
progress on Kashmir, according to Singh.  He characterized 
the recent troop redeployment as an example of progress on 
Kashmir that Musharraf can cite to domestic critics. 
Although the recent troop redeployment announced prior to the 
PM's visit to Kashmir was a one time plan, Singh said it was 
"only natural" to expect more such progress down the line. 
If infiltration remains low, he suggested, the logic of the 
PM's declaration suggests that India can withdraw more 
troops.  He said the onus was on Pakistan now to continue the 
process of ultimately ending infiltration, without which 
there would be "no reason" for troops to remain.  Singh 
agreed that the one-year anniversary of the LOC cease-fire 
was significant, commenting that the Composite Dialogue could 
continue "indefinitely" provided there is no increase in 
infiltration or major terrorist event. 
 
3.  (C) Responding to our characterization of Pakistani 
Ambassador Aziz is an "ally" in the Indo-Pak process, Singh 
said he was not confident in Aziz or the GOP MFA generally, 
labeling it as "more conservative" than the army.  Regarding 
the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), Singh said 
Pakistan "overplayed its hand just like they did with the 
Taliban." The Joint Secretary remarked that the GOI had given 
the Hurriyat "a long rope which has now reached the tension 
point" and "one more tug will break" it. 
 
4.  (C) Singh shared with PolCouns (septel) a list of 98 
suggestions India put forward for Indo-Pak cooperation, which 
also indicates areas of Pakistani inaction or delay.  He 
stated that 13 CBMs were agreed, India has enacted 20 
unilaterally, 20 are under discussion, and that Islamabad has 
not responded to the rest. 
 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad Bus 
------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Singh argued that the wrangling over permissible 
documents to enable travel across the LOC was a convenient 
excuse used by Pakistan to delay the opening of the 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus route.  He cited various groups, 
including Kashmiri journalists, who already travel across the 
border with standard passports and visas to argue that 
nothing else was necessary.  He denied plans for any 
alternative document. 
 
Pipeline 
-------- 
 
6.  (C) Singh indicated new flexibility in the GOI position 
on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, specifically stating 
that the GOI no longer will require that Islamabad grant New 
Delhi MFN status in exchange for a pipeline deal.  He 
reiterated India's requirements that the pipeline be part of 
a wider trade agreement, must be secure, and that Pakistan 
must give assurances of reliable gas supplies to India.  The 
GOI would welcome MFN status but would be satisfied if 
Pakistan makes adequate trade concessions elsewhere, such as 
additional products on the positive list for import from 
India. 
 
Baglihar Dam 
------------ 
 
7.  (C) Characterizing a "Dawn" article stating that India 
would complete the Baglihar Dam by April 2005 as "hype", 
Singh said he expected the dam to be completed no earlier 
than 2008.  In response to Pakistan's opposition of the 
project, Singh said the GOI had asked for "substantive 
objections" and had not received any response. 
BLAKE